Offensive line continuity is one slice of the giant onion in projecting the NFL. A quarterback can overcome a lot and it’s more important to fill gaping holes up front than it is to have continuity just for continuity’s sake. But all things equal, there’s an edge in having the dance line get in sync. This does especially come in handy with a weak-link system.
Offensive line continuity and offensive production: Better to return more than 3 up front on average
In writing this offensive line continuity series for RotoViz since the 2019 offseason and exploring it for the past decade or so, returning most of your offensive line starters year-over-year continues to correlate more with strong offensive production.
Let’s begin with the broader metric of total yards gained on the team level before diving into how OL continuity metrics shake out for 2023 with projected starters at the outset of the preseason. As you’ll see, 10 of the top 12 total offenses since 2018 return more than three starters on average, while that figure is halved with just five of the bottom 12 doing so.
Hat tip to Kyle Shanahan and Justin Herbert for helping their respective teams buck OL turnover and help their offenses remain productive. Over the course of this offseason series, we’ll red-flag low continuity teams while identifying ones that are well-suited to prove exceptions.
When it comes to low-continuity teams making it work despite growing pains, in 2021 I was bullish on the Chiefs and somewhat warm on the Chargers as the latter still did overshoot my expectations. Last offseason’s series comped the Bengals’ path to being an exception to that Chargers roadmap, while raising alarm on the Bucs.
