Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the tutorial/walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Please note that this article will be published in three parts this week. With Part 3 publishing on Sunday morning.
Week 5 Matchups
Titans at Colts
Both teams have a number of players well-positioned to make the most of their matchups in this game.
For the Titans, Treylon Burks (who has already been ruled out for the game) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine match up very favorably with the Colt’s defense as both players draw ratings in the low 70s. With Burks sidelined, this will open up an opportunity for Chris Moore to see increased playing time and opportunity. Moore operates with similar alignment tendencies to Burks and as a result also matches up strongly against Indianapolis.
The Colts are allowing opposing WRs to score 130% of points per game (PPG), and while DeAndre Hopkins’ alignment tendencies produce a matchup rating of 56, he’s poised to have his best game of the season. Through four games, Hopkins ranks WR31 in expected points (EP) per game but has been extremely inefficient. His strong WOPR, however, speaks to the potential for a breakout in future games.
Josh Downs’ matchup rating of 80 is one of the highest of the week and makes him an intriguing option for DFS or teams in need of an unexpected starter. Downs faces a Titans’ defense that is allowing WRs to score 120% of PPG. He spends most of his time in the slot and will oppose Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Both players are allowing approximately 6.0 PPG on direct targets and the Titans defense is surrendering 0.2 more points per target (PPT) than the league average.
Michael Pittman’s matchup rating of 64 also paints a favorable picture as does his