The Wrong Read has had many lives — first as a reflection on insights from the RotoViz podcasts; then as a free-form space for exploring a variety of metrics and strategies. It will likely continue in that latter function, but at least for now — in season — it’s an in-depth matchup lookahead article.

Each week I’ll gather advanced stats from our tools to paint a picture of the upcoming week and offer some thoughts on how the games might unfold. My interest is in how the games will impact fantasy teams, and as such I’m looking mainly at the metrics that I think can help us predict how different teams and players will (or won’t) score fantasy points.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

A stoppable force meets a movable object as the new-look Panthers travel to Atlanta. Both teams finished last season in the bottom four in passing expected points. Carolina hopes rookie quarterback Bryce Young can provide a much-needed spark, and the Falcons may be a matchup he can exploit. Only six teams allowed more passing FPOE, and only three teams allowed a higher rate of positive EPA passing plays. The Falcons were among the worst teams at generating pressure on passing plays, while the Panthers offensive line was better than average. Young should be able to stay upright, sustain some drives, and even perhaps find the end zone more than once.

Atlanta’s passing game will have more trouble, but they intend to rely on the running game anyway. Bijan Robinson figures to be the central piece of that attack. While we spent the entire 2022 season lamenting that the Falcons never ran the ball, the team generated positive EPA plays in the running game at the second highest rate, so one can hardly blame them for sticking with what worked. The Panthers have a middling run defense by the numbers, which makes no difference to Arthur Smith anyway.

That said, the Falcons offensive line ranked No. 2 in pass blocking points earned per snap, and the team ranked No. 7 in boom passing plays (plays that generate 1.0 EPA or more). They can throw the ball effectively. Still, we have little reason to think this is what they want to do. Atlanta dropped back to pass less frequently than any other team in 2022.

One reason the Falcons ranked dead last in dropbacks is not only that they played slowly and passed infrequently. It’s also that they allowed opposing offenses to move the ball effectively on the ground. No team allowed a higher rate of positive EPA rushing plays. The Panthers might instead focus on the ground game rather than throwing Young fully into the fire, and the Falcons might let them execute this game plan. Miles Sanders “will be the main guy” according to head coach Frank Reich. But don’t forget how similar Sanders and Chuba Hubbard were last year in the advanced stats.

Sanders’ only big edge was in his touchdown scoring, and moving from Philadelphia to Carolina probably removes most of that advantage.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

No surprise, the Bengals rank inside the top 10 in every significant passing metric. What is perhaps more surprising is that they also rank inside the top five in total FPOE allowed and positive pass play rate allowed. They score early and often and force teams to throw against them, and it usually doesn’t go that well for their opponents.

Where the Browns might be able to find an advantage is in the run game. Nick Chubb and Co. generated rushing plays that went for more than 1.0 EPA at a higher rate than any team, and only three teams were more efficient at turning opportunities into fantasy points. Chubb continues to be one of the best after-contact runners in the game. However, Cincinnati also ranked inside the top five in rushing FPOE allowed, and were No. 7 in both boom rushing play rate and yards after contact allowed. No rushing defense allowed a lower broken tackle rate. It’s far from a dream matchup for Chubb, but he’s a threat to break a tackle and turn it into a long gain against almost anyone. Nevertheless, if Cleveland falls behind early, they may be forced to abandon the run game.

The Browns’ pass defense is among the best at preventing positive EPA plays, but closer to the bottom of the league in generating pressure, while the Bengals’ offensive line ranks fifth in pressure rate allowed. Although Cleveland is beatable on the ground, this isn’t Cincinnati’s strength, so look for them to attack through the air, and to do so effectively. Ja’Marr Chase appeared in only 15 games and scored only 2.9 FPOE as he was not quite 100% healthy in the second half of the year. A rebound to his rookie year efficiency level (90 FPOE) could mean a big boost to Cincinnati’s already impressive passing attack.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars’ passing offense looks nearly Cincinnatean. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t quite match Joe Burrow’s passing efficiency, but Jacksonville was the No. 2 offense in passing points earned per play. The Colts’ below-average pass defense figures to give Lawrence little trouble moving the ball and putting up points.

Things look much different on the other side. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson will face the No. 5 defense at generating pressure while working behind an offensive line that ranked No. 27 at preventing pressure. Pressures are not entirely an offensive line stat — the QB has something to do with it. Case in point, the Colts’ offensive line wasn’t as bad in pass blocking points earned, ranking 16th. But mobile quarterbacks like Richardson — particularly rookies — do one important thing that makes pressures and sacks much more likely: they hold the ball a long time. This might not be the week to bet on Richardson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

The Buccaneers don’t have a lot going for them in the passing game, but they do come in with the No. 1 offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed and pass blocking points earned per snap. This is particularly important as Baker Mayfield makes his debut in the offense. The Vikings’ 26th-ranked pass rush won’t give him much trouble. Only five teams allowed more passing FPOE and only two teams allowed more receiving FPOE.

