The 2022 Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB12) kicks off today! The scoring format is mainly unchanged from prior Fish Bowls, with the largest changes impacting the kicker and quarterback positions.

Matt Spencer ran several simulations and noted that only 42 points separate draft positions in average projected points, underscoring the balance in scoring for this format. Before I jump into the changes, here’s a quick primer for those of you who are new to the Scott Fish Bowl and the points-per-first-down (PP1D) format.

Refresher on Points Per First Down Scoring

For starters, it’s important to note that first downs are simply a function of raw volume. The more volume a player sees, the more likely they are to rack up first downs. Targets and touches are the lifeblood of fantasy scoring, and it should be no surprise that the skill players who lead all #SFB12 scorers also handle a significant chunk of their team’s volume. QB, WR, and TE are the “stickiest” positions, as established veteran players continuously finish in the top 36. Meanwhile, RB sees a bit more turnover and is the shallowest of the three positions.

A Historical Perspective On #SFB12 Scoring

Kickers here receive a slight boost, given that they receive an additional point for each field goal and extra point made. As you can see in the chart above (courtesy of Mike Beers), this makes them viable starters in a pinch.

Like last year, QBs accrue points for each completed pass (or lose points for each incompletion), in effect providing a bonus for QBs who complete at least two-thirds of their passes. I used the RotoViz Advanced Stats Explorer to find quarterbacks who achieved this threshold on a season-long basis.

Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins all missed the cut-off, but were among the top scorers last season. Under #SFB12 rules, Herbert finished with the third most points last season, with Mahomes finishing seventh and Cousins finishing thirteenth. Note that on a points-per-game basis, all three quarterbacks finished the season as top-10 scorers. I wouldn’t let the bonus scoring dictate your quarterback selection in the draft.

Strategy Notes

I converted our scoring projections into #SFB12 scoring.^[1]Although I ignored the completion percentage bonus for quarterbacks Those can be found at the end of the post. Note that projections are fragile and should serve to help guide your player selections as you go through the draft.

Running Back

The elite bell-cow RBs clock in as the best options for those not selecting quarterback with the first few picks. Much like PPR or half-PPR scoring formats, elite RBs who are able to stay fully healthy put up gaudy point-per-game numbers and end-of-season totals. Per our #SFB12 projections, five of the top-10 non-quarterback fantasy scorers are RBs. Our projections suggest that Jonathan Taylor is primed for yet another massive season. The gulf between Taylor and other top RB options is quite wide. The second-highest scoring RB, Derrick Henry, falls approximately 76 points short of Taylor. Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, and Saquon Barkley round out the top five.

So what do you do in the event that you can’t draft one of the elite RBs? Our projections suggest that players such as Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard, AJ Dillon, and Darrell Henderson should provide decent standalone value with the upside of taking over workhorse duties if the starter ahead of them goes down.

Alternatively, targeting RBs who are tasked with carrying the rock instead of catching passes is a good way to get usable RB points. Our projections indicate that RBs such as Devin Singletary, Ronald Jones, Elijah Mitchell, and Melvin Gordon are set to outperform their PPR projected finish under #SFB12 scoring rules. Meanwhile, pass-catching specialists such as J.D McKissic or Nyheim Hines could disappoint in the Fish Bowl.

Wide Receiver

Elite WRs may not carry the same raw scoring upside as their RB counterparts do, but they can offer a good way to get leverage on the rest of your league mates. Several WRs offer a weekly ceiling that is comparable to that of the elite RBs. Our projections peg Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Ja’Marr Chase as the cream of the crop.

Note that WR scoring trails off quite sharply relative to PPR scoring. Although you can potentially find viable production later in the draft, you don’t want to cap your upside if you miss rostering one of the few WRs who have a 20+ ppg season within their range of outcomes. If you’re able to roster two or three of the elite WRs coupled with a handful of breakout candidates, you should have a strong edge over the rest of your division at the WR position.

Tight End

Blair Andrews has previously written about the importance of securing an elite TE in this format, and what he’s written still holds true under #SFB12 scoring. Interestingly, the TE premium scoring also pushes up marginally good TEs.

It’s quite likely that later-round draft picks such as TJ Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, and Pat Freiermuth might provide solid floors and come at a nice discount to the TEs selected in the higher leverage rounds.

Kicker

I’d like to thank Matt Spencer for sharing some insight into how to play the kicker spot. Matt notes:

The average field goal made last season was 37.7 yards.  You can approximate the decimal kicker scoring by 3.77 times the project FGM. Upping this to an even 4.0 (5.0 total) projected points per FGM you will capture some of the upside at the top of the position with the top guys hitting 200 fantasy points.

Additionally, all the “optimal” starting lineups he simulated include one or two kickers. To get an idea of which kickers to draft, FFPC Superflex ADP can serve as our guide. High-stakes drafters appear to be comfortable selecting kickers such as Justin Tucker, Harrison Butker, Evan McPherson, Daniel Carlson, and Tyler Bass in the later rounds^[2]14th and 15th of superflex drafts.

