In what has been an absolutely wild offseason, the Dolphins kept the party going by trading a bevy of picks in return for Tyreek Hill. Shawn Siegele examined how the Chiefs’ offense might operate going forward, and I get to tackle the fun side with Hill.
For real life football, this is a questionable use of draft capital and salary by Miami. Hill is 28 years old, and it’s unlikely that the Dolphins will be serious Super Bowl contenders any time soon. However, optimal roster building in real life and fantasy football are different things, making it important to separate the two.
Hill had huge chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, receiving a 24% target share on a 12.5 aDOT (average depth of target) since 2018. Mahomes became the full-time starter that season and it led to some monster yardage numbers.
Market Share and Air Yards per Game, 2018-2020
| Player | Tgt | TD | Tgt Shr | AirYards | AY/Tgt | RACR | WOPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 8.9 | 0.3 | 24% | 111.7 | 12.6 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| Mike Evans | 7.9 | 0.7 | 20% | 111.6 | 14.2 | 0.69 | 0.51 |
| Tyreek Hill | 8.8 | 0.7 | 24% | 110.9 | 12.7 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| Davante Adams | 10.8 | 0.8 | 31% | 107.9 | 10 | 0.87 | 0.72 |
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 0.5 | 28% | 105.9 | 11.8 | 0.86 | 0.7 |
| Antonio Brown | 9.7 | 0.8 | 24% | 105.4 | 10.9 | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7.7 | 0.8 | 24% | 99.8 | 13 | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| Stefon Diggs | 9 | 0.5 | 27% | 98.9 | 11 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.4 | 0.6 | 29% | 98.2 | 10.5 | 0.84 | 0.68 |
| Odell Beckham | 7.9 | 0.4 | 24% | 98.2 | 12.5 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7.8 | 0.6 | 20% | 97 | 12.5 | 0.7 | 0.51 |
| Terry McLaurin | 7.8 | 0.4 | 24% | 94.4 | 12.1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| Kenny Golladay | 6.9 | 0.4 | 20% | 94.3 | 13.7 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| DK Metcalf | 7.2 | 0.6 | 24% | 93.2 | 12.9 | 0.7 | 0.58 |
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 0.5 | 20% | 90.6 | 12.9 | 0.61 | 0.51 |
Make no bones about it, Hill’s combination of elite air yardage (110.9 per game), the ability to convert those yards to actual yards (74% RACR), and a phenomenal 0.7 touchdowns per game will be supremely difficult to replicate in Miami. On the other hand, targets are earned and Hill has a special ability for making huge plays in any situation.
Fantasy Drafters May End Up Giving You an Edge
Conor O’Driscoll won the 2021 FFPC Best Ball Tournament. Want to be the next $100,000 winner? Check out how he’s playing the Miami offense in the aftermath of the Hill acquisition.
