The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Question marks are abound in the Rams’ running back room. Is Zach Evans as talented an NFL RB as he looked in high school and college? Is Darrell Henderson ready to resurrect his career in his second L.A. stint? Unless we think Kyren Williams is a transcendent RB talent (which we can’t rule out), we have to think some of his success is due to the Rams’ offensive line and scheme.
They are No. 2 in rushing FPOE, No. 5 in EPA per attempt, and No. 6 in rushing success rate. Meanwhile, only one team allows more yards after contact than the Steelers. The combination of Evans, Henderson, and Royce Freeman could have success against Pittsburgh’s defense.
We can’t bet against Cooper Kupp or, increasingly, Puka Nacua — particularly when the Passing Game Matchup Rater likes all of L.A.’s alignment-based matchups.
Even so, the Rams might have an easier time running the ball than throwing it.
The Steelers are a top-10 unit in pressure rate, average WR separation, and EPA per pass attempt. Los Angeles also ranks highly in some of these passing metrics, but might be better off trying to keep their defense off the field. This isn’t because the Steelers are a very scary offensive team, but because the Rams’ defense has a few big weaknesses.
Only three teams generate less pressure, and L.A. is also in the bottom 10 in average WR separation and passing boom rate allowed. That said, they are good at limiting opponents’ passing game FPOE.
Pittsburgh might be better served by their running game, if only because they excel at evading tackles and picking up yards after contact.
The Rams are well below average at limiting evaded tackles, but do stop yards after contact well. They are also good at limiting rushing success rate. L.A.’s passing defense is much more exploitable than their rushing defense, but Pittsburgh’s passing offense is less capable of exploiting the Rams’ weaknesses.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
We’re still waiting for Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout game. There’s perhaps no better opportunity than a matchup against Arizona.
No team’s pass rush has a lower pressure rate, and only one team allows a higher passing success rate — a metric in which the Seahawks are elite. On the other hand, the Cardinals are arguably worse against the run.
Arizona allows a positive EP play on nearly half the rushing attempts they face — the highest rate in the league. Kenneth Walker has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games, and has a good chance to keep that streak going.
At least one reason Walker could have a big game is that the Seahawks match up well with the Cardinals defensively.
Seattle’s defense is not that strong against the pass, but luckily for them, Arizona’s offense is not that strong at passing. They have one of the top offensive lines and their receivers get open, but neither of those factors have yet led to passing game success.
The Cardinals have been much more effective on the ground, but this is also where the Seahawks are best defensively.
Seattle is susceptible to big rushing plays. If there were a healthy player on the Cardinals’ active roster who could take advantage of this, we would have more hope that Arizona could cover the current 9.5-point spread.
