It’s Only a Matter of Time Before Stefon Diggs Explodes — Why Not This Week? How to Use Expected Points and GLSP in DFS – Week 4

Blair Andrews
October 3, 2021

Blair Andrews uses expected points and the Weekly GLSP app to find the best possible plays for DraftKings single-entry tournaments.

Single-entry GPPs are the purest form of daily fantasy sports. If you aren’t playing in single-entry GPPs, you can never really know your true DFS skill level. Yes, it takes skill to construct a winning cash lineup. And it takes skill to construct an entire portfolio of lineups for mass-multi-entry GPPs. But in single-entry tournaments, you only get one shot, and it has to be your absolute best shot.

Your best lineup will include not only players who are likely to outscore their salary-implied total (the best values), and not only players who have 30 DraftKings points in their range of outcomes (the highest ceilings). You need to find the best values and the highest ceilings that are simultaneously least likely to be found by your opponents. What this requires is not simply better projections, but rather different inputs altogether. With that in mind, let’s look at a couple different ways to find the top DFS plays.

Using Expected Points in DFS

We know that one of the best indicators of future fantasy scoring is past expected points. Expected points are the best way to translate opportunity into potential fantasy output. Opportunity is sticky from one week to the next. Efficiency isn’t. If we know how much a player’s opportunity is worth, we will have a much better idea of how many fantasy points they should be expected to score.

It turns out that an even more predictive indicator of future fantasy scoring is a player’s share of his team’s total expected points. This is because team expected points are highly variable, and depend on both matchup and game script. But teams tend to use their personnel in fairly predictable ways. With that in mind, the table below displays the leaders in market share of (non-QB) expected points.

