RotoViz subscribers know that winning often hinges on meticulous analysis of various factors: player statistics, team dynamics, and even the whims of Mother Nature herself. Weather conditions, often overlooked, can play a pivotal role in any game’s outcome. A few of the most well-known and craziest examples include the Fog Bowl, the Tuck Rule Game, and the Ice Bowl.
The NFL is unique in its willingness to embrace the elements, with most of its venues exposed to all weather conditions, which can dramatically impact fantasy football production. Any NFL enthusiast has seen quarterbacks skillfully navigating needle-narrow gusts while kickers combat cascading snowflakes during the chill of winter. Football allows for anything except lightning, and severe weather conditions may have a sizable impact on a game but can go completely unnoticed by even the best projections beforehand. So, keeping one eye on the coming weather heading into the weekend can be valuable.
For this report, I wanted to recognize the nuanced impact that precipitation, snow, wind, and temperature variations can have on fantasy football outcomes. I didn’t want to exaggerate or speak too anecdotally about these effects. These were my primary sources: “How Weather Can Impact NFL Games and Football” by Fox Weather (2022), “Weather and the NFL” by Rory Houghton-Berry, Edwin Park, and Kathy Pierce of Stanford (2016), “How Weather Affects Betting” by Covers.com (2023), and “Analyzing the Effect of Weather in the NFL” by The Spax (2020). Based on these sources, game predictions are compared to predetermined thresholds and ranges, and my opinions have been mostly disregarded. All forecasts are from The Weather Channel. All times are Eastern Standard.
GAMES THAT WILL BE PLAYED IN DOMES
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – 1 p.m. Sunday – AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers – 8:20 p.m. Sunday – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions – 8:15 p.m. Sunday – Ford Field, Detroit, MI
GAMES EXPECTED TO BE PLAYED IN EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI. Expected temps of 36-37, 0-1°, 0% chance of precipitation (0.00 in. expected), wind WNW-NNW @ 6-8 MPH (as of 12:35 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders – 1 p.m. Sunday – FedEx Field, Landover, MA. Expected temps of 68-71°, 4-8% chance of precipitation (0.00 in. expected), wind E-SE @ 4 MPH (as of 12:59 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: The chance for rain has raised, and there is now up to a 30% chance, but there is still no accumulation expected. This is not enough to recategorize the game.
Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. Sunday – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Expected temps of 79-83°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind SW-WSW @ 9 MPH (as of 1:01 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes
Currently, the expected wind speeds are in the light range, but they are very near the 10 MPH threshold where wind speeds are considered moderate. We should monitor this, as a shift would downgrade the conditions to a fair/good level. Even if that were to occur, the effects would be pretty minimal.
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 p.m. Sunday – Lumen Field, Seattle, WA. Expected temps of 50-53°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind N @ 5-6 MPH (as of 1:04 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO. Expected temps of 27-28°, 3-15% chance of precipitation (0.00 in. expected), wind NNW-NNE @ 5-6 MPH (as of 1:08 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes
Off the cuff, these temperatures may seem cold enough to compel some change in performance, but historical data doesn’t bear that out. The threshold where the gameplay begins to become notably affected is at 25°, and as of right now game time temps are expected to remain just above that.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers – 4:25 p.m. Sunday – Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA. Expected temps of 69-74°, 0% chance of precipitation, wind NNW @ 6-8 MPH (as of 1:11 a.m. Saturday). Sunday Update: No Significant Changes
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. Sunday – Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN. Expected temps of 68-71°, 24-49% chance of precipitation (0.00-0.02 in. expected), wind WSW-WNW @ 7 MPH (as of 12:45 a.m. Saturday). At present, the primary concern in this game is precipitation, which is expected to manifest as high as 0.02 inches per hour, which is considered a light rain. Any rainfall can reduce passing accuracy, passing yardage, route precision, catching, ball security, and field goal accuracy, amplified on longer attempts. The expected rainfall is more or less a light sprinkle, so the effects would be relatively minor. Sunday Update: The rain has all but cleared out of the forecast, dropping to a 15% chance with 0.00″/hour accumulation. This is good news, and the game conditions have been recategorized to “excellent”.
