We’ve had to white-knuckle through the end of training camp with injuries to skill position players, so it can be easy to take our eyes off the trenches. Though as I lay out in my annual summer series for RotoViz, there is a correlation worth exploring between starting offensive line continuity entering the season and the offensive production that ensues.
My most recent piece put Tennessee’s turnover in context, along with the best units among those bringing back their starting five. Here I’ll separate out instances where offensive line continuity is far more bullish or bearish than market perception of the line overall, and where these two factors hew pretty close. So for instance, later in this article we’ll quantify how continuity is bullish on Minnesota compared to the market.
Lines replacing a majority of starters
Since I tackled Derrick Henry’s unprecedented challenge already, let’s focus on the starting units with only two incumbents: the Cardinals, Bears, Texans, Rams, and Commanders.
I’ve detailed how the bottom offenses in total yards are mostly comprised of teams that on average replace most of their starting linemen year-over-year.
To compare market perception with various offensive line metrics — including my continuity totals — @deepvaluebettor of SportsfolioKings put together the kind of graphic you might dig.
the only 2023 NFL offensive line rankings you need
pff
madden 2024
4for4
33rd team
action
ftn
fantasypros
sharp fb
espn pbwr + rbwr (2022)s/o @ThomasEmerick 🤝 pic.twitter.com/WkXIOYQmDn
— deepvaluebettor (@deepvaluebettor) August 17, 2023
I’ve updated the continuity totals a bit for training camp developments since then, but that should serve as a good measure of market perception for us to see where continuity falls in line and deviates.
Let’s flag the key questions for each unit returning two starters entering Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, and see how this pairs with how well the line is viewed by the top offensive line rankers determining this market perception rating — so if they aligned completely, then these teams along with Tennessee would rank 27th through 32nd.
- Los Angeles Rams (No. 31): This offensive line is probably the great black box of the league as far as accurately predicting Week 1 lineup, which is usually not a positive indicator.
- Arizona (No. 30): If Paris Johnson Jr. can develop quickly at right tackle, it would be huge for stabilizing a line with three starters not on last season’s roster.
- Washington (No. 28): The unit fell off a cliff last year and longtime center Chase Roullier retired following injury. They added a couple serviceable vets and hope to get a contribution from their home-grown left guard battle.
- Chicago (No. 23): They’ll hope for chemistry between FA Nate Davis and rookie Darnell Wright out right, as Bears utility man Cody Whitehair fills in for injured LG Teven Jenkins.
- Houston (No. 21): Losing both your starting LG and C late in the preseason is not ideal. Adding Shaq Mason at right guard, however, is where you’re OK with the continuity hit.