Player	Team	Pos	EP	FPOE	ruEP	ruFPOE	reEP	reFPOE	msEP	msRuEP	msReEP
Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	53.4	-7.5	30.1	-12.4	23.3	4.9	36.8%	77.2%	22.0%
Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	67.2	10.6	49.1	3.8	18.2	4.3	30.9%	92.3%	11.1%
Davante Adams	GB	WR	61.3	0.6	0	0	61.3	0.6	30.7%	0.0%	38.0%
Cooper Kupp	LAR	WR	60.1	25.1	0.2	-0.7	59.9	29.1	29.8%	0.5%	37.5%
Najee Harris	PIT	RB	63.7	-16.5	23.1	-10.8	40.6	1.3	26.6%	81.3%	19.2%
Brandin Cooks	HOU	WR	56.1	5.6	0.7	-0.2	55.4	5.8	26.6%	1.4%	34.6%
Deebo Samuel	SF	WR	52.6	7.6	2.7	-1.9	49.9	9.5	26.0%	6.3%	31.2%
DK Metcalf	SEA	WR	40.8	9.2	0	0	40.8	9.2	25.5%	0.0%	31.6%
D'Andre Swift	DET	RB	59.9	0	22.6	-4.3	37.4	4.2	24.8%	53.7%	18.8%
David Montgomery	CHI	RB	40.1	-2.9	24.2	2.1	15.9	-4	24.8%	84.9%	11.9%
Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	58.1	0.3	32.9	-6.8	25.1	9.2	24.4%	62.8%	13.5%
Mike Davis	ATL	RB	55.4	-20.9	23.9	-10.2	31.6	-9.8	24.0%	64.1%	16.3%
Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB	53.5	-21.4	38.4	-21.3	15.1	-0.1	23.8%	76.5%	8.7%
Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	43	5.1	0	0	43	6.1	23.3%	0.0%	28.1%
Marquise Brown	BAL	WR	36.8	16.2	0.2	0.3	36.6	13.9	23.3%	0.6%	29.0%
Aaron Jones	GB	RB	46.4	16.9	26.8	1	19.6	16.9	23.2%	70.0%	12.2%
Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	46.9	7.8	1.5	1.5	45.5	6.2	23.0%	4.7%	26.4%
Sammy Watkins	BAL	WR	36.3	-3.5	0	0	36.3	2.5	23.0%	0.0%	28.8%
Stefon Diggs	BUF	WR	57.5	-13.4	0	0	57.5	-11.4	22.9%	0.0%	27.0%
Travis Kelce	KC	TE	45.7	21.2	0	0	45.7	22.2	22.4%	0.0%	26.5%
Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	53.3	4.6	0	0	52	5.4	22.1%	0.0%	26.4%
DJ Moore	CAR	WR	52.4	5.4	1.2	0.1	51.2	6.3	22.0%	2.3%	27.6%
Michael Pittman Jr	IND	WR	48.9	-9.4	0.6	-0.1	48.3	-8.3	21.8%	1.2%	27.7%
Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	52.4	4.7	0	0	52.4	11.7	21.7%	0.0%	26.6%
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	52.1	-0.4	3.7	-2.6	48.4	3.1	21.6%	7.3%	25.5%
Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	34.3	-9.7	0	0	34.3	-9.7	21.2%	0.0%	25.7%
Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	48.8	-5.3	0	0	48.8	-5.3	21.2%	0.0%	25.2%
Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	33.6	31.3	0	0	33.6	29.7	21.0%	0.0%	26.0%
Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	36.5	12.8	30.8	13.4	5.6	0.5	21.0%	60.2%	4.6%
Antonio Gibson	WAS	RB	38.5	2.1	22.6	-3.5	15.8	5.7	20.9%	72.2%	10.3%
DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	39	-10.5	0	0	39	-3.5	20.8%	0.0%	24.1%
Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	43.5	-9.5	22.9	-3.5	20.7	-5.1	20.6%	78.2%	11.4%
Chris Carson	SEA	RB	32.8	7.2	24.7	13.5	8.2	0.6	20.5%	80.2%	6.4%
Chase Edmonds	ARI	RB	42.2	-0.6	17.2	-3.7	25	3.1	20.4%	41.1%	15.1%
Cole Beasley	BUF	WR	50.5	-8.1	0	0	50.5	-8.1	20.1%	0.0%	23.7%
Darnell Mooney	CHI	WR	32.4	-10.3	0	0	32.4	-10.3	20.0%	0.0%	24.3%
Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	41.9	3.5	0.6	-1.5	41.3	6	19.9%	2.0%	22.7%
Jaylen Waddle	MIA	WR	43.7	1	0	0	43.7	1	19.8%	0.0%	23.0%
Corey Davis	NYJ	WR	37.1	1.5	0	0	37.1	1.5	19.1%	0.0%	22.7%
Chase Claypool	PIT	WR	45.7	-7.4	1.2	1	44.6	-8.5	19.1%	4.2%	21.1%
