NFL Playoff Best Ball: Dubner’s Rankings Model and ADP Inefficiencies

Michael Dubner
January 4, 2022

With the fantasy football regular season coming to an end, it is time to ~~rest~~ turn our attention to the playoffs. Underdog and Drafters launched NFL Playoff Best Ball tournaments, so it’s time to put your regular season winnings to use. Michael Dubner provides a Playoff Best Ball Rankings Model.

How to Win Playoff Best Ball Tournaments: Projections vs Game Theory

Just like in DFS, in best ball we don’t need the highest possible score; rather we need the highest score compared to our opponents. There are two primary factors that lead to a first-place finish in a best ball tournament: Fantasy Scoring and Game Theory. Because teams are eliminated each week, players do not play the same number of games. The most important thing to keep in mind during Playoff Best Ball roster construction is to correlate teammates so you have the best chance of having multiple players scoring points in the Super Bowl.

Correlation vs ADP: Even if we assume ADP perfectly reflects projections (which they don’t, see below model), it is far more important to optimize correlation in order to field a Super Bowl roster.

With that being said, projections still matter and can help guide our rankings and identify ADP inefficiencies. It is especially valuable if we can identify teammates with ADP inefficiencies that we can then stack.

Projection Methodology

*Below I will detail my Rankings Model methodology. Feel free to skip to the end for the results.

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Michael Dubner

RotoViz Featured Writer. Emphasis on NFL DFS and Best Ball.

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