On the other hand, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker could struggle in a rushing attack that ranked at or near the bottom in most efficiency metrics. They face a Minnesota team that allowed just a 5.6% broken tackle rate — No. 5 in the league.

Of course, Tampa Bay’s rush defense is formidable as well — they were No. 5 in positive rush play rate and No. 2 in rushing points saved per snap (the flipside of points earned). Alexander Mattison was already among the least effective runners last year, and his fortunes are unlikely to turn around in Week 1.

Where Minnesota can exploit the Bucs is through the air. Only one team allowed more passing FPOE last season. Only three allowed more receiving FPOE. No team allowed more FPOE to tight ends. While Justin Jefferson is always a top play, T.J. Hockenson also becomes an intriguing DFS option.

Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Neither of these teams play a particularly uptempo game — both rank in the bottom five in total expected points. Yet both have the potential to put up points. The Saints No. 4 offensive line gives whoever their QB is ample time to complete passes. Last year they ranked No. 4 of on-target throw rate and No. 6 in catchable target rate despite also ranking No. 6 in average throw depth. That was with a combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton under center. Derek Carr might be an upgrade, though his actual completion percentage was worse than both passers last year.

He barely edged Winston in on-target pass rate despite an aDOT more than two yards shorter. In any event, he will be given every opportunity to succeed behind the Saints’ offensive line and with Chris Olave — who helped lead the team to a No. 4 rank in receiving FPOE — catching passes.

The Saints’ run blocking unit is almost as good (No. 9 in run blocking points earned) but last year they didn’t have the personnel to make the most of the opportunities. The additions of Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller could make a difference there. That said, the Titans’ run defense ranked No. 2 in the league in yards after contact allowed.

Tennessee is a team with a definite identity, but that struggled to play up to their own ideal last year. They managed a positive EPA play on only 39% of their rushing attempts and were mediocre in terms of rushing efficiency. The Saints do present a relatively easy matchup in that regard. Although they are above average at preventing the big play, they do enable teams to keep drives alive on the ground.

Where the Saints’ defense shines is against the passing attack. Only one team held opposing pass catchers to fewer FPOE, and no one was as good at preventing the big play. They do this mainly on the strength of their secondary. None of the Titans’ receivers get a favorable Week 1 matchup, according to the new and improved Passing Game Matchup Rater.

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

The 49ers are routinely one of the most efficient teams in the league under Kyle Shanahan. That was no different in 2022, as they led the league in boom pass play rate and ranked No. 2 in passing FPOE. What was unusual about 2022 is that the 49ers added Christian McCaffrey yet still finished as a middling running team. To be sure, McCaffrey’s forte is receiving, but he’s also been an efficient runner throughout his career.

The Steelers are much better at defending the run than the pass, which appears to play into San Francisco’s strengths as a team.

The 49ers are one of the toughest teams to run against. No team allowed fewer yards after contact per attempt or fewer big rushing plays per attempt. They also rank top five in rushing FPOE, positive rushing play rate, broken tackle rate allowed, and evasion rate allowed. I’m a noted Najee Harris skeptic, but even his biggest believers can’t be too excited about this matchup.

Instead, the task likely falls on Kenny Pickett and his receivers. San Francisco’s stingy pass defense is not much more forgiving than its run defense, but only two teams allowed more FPOE to opposing wide receivers last year. The Passing Game Matchup Rater also believes they are beatable by pass-catching TEs.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

The Cardinals come into this game without Kyler Murray and must face a Commanders defense that ranks No. 2 in pressure rate and boom passing play rate allowed, and No. 1 in positive passing play rate allowed. Although the Cardinals are among the best teams at preventing pressure, they are also among the least efficient passing teams. This is unlikely to go well.

The Commanders also defend the run well, but that’s unlikely to matter much, as Arizona presents a relatively easy matchup for Washington at multiple positions. No team allows a higher positive passing play rate, and only one team allows a higher boom rushing play rate. Sam Howell can easily keep drives alive while Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson should have opportunities to break off long runs. Of course, the Commanders’ main weakness is their offensive line — they rank just 28th in pressure rate allowed. If Arizona can regularly get to the QB, this could be a very low-scoring affair.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have completely revamped their defensive philosophy over the last year or two. Whereas they had previously been near the top of the league in pressure rate, they now rank near the bottom. This is good news for C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in pressure rate allowed. The bad news is that Baltimore still finds ways to stymie passers. They rank No. 3 in passing FPOE allowed and prevent big passing plays better than all but one NFL team. Even if Stroud has time in the pocket, he may still find it difficult to move the ball.

The Ravens meanwhile would presumably like nothing more than to keep running against one of the weakest run defenses in the league. Todd Monken’s arrival as offensive coordinator was supposed to signal a more uptempo passing attack, but with Mark Andrews unlikely to suit up and with the Ravens’ strengths aligning so well with the Texans’ weaknesses, we may see Baltimore keep the ball on the ground. Of course, the Texans have weaknesses everywhere, so predicting the Ravens’ path of least resistance is largely a toss-up.

Stay tuned for an update on the afternoon games.