The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools — mainly the Advanced Team Stat Explorer — to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
This week we’re trying out a slightly different format. To give a holistic view of the way each team might try to attack, and to present the best parts of the article even quicker, I’m going to post the team numbers at the top of each matchup. Below that, I’ll highlight a few key things to pay attention to.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
- Curtis Samuel is the only notable offensive player whose injury status we should watch, but Philadelphia has multiple injuries in the secondary. This could present an opportunity for Washington to score points through the air, even though the advanced stats don’t paint such a rosy picture.
- The Eagles are one of the most efficient rushing teams, and the Commanders have a below-average rushing defense by almost every metric. This is a decent matchup for D’Andre Swift, who is also the last running back to score a rushing touchdown against Washington.
- The Commanders like to pass the ball regardless, but we could see even more attempts from them in a game in which Philadelphia is favored by seven. On the other hand, Washington kept the game close in their last meeting — in a divisional game, one can never rule that out. Still, only two teams drop back to pass more often than the Commanders, and that’s unlikely to change here.
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
- Zack Moss is questionable, but was already starting to take a back seat to Jonathan Taylor. If Moss can’t play, expect Taylor to consolidate nearly all the RB work. The Saints’ run defense is tough, but they do give up more than 2.0 yards before contact per attempt. Taylor is averaging only 0.8 yards before contact this season, but may be able to boost that number against New Orleans.
- The Saints have questionable tags all over their offense, including Taysom Hill, and Michael Thomas, and multiple offensive linemen. Hill has started recording some targets as a tight end, but with Juwan Johnson set to return, Hill may step back into a more hybrid role if he does suit up. Thomas practiced in full, but was later added to the injury report with an illness. His absence could open up additional targets for Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave. The Colts field an above-average pass defense that ranks No. 5 in boom rate allowed and No. 8 in total FPOE allowed. New Orleans will need their receivers at the top of their games.
- Where Indianapolis is beatable is on the ground. Despite four straight RB1 weeks, Alvin Kamara has yet to have a game with positive FPOE, though that could easily change against a Colts’ defense that allows 5.0 rushing FPOE per game.
