The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a freeform space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.
Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.
Because we are very early in the season, the numbers you will see below are still weighted more toward last season. As we get deeper into 2023, the importance of 2022 will wane. At some point in the near future I will remove the 2022 data entirely.
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ performance in Week 1 wasn’t quite what we expected, but I noted last week that the Jets presented a tough matchup. The Raiders should be more accommodating. Only two teams have given up more EPA per passing play. Only three teams have allowed a higher success rate. The Bills meanwhile rank fifth in the league in EPA per passing play and sixth in passing success rate (the rate of plays that produce positive expected points added).
Despite struggling on offense, Buffalo did create pressure at a high rate last week. Only the Titans and Cowboys had a higher pressure rate. This could spell trouble for Las Vegas’ middling offensive line. (However it’s worth noting that the Raiders ranked No. 2 in pass blocking points earned per snap in Week 1.) If they can hold off the pass rush, however, Las Vegas’ receivers do have favorable matchups.
I opined last week that Buffalo’s rushing defense was susceptible to the big play, and Breece Hall proved me right on his first two carries. Josh Jacobs isn’t nearly as explosive as even a post-ACL-tear Hall – the Jets star hit the 20 mph mark multiple times last week – but he will still hope to exploit Buffalo’s penchant for missing tackles. No team in the NFL allows more yards after contact per attempt.
