Quarterback Changes Bring Uncertainty That We Can Embrace: How to Use Expected Points and GLSP in DFS

Blair Andrews
November 7, 2021

Blair Andrews uses expected points and the Weekly GLSP app to find the best possible plays for DraftKings single-entry tournaments.

Single-entry GPPs are the purest form of daily fantasy sports. If you aren’t playing in single-entry GPPs, you can never really know your true DFS skill level. Yes, it takes skill to construct a winning cash lineup. And it takes skill to construct an entire portfolio of lineups for mass-multi-entry GPPs. But in single-entry tournaments, you only get one shot, and it has to be your absolute best shot.

Your best lineup will include not only players who are likely to outscore their salary-implied total (the best values), and not only players who have 30 DraftKings points in their range of outcomes (the highest ceilings). You need to find the best values and the highest ceilings that are simultaneously least likely to be found by your opponents. What this requires is not simply better projections, but rather different inputs altogether. With that in mind, let’s look at a couple different ways to find top DFS plays.

Using Expected Points in DFS

We know that one of the best indicators of future fantasy scoring is past expected points. Expected points are the best way translate opportunity into potential fantasy output. Opportunity is sticky from one week to the next. Efficiency isn’t. So if we know how much a player’s opportunity is worth, we will have a much better idea of how many fantasy points they should be expected to score.

It turns out that an even more predictive indicator of future fantasy scoring is a player’s share of his team’s total expected points. This is because team expected points are highly variable, and depend on both matchup and game script. But team’s tend to use their personnel in fairly predictable ways.

This week I’m presenting slightly different numbers. With many players injured or out for other reasons, and many others potentially returning from injuries, per-game numbers may be more useful than raw totals. The percentages you see indicate a player’s share of his team’s per-game EP. Although the numbers below aren’t the most accurate reflection of what a player has done over the course of the season, they will give us a better picture of how teams would prefer to deploy their personnel if everyone were healthy. The table below displays the leaders in market share of (non-QB) expected points.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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