DFS is primarily a numbers game based on three levers: 1) Player Projections, 2) Percent Rostered, and 3) Roster Construction. Depending on your contest selection (cash, small-field GPP, large-field GPP), you will need to pull these three levers to different degrees. In GPPs, we focus on ceiling projection, roster percentage, and correlation.

In GPP tournaments, we don’t need the highest possible score. Rather, we just need the highest score compared to our opponents. This is where leverage comes into play. The question I ask myself to gain leverage on the field is: “How can I exploit how the rest of the field is going to construct rosters?” I am not telling you to fade all of the chalk. But I am saying that if you do fade chalk, then you can gain leverage by constructing a roster based on the scenarios where the chalk fails. Does another player on the same team score? Does the entire offense fail? Does the opponent run up the score?

I primarily play small-field GPPs (100-1000 entries) on FanDuel, so will mostly discuss leverage in this context. A key point about small-field GPPs is that the best plays are often rostered on an even higher percentage of teams than they would be in large fields. The chalk gets even chalkier, making it (oftentimes) easier to access leverage.

Note: I am publishing this article before weekend news and roster percentage projection changes.

NFL DFS Week 9 Top Leverage Situations

1. Fade Chiefs DST

The Chiefs DST love is warranted in Week 9, as they are touchdown favorites against a Packers team with a team total of just 20.25 where there should be plenty of opportunity for sacks and turnovers against Jordan Love. Chiefs DST will have a strong median projection at the fourth cheapest salary.

I have a simple rule: Never play a 20%-plus rostered DST in GPPs. The Chiefs DST ($3,300) might push 30% here.

DST is the most volatile position with the lowest correlation between DFS ownership and fantasy production. A DST can have a good reality performance, but if they don’t convert pressure and tight coverage into turnovers and (more importantly) fluky defensive touchdowns, then they aren’t going to separate from the pack.

Interestingly, if you run the RotoViz DFS Lineup Optimizer with no constraints, the DST on the opposite side of this game shows up a lot.

2. Fade the Assumption of Role Increase

There are several players that will likely have an expanded role with teammates missing time. In these situations, I like to do the opposite of what the field does in terms of ownership. Increased playing time does not always translate into earning more volume. Even if these players do see an uptick in volume, they are better plays on volume-based DraftKings, while we really only need to fade touchdowns on TD-heavy FanDuel.