Justin Herrera uses the RotoViz tools to bring you the top plays and some under-the-radar options for the FanDuel main slate.
This weekly article is a deep dive into some guys that have exploitable matchups, something to prove, or are just great deals. The goal is always to help you win some money on a week-to-week basis. Barring that, at least you can have some fun playing DFS, in which case this article can help you get started on the road to profitability. Using RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer, I’ll go position by position and offer both a top play and a sleeper pick based on Week 4 matchups.
Quarterbacks
MUST-HAVE: JALEN HURTS – $8,600
Jalen Hurts is putting together a solid MVP campaign so far in 2022. Hurst has seven total touchdowns (four passing; three rushing) in 2022 and has found a way to finish in the top four each week. The Jaguars have been great against opposing QBs, picking off six passes and allowing 14 fantasy points to quarterbacks. This seems a little inflated due to the Colts’ blowout game and Justin Herbert’s offensive line losing its best player last week. In Week 1, Carson Wentz had 313 yards and four TDs, while not missing half his line or all his main receivers like Matt Ryan and Herbert were. So while this seems like a tough matchup on paper for Hurts, I would still put $8,600 down on him to finish in the top-five this week.
SLEEPER: GENO SMITH – $6,600
Geno Smith had his best performance in 2022 last week, passing for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Currently, Smith is top 10 in red-zone (60), pressured (50), play-action (88.5), and clean-pocket completion percentages (85). Smith protects the ball and throws it with great efficiency, with a 77% completion percentage (first in the NFL) and an 85% catchable throw rate (second in the NFL). This week he plays the Lions, who have scored the third most points (95) while allowing the second most fantasy points to the QB (23.6/game). The table below shows the last five quarterbacks to face the Lions; one thing you’ll notice is the Lions have only forced one interception during that span. The last five QBs they’ve faced have averaged 24.9 fantasy points/game, making Geno a solid cheap bet to outperform his value at $6,600.
Top QB Scorers vs. DET by Week, Last 5 Games
Player | Team | PaAtt | Comp | PaYd | Comp% | PaTD | Int | PPR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Ryan | ATL | 24 | 18 | 215 | 0.75 | 1 | 0 | 15.25 |
Russell Wilson | SEA | 29 | 20 | 236 | 0.69 | 4 | 0 | 30.2 |
Jalen Hurts | PHI | 32 | 18 | 243 | 0.56 | 0 | 0 | 27.15 |
Carson Wentz | WAS | 43 | 30 | 337 | 0.7 | 3 | 1 | 31.15 |
Kirk Cousins | MIN | 41 | 24 | 260 | 0.59 | 2 | 0 | 20.9 |
Average | 33.8 | 22 | 258.2 | 0.65 | 2 | 0.2 | 24.93 |