Kenny Golladay	NYG	WR	39.8	-12.2	0	0	39.8	-12.2	18.9%	0.0%	21.9%
Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	45.3	4.6	0	0	45.3	4.6	18.8%	0.0%	23.9%
Mark Ingram	HOU	RB	39.7	-17.2	34.8	-14.1	4.8	-3	18.8%	68.2%	3.0%
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	44.3	4.5	30.6	7.3	13.7	-1.2	18.4%	60.1%	7.2%
Kareem Hunt	CLE	RB	31.8	18.9	17.1	11.4	14.7	5.5	18.3%	33.4%	12.0%
Braxton Berrios	NYJ	WR	34.1	-5.1	0	0	34.1	-5.1	17.5%	0.0%	20.8%
Miles Sanders	PHI	RB	32.8	-0.1	17.8	-2.2	14.9	0.2	17.5%	68.7%	9.2%
Melvin Gordon	DEN	RB	37.2	1.7	28.5	2.8	8.7	4.9	17.2%	49.6%	5.5%
Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	27.1	4.5	0	0	27.1	5.5	17.2%	0.0%	21.5%
DeVante Parker	MIA	WR	37.8	-8.3	0	0	37.8	-7.3	17.1%	0.0%	19.9%
Ty'son Williams	BAL	RB	26.8	5.1	15.3	13.1	11.4	-0.9	17.0%	48.1%	9.0%
Robert Woods	LAR	WR	33.8	-8.6	1.5	0.3	32.3	-2.9	16.8%	3.6%	20.2%
Javonte Williams	DEN	RB	36.2	-7.5	27.8	-8	8.4	0.5	16.7%	48.3%	5.3%
Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	40	-5.9	0	0	40	-5.9	16.7%	0.0%	18.9%
Myles Gaskin	MIA	RB	35.6	-4	13.9	0	21.6	-3.9	16.1%	44.6%	11.4%
Jamaal Williams	DET	RB	38.7	7.6	18.6	-0.6	20.1	2.2	16.0%	44.2%	10.1%
TJ Hockenson	DET	TE	38.2	11.1	0	0	38.2	16.1	15.8%	0.0%	19.2%
Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	34.2	1.8	0	0	34.2	1.8	15.8%	0.0%	21.5%
Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	RB	36.3	12.5	13.4	1.1	22.9	17.4	15.7%	35.9%	11.8%
Darrell Henderson Jr	LAR	RB	31.5	1.4	22.8	1.5	8.7	-0.1	15.6%	54.3%	5.5%
Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	WR	38.6	3.8	0	0	38.6	3.8	15.4%	0.0%	18.1%
Elijah Moore	NYJ	WR	29.9	-15.3	0	0	29.9	-13.3	15.4%	0.0%	18.3%
Zach Pascal	IND	WR	34.5	7.2	0	0	34.5	7.2	15.4%	0.0%	19.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	RB	31.2	2.5	21.6	-2.7	9.7	5.1	15.3%	68.1%	5.6%
Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	36.8	2.4	23	2.2	13.8	0.2	15.3%	53.6%	7.0%
Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	33.7	-8	0	0	33.7	-7	15.3%	0.0%	17.8%
DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	WR	31.2	15.6	0	0	31.2	16.6	15.1%	0.0%	18.9%
AJ Green	ARI	WR	30.9	3.2	0	0	30.9	3.2	14.9%	0.0%	18.7%
Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	RB	27.6	-1.7	8.1	3.2	19.4	-4.8	14.7%	31.3%	12.0%
Devin Singletary	BUF	RB	36.2	-4.5	20.1	3.9	16.1	-8.4	14.4%	52.6%	7.6%
Jalen Reagor	PHI	WR	27	2.7	0	0	27	2.7	14.4%	0.0%	16.7%
Dan Arnold	CAR	TE	34.2	-34.2	0	0	34.2	-3.4	14.4%	0.0%	18.4%
Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	29.5	21.4	0	0	29.5	21.4	14.3%	0.0%	17.9%
Rondale Moore	ARI	WR	29.1	8.5	3.6	-3.3	25.6	17.7	14.1%	8.6%	15.5%
Adam Humphries	WAS	WR	25.9	-9.8	0	0	25.9	-8.8	14.0%	0.0%	16.9%
George Kittle	SF	TE	28.3	6.3	0.8	0.1	27.5	6.2	14.0%	1.9%	17.2%
Julio Jones	TEN	WR	30.2	2.2	0	0	30.2	2.2	13.9%	0.0%	18.4%
AJ Brown	TEN	WR	30.1	-7.6	0.8	-0.5	29.3	-7.1	13.9%	1.5%	17.9%
Noah Fant	DEN	TE	29.9	-0.9	0	0	29.9	-0.9	13.8%	0.0%	18.8%
Logan Thomas	WAS	TE	25.4	10.3	0	0	25.4	10.3	13.8%	0.0%	16.6%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	32.7	-1.6	3.2	3.1	29.5	-4.7	13.6%	11.3%	13.9%
Nyheim Hines	IND	RB	30.1	5.2	8	4.4	22.1	0.8	13.4%	15.9%	12.7%