If you’re facing a steep drop-off at the other skill players, I’d suggest grabbing a handful of kickers given the bonus scoring for extra points and field goals scored. Elite kickers average approximately 12.5 points per game in this format, which is in line with what players such as Michael Pittman and Amari Cooper scored last season. I’d expect kickers to go late in drafts, allowing you to continue to accrue players who offer solid floors as flex plays late in the draft.

Quarterback

The emphasis placed on completions seems to hinder the scoring upside for quarterbacks. QBs who we tend to think of as elite talents, i.e., Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray, should all fly off the board in the first two rounds as they appear to provide a safer floor than several other QBs. Additionally, mobile QBs benefit from the half point per first down they can pick up while rushing.

For example, Jalen Hurts rushed for an absurd 56 first downs and 10 touchdowns, and was seventh overall in rushing first-down production ahead of running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, and Austin Ekeler.

Although statuesque signal-callers don’t offer a similar ceiling as their elite mobile counterparts, they do offer reasonable upside. Last season, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins all averaged more points per game than Hurts and Jackson.

Ideally, you’d want to roster a signal-caller who’s completing a large percentage of their throws and avoiding sacks. Offenses that are able to stay on script during a game tend to minimize the risk of interceptions, so you want to target QBs on teams with lofty Vegas win totals as a way to minimize the risk of negative scoring.

When To Take Your QB

Using the Win The Flex app and FFPC Superflex ADP as a proxy for #SFB12 scoring, it should come as no surprise that drafters will be better off taking their QB1 early.

Although the tool suggests that there is positive equity^[3]difference between a player’s projected end-of-season rank and his overall ADP rank for QBs all the way up to pick 60, you’re opening yourself up to higher variance options. Last year, several late-round quarterbacks such as Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Carson Wentz had shaky floors and were highly matchup dependent. Relying on late-round quarterbacks to anchor your QB1 and Superflex spots was a dangerous game, as the reward wasn’t worth the risk of a dud performance.

Opportunity Cost and The QB Conundrum

Note that those aforementioned players are fine QB2 selections, but I wouldn’t be drafting them as my primary signal-caller. It is possible to structure your roster where you’re able to start a higher upside non-QB player in your superflex spot, but it’d require your draft to fall in a very specific order. Elite QBs tend to present a solid floor in addition to a high ceiling, so I find it easier to draft one elite QB early and then draft a higher upside option later in the draft.

Using the FFPC Dashboard as a proxy, we can see that early QB picks push a lot of attractive players down several rounds, meaning you can grab your QB early and still snag talented flex-eligible players in the early rounds. The opportunity cost of taking an early QB is thus not as great as you might expect.

If you’re drafting any of the later-round QBs as your QB1, you’ll have to bypass selecting players such as Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and Deebo Samuel. Additionally, you may have to pass on other appealing options such as Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Moore, and Cam Akers to select your QB2 without running the risk of getting shut out of the position entirely.

Can You Go Zero RB In #SFB12?

One of the early stud receivers,^[4]Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase the top TE available, and two high-upside quarterbacks would be an ideal start in the first few rounds. There’s some wiggle room in the selection process here, as I’d expect the high-upside quarterbacks to fly off the board slightly early, so make sure you’re adjusting to how your draft is unfolding. You can round out that construction by taking another TE and snagging a couple of stud WRs.^[5]assuming the high-end RBs are long gone

Early draft slots could consider taking an elite QB instead of drafting any of the early RB values that fall to them. Given that drafters are more interested in gravitating toward RBs in this format, Zero-RB drafters could potentially find value at all of the other skill positions. Only a handful of WRs finish near the 20 PPG game mark and filling your starting roster out with the few viable options would be one way to earn a massive edge on your opponents while also ensuring you have a unique roster come playoff time.

I’ve gone Zero RB every year since my first appearance in the Fish Bowl^[6]2017 and made the playoffs in 2017,^[7]I also finished as the 10th highest scorer in the regular season. 2018, 2020, and 2021.^[8]I was DOA in #SFB9. My QB1 was Cam Newton, and I lost several matchups by a handful of points. Although going Zero RB in this format leaves you with a low expected value, you can find potential starting RBs later in the draft or via waivers.^[9]I snagged Phillip Lindsay off waivers in 2018 for example. Unfortunately, James Conner was drafted in my league.

I have found that not having a reliable QB2 was more of a death blow than not having a reliable RB2, since I either flexed the wrong skill player^[10]I started Tre’Quan Smith over Derek Carr in 2018. Carr scored 30 points, whereas Smith scored 0. or played the wrong QB.^[11]I started Blaine Gabbert over Deshone Kizer in 2017. Kizer scored 28.3 points, whereas Gabbert scored 8.3 points. Even last season I was able to draft Rhamondre Stevenson and Sony Michel very late and found usable starts down the stretch from players such as Boston Scott.

Whatever strategy you choose to deploy come draft day, I wish you the best of luck! Don’t forget to donate to your favorite charities/causes!

Projections

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End