DFS is primarily a numbers game based on three levers: 1) Player Projections, 2) Percent Rostered, and 3) Roster Construction. Depending on your contest selection (cash, small-field GPP, large-field GPP), you will need to pull these three levers to different degrees. In GPPs, we focus on ceiling projection, roster percentage, and correlation.
In GPP tournaments, we don’t need the highest possible score. Rather, we just need the highest score compared to our opponents. This is where leverage comes into play. The question I ask myself to gain leverage on the field is: “How can I exploit how the rest of the field is going to construct rosters?” I am not telling you to fade all of the chalk. But I am saying that if you do fade chalk, then you can gain leverage by constructing a roster based on the scenarios where the chalk fails. Does another player on the same team score? Does the entire offense fail? Does the opponent run up the score?
I primarily play small-field GPPs (100-1000 entries) on FanDuel, so will mostly discuss leverage in this context. A key point about small-field GPPs is that the best plays are often rostered on an even higher percentage of teams than they would be in large fields. The chalk gets even chalkier, making it (oftentimes) easier to access leverage.
Note: I am publishing this article before weekend news and roster percentage projection changes.
My Week 7 Bink
DFS isn’t about scoring the most points possible, it’s just about scoring the most points compared to your opponent. That is why understanding leverage and roster percentages is so important. Writing this weekly leverage article simplifies my DFS process, and I want to share a successful Week 7 GPP small-field tournament win with you to show how I think about leverage when building real rosters.
Contest Type: FanDuel $2K NFL Small Sweep (Single Entry), $25 buy-in, 94 entries. Not the most glamorous first-place prize, but it’s still a good bankroll building contest.
My 174 points completely blew the rest of the field away, and was the highest winning score I saw across any of the other similarly sized contests I played. You don’t need everyone on your roster to smash if your contest selection is smart.
The process:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Double-Stack: I specifically highlighted “Rinse and Repeat Tampa Bay Bucs stacks. Every. Single. Week.” in last week’s article. After Antonio Brown was ruled out, Chris Godwin was going to be chalk. On the one hand, I loved Mike Evans as a leverage play off Godwin, but I decided to just roll with the premium double-stack, thinking Tom Brady would throw for four-plus touchdowns and they would be concentrated to the alphas. The double-stack was also leverage off 30% rostered Leonard Fournette.
- No Bring-Back: I thought Darnell Mooney was an okay bring-back, and did have a lineup in another similar contest with Mooney. But I also know the Buccaneers are willing to keep their foot on the gas, regardless of their opponent, so was fine without having the bring-back correlation in order to play some better projected players.
- The Bucs are a team that don’t need to be pushed to score points. On the other hand, I will almost always use a bring-back in Cowboys stacks, who really need their opponents to force them to score.
- Cooper Kupp leverage on Darrell Henderson: I knew Henderson (34%) was going to be one of the most frequently rostered plays on the slate. I also thought the Rams were extremely likely to score four-plus touchdowns. In lineups without Henderson, I wanted to get a Rams pass-catcher in the lineup as leverage. While I expected Cooper Kupp to be heavily utilized by the field, I was less concerned with the raw ownership number here since I knew he was going to come in around half the ownership of teammate Henderson. Kupp also arguably had the third-highest ceiling on the slate, only behind Derrick Henry (who was prohibitively expensive at $11,000) and Henderson. Kupp ended up breaking the slate.
- Two mini correlations:
- Myles Gaskin – Calvin Ridley: When DeVante Parker was ruled out, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki became awesome plays. Gaskin wasn’t a great play last week, but he became one after the leverage opportunity opened up. Also while Gaskin’s touches have been a roller-coaster this season, I thought he could see his targets spike in a potential pass-heavy game script. Calvin Ridley was too cheap for a touchdown threat that should see 10 targets. He was good chalk.
- Josh Jacobs – Dallas Goedert: Through the weekend, Miles Sanders’ percent rostered projections started to get steamed up, so I looked to Goedert as leverage. I actually thought Goedert was going to come in closer to 15% rostered while Gesicki would be closer to 25%, but unfortunately it was flipped. I highlighted Josh Jacobs as a fade last week, but that was pre-Darren Waller injury. I thought Waller had a good chance of being ruled out after 1pm lock, and not enough people would play Jacobs who would then project to be a great points per dollar play. It helped that Jacobs (13%) was rostered on far-fewer rosters than I expected even compared to pre-Waller news. Jacobs could have had a monster day if he didn’t get hurt.
Even in hindsight, I love the process behind this roster. My only regret was not entering a similar roster into another contest that used Kyle Pitts instead of Ridley, and then getting off Goedert for a different $7K receiver.
Do The Opposite: NFL DFS Week 8 Leverage Situations
1. Tee Higgins Slate-Breaking Game Incoming
Tee Higgins was one of my highest exposure players in best ball this year, and my bold prediction to be a WR1. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Ja’Marr Chase stan as well, but I’m also a Tee truther. Higgins is an obvious buy-low candidate. Really, I’m just all in on the Bengals’ passing attack. After getting off to a slow start and easing in Joe Burrow, the Bengals have taken the reins off Burrow and are letting him sling it.
#Bengals started the year taking it easy on Burrow and doing some things that were boring but efficient (and I was worried).
Now they're adding some excitement to that efficiency as confidence in Burrow's health grows. Definitely encouraging. pic.twitter.com/ifkpyNBnaT
— Michael Leone (@2Hats1Mike) October 26, 2021
Higgins was really inefficient in Week 7, but is dripping with upside after being fed 15 targets, and is priced at just $6,300.
2. Robert Woods Is Boring, But Is The Leverage That We Need
Double-digit favorites with an implied team total of 30 points versus the Texans, Darrell Henderson ($7,700) is (yet again) the best RB on the slate. Even at $9,200, Cooper Kupp has earned the right to being rostered on at minimum 15% of lineups every week from here on out. With the main slate missing Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews, it seems like Tyler Higbee ($5,300) may find his way into double-digit ownership. Robert Woods ($6,800) currently projects for single-digit utilization, and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to pop off for one of his 20-point games against this JV team.