Kyle Pitts	ATL	TE	30.3	-5.4	0	0	30.3	-4.4	13.1%	0.0%	15.7%
Alexander Mattison	MIN	RB	31.2	-2.7	16.9	-4.4	14.2	1.8	12.9%	39.4%	7.2%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	WR	25.5	-5.9	0	0	25.5	-5.9	12.8%	0.0%	15.8%
Mecole Hardman	KC	WR	26	1.9	1.2	-1	24.9	2.8	12.8%	3.8%	14.5%
Dyami Brown	WAS	WR	22.5	-15.7	0.1	-0.5	22.4	-14.2	12.2%	0.3%	14.6%
Michael Carter	NYJ	RB	23.4	-4.7	13	-4.1	10.3	-0.5	12.0%	42.2%	6.3%
Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	22.3	0	0	0	22.3	0	11.9%	0.0%	13.8%
Chester Rogers	TEN	WR	24.9	-2.9	0	0	24.9	-2.9	11.5%	0.0%	15.2%
Tyler Conklin	MIN	TE	27.6	4	0	0	27.6	5	11.5%	0.0%	14.0%
Marquez Callaway	NO	WR	16.6	-3.3	0	0	16.6	2.7	11.4%	0.0%	15.7%
Tim Patrick	DEN	WR	24.5	16.9	0	0	24.5	16.9	11.3%	0.0%	15.4%
Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	22.7	5.9	0	0	22.7	5.9	11.3%	0.0%	14.2%
Sony Michel	LAR	RB	22.6	-6.9	17.1	-5.6	5.5	-1.3	11.2%	40.7%	3.4%
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	WR	22.7	-6.6	1.2	-0.4	21.5	-6.2	11.2%	2.8%	13.5%
KJ Osborn	MIN	WR	26.9	12.4	0	0	26.9	12.4	11.2%	0.0%	13.7%
Darius Slayton	NYG	WR	23.3	2.4	0	0	23.3	2.4	11.1%	0.0%	12.8%
Quintez Cephus	DET	WR	26.3	4	0	0	26.3	2	10.9%	0.0%	13.2%
Tony Jones Jr	NO	RB	15.8	-4.6	8.1	-1.2	7.8	-3.5	10.9%	20.8%	7.4%
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	RB	25.9	-11.6	10.6	-4.4	15.3	-7.2	10.9%	20.2%	8.2%
James Conner	ARI	RB	22.4	3.8	21.1	3.1	1.3	0.7	10.8%	50.4%	0.8%
Dalton Schultz	DAL	TE	25.9	14.4	0	0	25.9	14.4	10.8%	0.0%	13.6%
Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	20.1	7.1	0	0	20.1	8.1	10.7%	0.0%	12.4%
Kalif Raymond	DET	WR	25.7	-0.2	0.9	0	24.8	-0.2	10.7%	2.1%	12.4%
Jack Doyle	IND	TE	23.7	-3.2	0	0	23.7	-5.2	10.5%	0.0%	13.6%
Terrace Marshall Jr	CAR	WR	24.9	-5.8	0	0	24.9	-5.8	10.5%	0.0%	13.4%
Tony Pollard	DAL	RB	24.9	13.9	13.8	10.5	11.1	3.4	10.3%	27.1%	5.8%
Juwan Johnson	NO	TE	15	5.4	0	0	15	5.4	10.3%	0.0%	14.2%
Ty Johnson	NYJ	RB	20	-8.1	11.6	-3.4	8.4	-4.7	10.3%	37.7%	5.1%
Austin Hooper	CLE	TE	17.5	7.1	0	0	17.5	7.1	10.1%	0.0%	14.3%
Elijah Mitchell	SF	RB	20.3	-2.6	17.3	3.3	3	0.1	10.0%	40.4%	1.9%
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	16.2	-3.9	0	0	16.2	-1.9	10.0%	0.0%	12.1%
JD McKissic	WAS	RB	18.4	8.5	5.8	4.3	12.6	4.2	10.0%	18.5%	8.2%
Gerald Everett	SEA	TE	15.9	-0.2	0	0	15.9	6.8	10.0%	0.0%	12.3%
Zack Moss	BUF	RB	24.7	10.8	15	5.6	9.6	5.3	9.8%	39.3%	4.5%
Odell Beckham	CLE	WR	16.5	-2.8	1	0	15.5	-2.8	9.5%	2.0%	12.7%
Marquise Goodwin	CHI	WR	15	-4.7	0.7	-0.9	14.4	-3.9	9.3%	2.5%	10.8%
Damien Williams	CHI	RB	14.6	-4.2	3.6	-1.8	11	-2.4	9.0%	12.6%	8.2%
Robert Tonyan	GB	TE	18	0.6	0	0	18	0.6	9.0%	0.0%	11.2%
Latavius Murray	BAL	RB	14.2	7	14.2	7	0	0	9.0%	44.7%	0.0%
Van Jefferson	LAR	WR	18.1	8.5	0	0	18.1	8.5	9.0%	0.0%	11.3%
Mohamed Sanu	SF	WR	18.1	-9.8	0	0	18.1	-9.8	8.9%	0.0%	11.3%
David Njoku	CLE	TE	15.4	-1	0	0	15.4	-1	8.9%	0.0%	12.6%
Ryan Griffin	NYJ	TE	17.2	-7.5	0	0	17.2	-6.5	8.8%	0.0%	10.5%
Trinity Benson	DET	WR	21.1	-12.8	0	0	21.1	-12.8	8.7%	0.0%	10.6%
Freddie Swain	SEA	WR	13.8	10.8	1.6	0.5	12.1	10.4	8.6%	5.2%	9.4%
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	TE	20.4	1.8	0	0	20.4	2.8	8.5%	0.0%	9.6%
Albert Okwuegbunam	DEN	TE	18.4	0.2	0	0	18.4	0.2	8.5%	0.0%	11.6%
