“There must have been a moment, at the beginning, where we could have said — no. But somehow we missed it.”
― Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead
Rosencrantz and Guildenstern must constantly struggle with not being the main characters in their own story. Worse, they experience the nagging sensation of having arrived in a moment with no antecedent and with motivations that do not stem from any conscious prior decision.
I trust we have a stronger sense of our origins (as characters and as fantasy managers), but we can still identify with that feeling. When perusing at lineup decisions ahead of Week 8 and staring at the hole in your roster that is Jahan Dotson, it’s hard not to lament. There must have been a moment when I could have said — no.
Of course, the decision to target Dotson was an evidence-based one, and sometimes those will miss every bit as badly as a random, uninformed opinion. It’s not so much even the miss itself as the sheer size of the miss that baffles. Dotson had red flags that were balanced by upside, but even a worst-case scenario should not have looked like this. This seems like an Eric Bieniemy-level disaster or a Sam Howell apocalypse.
A brief digression: my Main Event portfolio has been on fire the last several weeks, and the playoffs appear likely in a high percentage of leagues. I feel good about this for the obvious reasons, but also because my MEs usually act as a fairly accurate proxy for the subscriber portfolios. The De’Von Achane injury put a temporary dent in the Underdog results . . . but they came roaring back in Week 8 with some of my highest-exposure/visibility busts racking up huge scores, specifically Trey McBride and Dotson.
I imagine that readers share my love/hate relationship with not being able to cut your misses in best ball. Occasionally those misses continue to plague you forever, but frequently they carry a roster at the crucial moment. There was a moment this year when my McBride exposure was nearly 100% in redraft, and yet those roster spots become too important to waste on a backup TE in a bad offense. Alas.
The same is not true in best ball where that 34% exposure is going to stay right at the level, hell or high water, to the very bitter end.
My fantasy philosophy focuses on buying talent and uncertainty and selling expensive workload and comfort. The thing you cannot do is assume rational decision-making on the part of the coaching staff because you will not get it, at least not consistently. And you’ll be left embittered and tilting at windmills. Sometimes you just miss, even if you retain a sneaking suspicion that it wasn’t entirely your fault.
If you’re a fellow McBride enthusiast, this was an interesting note coming into the week:
- Trey McBride was tied with Marquise Brown for the team lead in targets per route (26%) and easily led with 2.07 yards per route. Unfortunately, his 32% route participation ranked sixth on the team.
- Zach Ertz was running 70% of the routes and yet his YPRR came in at less than half McBride’s number. Rondale Moore was at 72% of routes with a minuscule 0.61.
As Ertz was placed on IR, I got a lot of messages this week about it being McBride time, but I doubt many of those missives anticipated a 10-95-1 line. Is it a good time to note that McBride runs a sub-4.6 forty and gained 1,167 yards from scrimmage in his final year at Colorado State? Or that the Cardinals aren’t, ahem, competitive in 2023?
Much of McBride’s production did come late and the TD was a particularly egregious example of the NFL’s decision to let offensive teammates push the ball carrier in the back. He dropped a key third-down conversion opportunity when the game was still in doubt. (I’m sure you can hear the mental soundtrack as I type this: Keep your expectations in check, keep your expectations in check, keep your . . . please throw to McBride again next week!)
As we tick closer to the 2023 debut of Kyler Murray, the Cardinals appear to have found a building block. I’ll discuss Dotson in more detail when we reach the Commanders portion of the article.
A Moment When We Could Have Said No
I usually structure the Monday article around the content from the most recent episodes of Stealing Bananas and RotoViz Overtime, but I’m making a small detour this week after coming down with a serious flu that wrecked my throat. Ben and I will record later in the week, while the incomparable Blair Andrews was kind enough to fill in for me on OT.
As is always the case, I’ll be contrasting some elements from the Monday Review with my viewer notes that won’t show up for you in the box score.
