Welcome to Going Deep! This weekly article will make use of charting data, advanced metrics, and other RotoViz tools — specifically the newly released Passing Game Matchup Rater — to help readers better understand the challenges facing wide receivers and tight ends in the coming week. As my process makes heavy use of the Matchup Rater, I’d highly recommend that you set aside half an hour to watch the below walkthrough and take a spin through the tool.
Passing Game Matchup Rater Tutorial
Week 2 Matchups
Colts at Texans
This is a particularly tough matchup to evaluate given that its results will largely hinge upon the performances of two rookie quarterbacks in their second NFL games. (As of the time of publishing, C.J. Stroud is listed as questionable. So his status remains up in the air.) Using information from the last five games of 2022 and the first game of 2023, the matchup favors the Houston pass catchers. All of the team’s notable wide receivers draw matchup ratings in the 60s and Dalton Schultz, the team’s main TE gets a 55. In contrast, Josh Downs’ and Isaiah McKenzie’s 44s are the highest ratings calculated for any Colts players.
In recent games, the Colts have allowed opposing WRs to score 111% of expected points. Nico Collins and Robert Woods will spend most of the game covered by Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. As a duo, the pair has allowed 16.5 points per game (PPG) on direct targets since Week 14 of 2022. Kenny Moore II, who has allowed 6.7 PPG on direct targets, will be on Collins and Woods at points in the game.
As a result, both WRs head into the contest with favorable matchups. Woods and Collins led the Texans in targets in Week 1, with 11 and 10 targets. Schultz saw just four targets and produced 2.4 PPR. This was his worst fantasy performance since Week 14 of 2021.
The GLSP also paints a favorable picture for Collins as 70% of his matches scored 10.0 or more points.
Michael Pittman found the end zone in Week 1 while drawing 11 targets. Given this volume, it’s possible that he could put together an acceptable fantasy outing despite a less-than-favorable matchup. Pittman will oppose a secondary that has allowed WRs to score just 73% of their PPG averages. In 2022, he put up 27.1 points against the defense in Week 1, followed by a 12.0 PPR game in Week 18.
Josh Downs ran 80% of routes from the slot in his first NFL game. In the stretch of 2022, Houston held opposing WRs to 0.2 points per target (PPT) less than the league average when lining up in the slot. Downs might find his way into lineups this season, but he isn’t quite there yet.
49ers at Rams
The Rams’ young WRs surprised in Week 1 and given favorable Week 2 matchups have runway to carry their momentum forward. Tutu Atwell’s matchup rating of 73 is the fifth highest of the Week and Van Jefferson’s 70 and Puka Nacua’s 69 are in the top 15. The three WRs will see mixtures of coverages from Ambry Thomas, Deommodore Lenoir, and Charvarius Ward.
Since Week 14 of 2022, Lenoir has allowed 10.5 PPG on direct targets which gives the trio an opportunity to capitalize against a defense that is allowing opposing WRs to score 115% of their PPG averages. That said, Thomas and Ward haven’t been as forgiving, ceding a combined 6.6 PPG on direct targets. This makes it a solid matchup for the trio but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect all three to have banner days.
Tyler Higbee’s outlook isn’t as favorable as his teammate’s given his matchup rating of 47, which could allow him to approximate his Week 2 GLSP of TE13.
Rams Week 1 Receiving Work Overview
| Player | RoutesRun | Targets | Air Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 35 | 5 | 54 |
| Puka Nacua | 34 | 15 | 142 |
| Tutu Atwell | 33 | 8 | 113 |
| Tyler Higbee | 28 | 3 | 33 |
| Kyren Williams | 26 | 2 | 22 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| Ben Skowronek | 5 | 2 | 19 |
Despite poor matchup ratings, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will look to recapture the success they saw against Los Angeles in 2022. In these games, the duo posted 3.0 PPT against the Rams with 2.8 recorded by Aiyuk and 3.4 by Samuel. Check out their combined output.
Kittle doesn’t match up favorably with the Rams as evidenced by his matchup rating of 29. Last season, Kittle averaged 2.2 PPT but managed just 1.9 PPT when facing the Rams. In two games against the team, he totaled 17.3 PPR. Kittle scored only 4.9 PPR in Week 1. Still, he earned 6 targets.