Adam Trautman	NO	TE	12.1	-7.3	0	0	12.1	-7.3	8.3%	0.0%	11.4%
Dawson Knox	BUF	TE	20.9	11.8	0	0	20.9	11.8	8.3%	0.0%	9.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	WR	18.8	-2.4	0	0	18.8	-2.4	8.2%	0.0%	9.7%
Deonte Harris	NO	WR	11.8	11.5	0.8	-0.7	10.9	12.3	8.1%	2.1%	10.3%
David Johnson	HOU	RB	17	2.6	5	-0.4	12.2	2.8	8.0%	9.8%	7.6%
Phillip Lindsay	HOU	RB	16.8	1.6	10.5	-1.3	6.3	2.9	8.0%	20.6%	3.9%
Tyler Kroft	NYJ	TE	15.3	-4.7	0	0	15.3	-4.7	7.9%	0.0%	9.3%
Jordan Akins	HOU	TE	16.6	-6.7	0	0	16.6	-6.7	7.9%	0.0%	10.4%
JaMycal Hasty	SF	RB	15.8	-15.8	5.4	4.7	10.5	-1.9	7.8%	12.6%	6.6%
Maxx Williams	ARI	TE	16	5.3	0	0	16	5.3	7.7%	0.0%	9.7%
Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	13.2	-13.2	0.8	0	12.4	2.9	7.6%	1.6%	10.1%
Quez Watkins	PHI	WR	14.1	11.5	0	0	14.1	13.5	7.5%	0.0%	8.7%
Kyle Juszczyk	SF	RB	15.1	5.4	4	-2.4	11	7.9	7.5%	9.3%	6.9%
Harrison Bryant	CLE	TE	12.8	-1.2	0	0	12.8	-1.2	7.4%	0.0%	10.5%
AJ Dillon	GB	RB	14.7	-2.9	7.5	-2	7.2	-0.9	7.4%	19.6%	4.5%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	WR	15.9	3	0	0	15.9	3	7.3%	0.0%	9.7%
Robby Anderson	CAR	WR	17.4	3.9	0	0	17.4	4.9	7.3%	0.0%	9.4%
KJ Hamler	DEN	WR	15.4	-15.4	0	0	15.4	-3	7.1%	0.0%	9.7%
Amon-Ra St Brown	DET	WR	17	-6.7	0	0	17	-5.7	7.0%	0.0%	8.5%
Russell Gage	ATL	WR	15.8	-8	0	0	15.8	-2	6.9%	0.0%	8.2%
Malcolm Brown	MIA	RB	15.1	-2.3	13	-0.2	2.1	-2.1	6.8%	41.7%	1.1%
Byron Pringle	KC	WR	13.6	5.5	0	0	13.6	5.5	6.7%	0.0%	7.9%
Cedrick Wilson	DAL	WR	15.9	3.7	0.7	-0.2	15.3	3.8	6.6%	1.4%	8.1%
Jeremy McNichols	TEN	RB	14.1	6.7	2.4	-0.6	11.6	7.4	6.5%	4.5%	7.1%
Anthony Miller	HOU	WR	13.7	-1.7	0	0	13.7	-1.7	6.5%	0.0%	8.5%
Anthony Schwartz	CLE	WR	11.2	0.4	0.6	1.1	10.6	-0.7	6.5%	1.2%	8.7%
Pharaoh Brown	HOU	TE	13.6	-2.9	0	0	13.6	-2.9	6.4%	0.0%	8.5%
Demarcus Robinson	KC	WR	13	6.2	0	0	13	6.2	6.4%	0.0%	7.5%
Salvon Ahmed	MIA	RB	13.7	-7.2	4.3	-2.2	9.6	-5.2	6.2%	13.8%	5.1%
DeSean Jackson	LAR	WR	12.4	12.7	0	0	12.4	12.7	6.2%	0.0%	7.8%
Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	14.6	0.5	0	0	14.6	0.5	6.1%	0.0%	7.7%
Albert Wilson	MIA	WR	13.2	-7.2	0	0	13.2	-7.2	6.0%	0.0%	7.0%
Trey Sermon	SF	RB	12	0.2	8.1	1.8	3.9	-1.6	5.9%	18.9%	2.4%
Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	14.2	-14.2	0	0	14.2	-5.6	5.9%	0.0%	7.5%
Chris Hogan	NO	WR	8.5	2.1	0	0	8.5	2.1	5.9%	0.0%	8.0%
Allen Lazard	GB	WR	11.6	-2.8	0	0	11.6	-2.8	5.8%	0.0%	7.2%
James Washington	PIT	WR	13.9	-5.9	0	0	13.9	-5.9	5.8%	0.0%	6.6%
Darrel Williams	KC	RB	11.8	0.3	7.2	1.8	4.6	-1.5	5.8%	22.7%	2.7%
Kyle Rudolph	NYG	TE	11.9	-4.6	0	0	11.9	-4.6	5.6%	0.0%	6.6%
Parris Campbell	IND	WR	12.4	-6.1	0	0	12.4	-6.1	5.5%	0.0%	7.1%
Geoff Swaim	TEN	TE	11.9	-3.2	0	0	11.9	-3.2	5.5%	0.0%	7.3%
Trent Sherfield	SF	WR	10.9	1.3	0	0	10.9	1.3	5.4%	0.0%	6.8%
Will Fuller V	MIA	WR	11.2	-4.2	0	0	11.2	-6.2	5.1%	0.0%	5.9%
Evan Engram	NYG	TE	10.6	-6.5	0	0	10.6	-6.5	5.0%	0.0%	5.8%
Devin Duvernay	BAL	WR	7.8	4	0	0	7.8	4	4.9%	0.0%	6.2%
Collin Johnson	NYG	WR	10.2	-0.1	0	0	10.2	-0.1	4.8%	0.0%	5.6%
Eric Ebron	PIT	TE	11.6	-8.7	0	0	11.6	-8.7	4.8%	0.0%	5.5%
Danny Amendola	HOU	WR	10.2	6.1	0	0	10.2	6.1	4.8%	0.0%	6.4%
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	WR	10.1	-10.1	0	0	10.1	0.1	4.7%	0.0%	6.3%
