Happy draft season, RotoViz crew. Whether you’ve been hammering best ball drafts all summer, or are just starting to get back in the swing, the most fun part of the year is right around the corner. As we enter prime draft season, I thought I’d share a difficult keeper decision in my most important league (a home league filled with guys I’ve known my entire life), that details why choosing between hero and zero RB can be so challenging.
The Setup
After trading Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb for the keeper rights to Jonathon Taylor at the deadline last season, I now have the option to keep both Taylor and Justin Jefferson for only $31 of my $200 budget. The league is a 12-team, half-PPR, 2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1FLEX format. So, naturally, I’ve spent the entire off-season ecstatic about my chances in 2022.
The Turn
However, a few weeks ago, my buddy threw me for a loop by offering a trade of Stefon Diggs (who is my favorite player in the league) and draft day dollars for Taylor, which would allow me to start with Diggs and Jefferson for exactly $1. That has, understandably to the RotoViz faithful, created an incredibly difficult decision for me. Essentially, do I prefer the legendary upside of Taylor, or the added draft auction flexibility and structural advantage of the Diggs side? To answer that question, I’ve consulted my favorite tool.
Win the Flex – Projection
The Win The Flex tool illustrates this trade-off well. In the Projections section, Taylor generates a clear advantage over Diggs at the top of the draft. However, by banking Diggs at wide receiver, I increase my advantage at receiver and allow myself the ability to target running backs from picks 60-90, where their relative projection advantage is highest. It’s a close call, and the Projections section hasn’t solidified my decision.
