The pace of play at the team level is instructive in fantasy football. The faster a team is, the more plays they will tend to run. The more plays a team tends to run, the more players on those teams tend to score. Using the RotoViz Pace Tool, we can see the tendencies of every team in these areas so far in 2023.
I toggled to neutral game scripts (-7 to +7 point differential, excluding the last two minutes of each half) and launched a quick investigation, and these are the results after Week 2.
Remember that the information is still highly volatile after a two-game sample, and the information is already incorporated into the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP). But I like to see this information in case I want to give this projection area a little extra weight.
New England, Indianapolis, and the Los Angeles Chargers were the top three teams in neutral script seconds/snap. The presence of the Patriots in this group continues to be a small surprise, although it is worth considering that they did undergo a change at offensive coordinator. It’s also notable that Bill O’Brien has a prior connection with QB Mac Jones, as he served as his offensive coordinator in college, reducing the customary impact of adjusting to a new system. There is also an overlap in the systems used by New England and Alabama as Nick Saban emerged from the Belichick tree after serving as his DC with the Cleveland Browns. After a Week 1 that appeared to be anomalous, the Patriots were third in pace of play in Week 2. Twenty-eight percent of their plays have been from the no-huddle, the third most in the league.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are getting the full Kellen Moore experience so far, as they have already begun to align with the historical tendencies of their new OC by being fast and calling many offensive plays. They are probably the least surprising squad in the top three thus far.
I used total game stats rather than neutral script stats to uncover the three teams with the most offensive snaps: Houston, the Los Angeles Rams, and Cleveland.
It’s uncommon, but there are cases where a team’s total number of plays and their neutral script seconds/snap seem opposed. One reason for this could be that the team consistently achieves first downs but requires more plays to do so. Another reason could be that they have a higher time of possession than their opponent (these two factors do correlate, but a team’s defensive performance can also affect TOP). The Rams are an excellent example of this, as they have the second slowest neutral script seconds/snap but the second most plays in the league. However, they lead the NFL in first downs at 27.5 per game and have the highest TOP at 36:17 per game.
It’s possible that a change in speed during plays played outside of the neutral script could also be a contributing factor. For example, teams may become hurried and frantic when they try to catch up. The Rams have played 32.2% of their plays outside of a neutral script, which isn’t an enormous amount, but it’s not insignificant either.
And yet another factor that could swing this, particularly on a short sample, is overtime, which would increase the total number of plays without affecting the seconds/snap.
Specific game context is important, particularly in a two-game sample, so while these are evidential indicators, they are not yet highly predictive. In this selection, I’ll highlight three games that feature fast-paced teams and three that match up with slower-paced squads so far this season.
PLUS PACE MATCHUPS
This week, there are quite a few matchups where the neutral script seconds/snap and the total team plays are not neatly aligned, so I’ve focused on the most significant outliers in each category. As the season unfolds and more data points are available, I estimate the two categories will somewhat align.
JACKSONVILLE VS. HOUSTON
Notable Players: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram (JAX); QB C.J. Stroud, RB Dameon Pierce, WR Nico Collins, WR Robert Woods, WR Tank Dell, TE Dalton Schultz (HOU)
Each team has already had one game to keep pace with Indianapolis, which is second in neutral script seconds/snap. The Texans have played from a deficit for approximately 102 of a possible 120 minutes thus far, and only 38 of 161 total plays in 2023 have been from a neutral game script, which is an exceptionally minute test group from which to study. Houston speeds up enormously under the gun, snapping the ball 5.9 seconds faster while trailing from a negative script.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville maintains a quick pace regardless of script thus far, reinforcing that their default is a bit faster than average. This synchronizes nicely with expectation, as Jacksonville is a full 10-point favorite in this one, meaning both teams should be playing on the speedier side if things go according to plan. The knot in the rope would come if Houston can keep pace with Jacksonville on the scoreboard, in which case they may slow things down.
