Take Shelter from the Wide Receiver Avalanche: Finding WR Value in FFPC Drafts
Image Credit: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: George Pickens.

RotoViz has long been synonymous with Zero RB. But never before this season has it been tougher to hit Shawn Siegele’s preferred benchmark: to draft six wide receivers with realistic top-15 upside. The WR rush in Underdog’s BBMIV contest is so pronounced that drafters are passing on three-down running backs to stay ahead of the avalanche. Just a few years ago Rachaad White would have been a third-round pick in many leagues. Now you can often get him in the eighth, after Brandin Cooks and Gabe Davis.

Trying to find the best ways to play formats like Underdog and FFPC are a fun puzzle for summer, and our tools like the Roster Construction Explorers, the Advance Rate Explorers, and the Win the Flex can help us find exploitable loopholes. Building a WR-heavy juggernaut is easier in the FFPC, which employs a 2-2-2 format (instead of Underdog’s 2-3-1). In Underdog that third WR is a necessary part of your starting lineup. In the FFPC, that receiver is helping you win the race to fill the flex. Here’s a look at the top 50 WRs by ADP at Underdog compared with FFPC drafts.

Jameson Williams (WR50 at FFPC) represents the last WR with truly elite upside in most drafts, and he’s not without red flags. That means at Underdog you need to have six WRs by the end of Round 7 to guarantee six high-ceiling WRs. But at the FFPC you can get the same players over two rounds later. By pushing the elite WR window out to Round 10, we can acquire those six elite-upside WRs, and still devote multiple early picks to elite players at other positions.

There are valuable WRs aplenty in the early rounds of FFPC drafts, but it’s the presence of potentially elite WRs in Round 7 and beyond that make  Zero RB and Anchor RB so viable. Let’s take a look at some of those specific players.

FFPC Wide Receiver Targets

Marquise Brown

  • Underdog ADP: 61.3 (Round 6)
  • FFPC ADP: 77.6 (Round 7)
  • ADP Delta: 16.3 picks

Meng Song made a great case back in April for Brown being a huge upside play in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. No WR in the first eight rounds has had a larger ADP rise in Underdog formats, as Brown flirts with Round 5.

He’s seen his price rise by only 7.9 picks in the FFPC over that same span, and is still available in the mid-seventh.

George Pickens

  • Underdog ADP: 73.8 (Round 7)
  • FFPC ADP: 84.2 (Round 8)
  • ADP Delta: 10.4 picks

Blair Andrews called Pickens his favorite pick in the sixth round of Underdog drafts. Since then he’s actually become a little bit cheaper in that format, as both teammate Diontae Johnson and the next player on this list have overtaken him. However, he’s still available nearly a full round later in FFPC drafts.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.