Nico Collins	HOU	WR	9.8	-3.9	0	0	9.8	-3.9	4.6%	0.0%	6.1%
Chris Conley	HOU	WR	9.7	-2.7	0	0	9.7	-2.7	4.6%	0.0%	6.1%
Travis Homer	SEA	RB	7.3	3.9	0	0	7.3	3.9	4.6%	0.0%	5.7%
Gabriel Davis	BUF	WR	10.9	4.4	0	0	10.9	4.4	4.3%	0.0%	5.1%
Hayden Hurst	ATL	TE	9.9	-1.5	0	0	9.9	-1.5	4.3%	0.0%	5.1%
MyCole Pruitt	TEN	TE	8.3	-8.3	0	0	8.3	0.7	3.8%	0.0%	5.1%
Lee Smith	ATL	TE	8.7	2.9	0	0	8.7	2.9	3.8%	0.0%	4.5%
Will Dissly	SEA	TE	5.8	5.8	0	0	5.8	5.8	3.6%	0.0%	4.5%
Kadarius Toney	NYG	WR	7.6	-2.2	0	0	7.6	-2.2	3.6%	0.0%	4.2%
Ty Montgomery	NO	WR	5.2	-2.4	0	0	5.2	-2.4	3.6%	0.0%	4.9%
CJ Board	NYG	WR	7.5	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	6.8	0.6	3.6%	2.4%	3.7%
Donovan Peoples-Jones	CLE	WR	6.1	3.6	0	0	6.1	3.6	3.5%	0.0%	5.0%
Mo Alie-Cox	IND	TE	7.8	-1.6	0	0	7.8	-1.6	3.5%	0.0%	4.5%
Demetric Felton	CLE	RB	6	10.4	0	0	6	10.4	3.5%	0.0%	4.9%
Randall Cobb	GB	WR	6.8	3.1	0.7	-0.6	6.1	3.7	3.4%	1.8%	3.8%
Jeff Smith	NYJ	WR	6.6	0.2	0	0	6.6	0.2	3.4%	0.0%	4.0%
Josh Oliver	BAL	TE	5.3	-1.8	0	0	5.3	-1.8	3.4%	0.0%	4.2%
Kenny Stills	NO	WR	4.8	-4.8	0	0	4.8	-2.1	3.3%	0.0%	4.5%
Rashard Higgins	CLE	WR	5.7	3.4	0	0	5.7	3.4	3.3%	0.0%	4.7%
Devontae Booker	NYG	RB	6.8	-2.4	3.1	-1.5	3.7	-0.9	3.2%	10.6%	2.0%
Jody Fortson	KC	TE	6.5	4.3	0	0	6.5	4.3	3.2%	0.0%	3.8%
Tevin Coleman	NYJ	RB	6.2	-1.4	6.2	-1.4	0	0	3.2%	20.1%	0.0%
Ian Thomas	CAR	TE	7.5	-3.1	0	0	7.5	-3.1	3.1%	0.0%	4.0%
Cam Sims	WAS	WR	5.4	0.5	0.9	-0.2	4.5	0.7	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Malik Taylor	GB	WR	5.8	-2.4	0	0	5.8	-2.4	2.9%	0.0%	3.6%
Damiere Byrd	CHI	WR	4.6	0.3	0	0	4.6	0.3	2.8%	0.0%	3.4%
Jimmy Graham	CHI	TE	4.6	-2.5	0	0	4.6	-2.5	2.8%	0.0%	3.4%
Eric Saubert	DEN	TE	6.1	-2.7	0	0	6.1	-1.7	2.8%	0.0%	3.8%
Royce Freeman	CAR	RB	6.7	-3.2	5.3	-3.6	1.4	0.4	2.8%	10.1%	0.8%
Ameer Abdullah	MIN	RB	6.7	-0.4	3	-0.2	3.7	-0.2	2.8%	7.0%	1.9%
Michael Strachan	IND	WR	6.1	-1.5	0	0	6.1	-1.5	2.7%	0.0%	3.5%
Ray-Ray McCloud	PIT	WR	6.5	-0.2	0	0	6.5	-0.2	2.7%	0.0%	3.1%
Demetrius Harris	ARI	TE	5.6	-5.6	0	0	5.6	-5.6	2.7%	0.0%	3.4%
Darren Fells	DET	TE	6	0.7	0	0	6	0.7	2.5%	0.0%	3.0%
Tommy Hudson	TEN	TE	5.3	-1.6	0	0	5.3	-1.6	2.4%	0.0%	3.2%
Rex Burkhead	HOU	RB	5.1	-2	0	0	5.1	-2	2.4%	0.0%	3.2%
Tyrell Williams	DET	WR	5.8	-5.8	0	0	5.8	-2.4	2.4%	0.0%	2.9%
Anthony Firkser	TEN	TE	4.8	0.1	0	0	4.8	0.1	2.2%	0.0%	2.9%
Brandon Zylstra	CAR	WR	5.2	8.2	0	0	5.2	8.2	2.2%	0.0%	2.8%
Blake Bell	KC	TE	4.3	1.8	0.2	0	4.1	1.8	2.1%	0.6%	2.4%
Kaden Smith	NYG	TE	4.4	1.9	0	0	4.4	1.9	2.1%	0.0%	2.4%
Durham Smythe	MIA	TE	4.4	-2.5	0	0	4.4	-2.5	2.0%	0.0%	2.3%
Ashton Dulin	IND	WR	4.2	-2.9	1	-1.7	3.2	-1.2	1.9%	2.0%	1.8%
D'Wayne Eskridge	SEA	WR	2.9	0.9	1.5	0.7	1.4	0.2	1.8%	4.9%	1.1%
Preston Williams	MIA	WR	4	-2.8	0	0	4	-2.8	1.8%	0.0%	2.1%
Isaiah McKenzie	BUF	WR	4.5	-2.9	1.3	-0.8	3.2	-2.1	1.8%	3.4%	1.5%
Jauan Jennings	SF	WR	3.5	6.2	0	0	3.5	6.2	1.7%	0.0%	2.2%
Keelan Cole	NYJ	WR	3.3	1.7	0	0	3.3	1.7	1.7%	0.0%	2.0%
Tommy Tremble	CAR	TE	4	6.7	2.4	4.3	1.6	2.4	1.7%	4.6%	0.9%
Kylin Hill	GB	RB	3.3	-1.1	3.3	-1.1	0	0	1.7%	8.6%	0.0%
Penny Hart	SEA	WR	2.6	-0.9	0	0	2.6	-0.9	1.6%	0.0%	2.0%
Marlon Mack	IND	RB	3.5	-1.9	2.2	-0.6	1.3	-1.3	1.6%	4.4%	0.7%
Boston Scott	PHI	RB	2.8	-0.3	0	0	2.8	-0.3	1.5%	0.0%	1.7%
