Week 1 Buy Low Report – The Buffalo Passing Offense

Conor O’Driscoll
September 15, 2021

The Strength of Schedule (SOS) Streaming app allows you to see which players have the easiest or most difficult upcoming schedules, a potentially league-winning edge that gives you the opportunity to buy low on players right before they explode in plus matchups.

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The Buffalo Passing Offense

The Buffalo Bills have a progressive offensive philosophy predicated on passing to win. This means they will continue throwing the ball, regardless of game script. Last year they had an NFL-leading game pace of 27 pass attempts per 60 minutes when ahead by at least seven points, good for a 57% pass rate.

This means the passing offense as a whole potentially has the highest volume floor in the NFL.

Last Sunday, they did not deliver on that volume. Josh Allen had 51 pass attempts but only produced 270 yards and one touchdown with a measly 5.3 yards per attempt. This lack of efficiency is eerily similar to Allen’s prior seasons, where he was labeled as a project. Recency bias is an inescapable cognitive bias that always strikes after Week 1. There were also many calling out the possibility for an extreme regression following Allen’s historic efficiency jump last year. This may be an opportunity to capitalize on a mixture of confirmation and recency bias.

Week 1 data sample size caveats aside, Buffalo receivers have an extremely juicy-looking schedule the rest of the way.

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Conor O’Driscoll

2021 FFPC Bestball Tournament Champion and RotoViz writer. Find me on twitter at https://twitter.com/DricoOut

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