DFS is primarily a numbers game based on three levers: 1) Player Projections, 2) Percent Rostered, and 3) Roster Construction. Depending on your contest selection (cash, small-field GPP, large-field GPP), you will need to pull these three levers to different degrees. In GPPs, we focus on ceiling projection, roster percentage, and correlation.
In GPP tournaments, we don’t need the highest possible score. Rather, we just need the highest score compared to our opponents. This is where leverage comes into play. The question I ask myself to gain leverage on the field is: “How can I exploit how the rest of the field is going to construct rosters?” I am not telling you to fade all of the chalk. But I am saying that if you do fade chalk, then you can gain leverage by constructing a roster based on the scenarios where the chalk fails. Does another player on the same team score? Does the entire offense fail? Does the opponent run up the score?
I primarily play small-field GPPs (100-1000 entries) on FanDuel, so will mostly discuss leverage in this context. A key point about small-field GPPs is that the best plays are often rostered on an even higher percentage of teams than they would be in large-fields. The chalk gets even chalkier, making it (oftentimes) easier to access leverage.
Note: I am publishing this article before weekend news and roster percentage projection changes.
