The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
This week we’re trying out a slightly different format. To give a holistic view of the way each team might try to attack, and to present the best parts of the article even quicker, I’m going to post the team numbers at the top of each matchup. Below that, I’ll highlight a few key things to pay attention to.
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
- Cleveland’s defense is among the best in the league, but is actually below average in terms of fantasy efficiency allowed. The reason they tend to elicit poor fantasy performances is because opposing teams have trouble moving the ball and getting significant play volume. Therefore, the Browns rank first in total passing game EP allowed. However, a team that can keep drives going — like the Seahawks and their 57% passing success rate — might be able to exploit some of Cleveland’s defensive weaknesses.
- Most of those weaknesses are on the rushing side. They rank 26th in yards after contact allowed and 29th in evasion rate allowed, which leads to a No. 19 ranking in rushing boom rate allowed and a No. 22 ranking in rushing FPOE allowed. Kenneth Walker could do some damage if he can break free for a few long runs.
- Cleveland enters a matchup against a beatable Seattle pass defense with one big hole on the offensive side of the ball — they are again without Deshaun Watson. Seattle’s rushing defense is a bit stronger, but does tend to give up big plays. Jerome Ford is questionable, but says he intends to play. After suffering an ankle injury last week, his workload may be limited even if he does suit up. Kareem Hunt should expect to get additional opportunities.