Jaret Patterson	WAS	RB	2.7	-1.8	1.4	-0.5	1.4	-1.4	1.5%	4.5%	0.9%
Andre Roberts	HOU	WR	2.9	1.6	0	0	2.9	1.6	1.4%	0.0%	1.8%
Adam Shaheen	MIA	TE	3	-3	0	0	3	-1	1.4%	0.0%	1.6%
Devonta Freeman	BAL	RB	2.1	1.6	2.1	1.6	0	0	1.3%	6.6%	0.0%
Tommy Sweeney	BUF	TE	3.3	-1.1	0	0	3.3	-1.1	1.3%	0.0%	1.6%
Dede Westbrook	MIN	WR	3.1	-1	0	0	3.1	0	1.3%	0.0%	1.6%
Chris Herndon	MIN	TE	3	-3	0	0	3	-3	1.2%	0.0%	1.5%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	NO	WR	1.8	1.9	0	0	1.8	1.9	1.2%	0.0%	1.7%
Cody White	PIT	WR	2.8	0.9	0	0	2.8	0.9	1.2%	0.0%	1.3%
Ricky Seals-Jones	WAS	TE	2.1	6.8	0	0	2.1	6.8	1.1%	0.0%	1.4%
Trenton Cannon	SF	RB	2.3	-2.4	2.3	-1.4	0	0	1.1%	5.4%	0.0%
Christian Blake	ATL	WR	2.6	-0.8	0	0	2.6	-0.8	1.1%	0.0%	1.3%
Tajae Sharpe	ATL	WR	2.6	0.8	0	0	2.6	0.8	1.1%	0.0%	1.3%
Jakeem Grant	MIA	WR	2.4	-1.4	0	0	2.4	-1.4	1.1%	0.0%	1.3%
KhaDarel Hodge	DET	WR	2.6	-0.7	0	0	2.6	-0.7	1.1%	0.0%	1.3%
Greg Ward	PHI	WR	2	6.5	0	0	2	6.5	1.1%	0.0%	1.2%
DeeJay Dallas	SEA	RB	1.6	0.4	0.4	0.1	1.3	0.2	1.0%	1.3%	1.0%
James Proche	BAL	WR	1.5	2.4	0	0	1.5	2.4	0.9%	0.0%	1.2%
Alex Collins	SEA	RB	1.5	1.8	1.5	1.8	0	0	0.9%	4.9%	0.0%
Diontae Spencer	DEN	WR	1.9	-1.2	0	0	1.9	-1.2	0.9%	0.0%	1.2%
Racey McMath	TEN	WR	1.9	-1.9	0	0	1.9	-1.9	0.9%	0.0%	1.2%
Corey Clement	DAL	RB	2.1	-2.1	2.1	-2.1	0	0	0.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Jake Kumerow	BUF	WR	2.1	-2.1	0	0	2.1	-2.1	0.8%	0.0%	1.0%
Jerick McKinnon	KC	RB	1.7	0.7	0	0	1.7	0.7	0.8%	0.0%	1.0%
Cameron Batson	TEN	WR	1.8	0.5	0	0	1.8	0.5	0.8%	0.0%	1.1%
Gary Brightwell	NYG	RB	1.7	0.3	0.4	0	1.3	0.3	0.8%	1.4%	0.7%
Equanimeous St Brown	GB	WR	1.6	-1.6	0	0	1.6	-0.6	0.8%	0.0%	1.0%
Marcedes Lewis	GB	TE	1.6	1.3	0	0	1.6	1.3	0.8%	0.0%	1.0%
Denzel Mims	NYJ	WR	1.5	3.5	0	0	1.5	3.5	0.8%	0.0%	0.9%
Elijhaa Penny	NYG	RB	1.6	-0.5	1.6	-0.5	0	0	0.8%	5.5%	0.0%
Alex Erickson	CAR	WR	1.8	1.7	0	0	1.8	1.7	0.8%	0.0%	1.0%
Amari Rodgers	GB	WR	1.5	1.4	0	0	1.5	1.4	0.8%	0.0%	0.9%
Josiah Deguara	GB	TE	1.5	-0.1	0	0	1.5	-0.1	0.8%	0.0%	0.9%
Kendall Hinton	DEN	WR	1.6	0.9	0	0	1.6	0.9	0.7%	0.0%	1.0%
Marcus Kemp	KC	WR	1.5	-1.5	0	0	1.5	-1.5	0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
Noah Gray	KC	TE	1.5	0	0	0	1.5	0	0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
Matt Breida	BUF	RB	1.8	-1.4	1.8	-1.4	0	0	0.7%	4.7%	0.0%
Rashaad Penny	SEA	RB	1.1	-0.3	1.1	-0.3	0	0	0.7%	3.6%	0.0%
Cethan Carter	MIA	TE	1.5	0.3	0	0	1.5	0.3	0.7%	0.0%	0.8%
Zach Gentry	PIT	TE	1.6	-0.8	0	0	1.6	-0.8	0.7%	0.0%	0.8%
Mack Hollins	MIA	WR	1.4	-1.4	0	0	1.4	-1.4	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%
Noah Brown	DAL	WR	1.4	0.5	0	0	1.4	0.5	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%
Parker Hesse	ATL	TE	1.3	-1.3	0	0	1.3	-1.3	0.6%	0.0%	0.7%
Damarea Crockett	DEN	RB	1.2	-0.5	1.2	-0.5	0	0	0.6%	2.1%	0.0%
D'Ernest Johnson	CLE	RB	0.9	0	0.9	0	0	0	0.5%	1.8%	0.0%
Raheem Mostert	SF	RB	1	-1	1	1	0	0	0.5%	2.3%	0.0%
Mekhi Sargent	TEN	RB	0.9	-0.5	0.9	-0.5	0	0	0.4%	1.7%	0.0%
Benny Snell	PIT	RB	0.9	-0.8	0.9	-0.8	0	0	0.4%	3.2%	0.0%
DeAndre Carter	WAS	WR	0.5	-0.3	0.5	-0.3	0	0	0.3%	1.6%	0.0%
Jake Funk	LAR	RB	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.2	0	0	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%

