Although the sample sizes are still too tiny to be statistically significant, by the midway point of the season we’re able to cobble together enough data to make some useful predictions about the rest of the year. In that spirit, let’s take a look at a couple of charts that will help explain why streaming defenses is an optimal strategy in fantasy football.

The first chart shows the top five fantasy D/ST scorers (in points-per-game) of 2022. The second shows the teams who have yielded the most overall points to opposing D/STs. Several things here are worth noting. The highest point total of any single team from either graph is the Rams OPRK (oppositional rank). This means that even though the Cowboys are the highest-scoring D/ST of 2022, you would have scored more points by simply starting whoever was playing Matthew Stafford and company each week. The top five scorers in each category also favor the opponent rankings (399 total points vs 380). Even the average standard deviation of the top OPRK scores are lower (5.4 vs 6.6), meaning playing the best D/ST matchups is a more consistent/reliable option than starting the best D/ST each week.

Streaming the best matchups is even more valuable than these charts indicate, since even the best OPRK may not be worth playing against when you have to start the Detroit Lions’ D/ST to take advantage. Instead, you simply move on to the next best available matchup and avoid the valley weeks. In a vacuum, you could make a strong case that streaming D/STs based on weekly matchups is the optimal strategy even if you lucked out and hit on the Cowboys defense this year, but when you factor in the draft capital required to draft the top D/STs, it’s not even close. But why am I telling you this? You already took my advice, and that’s why you’re here. This week, many of the best D/ST options are low-rostered teams. Let’s take a look.