How Do We Value the Overall Pie?

So now we know which players have the largest slices of their teams’ pies, but that’s only part of the puzzle. We also want to know how big we should expect each team’s overall pie to be. Vegas lines can give us a general sense of how many total fantasy points a team might score. But again, everyone is relying on Vegas lines. Can we find a different input that far fewer DFS players are using? The Weekly GLSP tool is helpful here. With a little extra calculation, we can aggregate the non-QB GLSP numbers by team to get a team-level projection that is already very different from anything else available in the industry. The table below lists GLSP-implied team projections for every team on the DraftKings main slate.

Team	Average	Floor	Median	Ceiling
BUF	110.9	58.4	101.1	149.5
MIA	100.6	58.3	92.6	131.1
GB	84.4	47.9	79.8	118.4
MIN	87.6	48.7	81	118.3
CLE	89.7	46.1	80.6	118.2
SEA	83.4	43.5	72.5	113.7
KC	78.3	40.1	66.9	109.8
ATL	78.6	39.5	69.2	106.9
HOU	84.4	49.7	72.3	105.4
SF	70.2	35.5	60.5	98.6
PIT	69.1	37	60.1	98.3
ARI	70.1	39.8	61.6	97.3
LAR	72.2	41.5	65.8	96.9
PHI	69.5	36.8	63.6	96.2
DEN	68.6	35.6	61.1	94.1
WAS	65.7	37.4	59	91.3
DET	66.6	35.9	55.1	89.8
DAL	67.1	38.5	61.4	88.9
NYJ	63.7	29.9	56.2	88.2
CHI	66.9	38	59.7	87.5
CAR	62.7	33.8	55.1	82.9
NYG	56.1	31.1	50.6	78.4
BAL	58.5	24.4	49.3	78.3
IND	56.4	28.4	50	77
NO	50	20.2	41.3	74.3
TEN	46.8	24	37.6	65.9

Top Plays for Week 4

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

The Raiders Might Not Find Any Deals This Black Friday, But Everyone Is Thankful for Brock Bowers: The Wrong Read, Week 13 – Thanksgiving Preview

Blair Andrews November 27, 2024

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...