DFS is primarily a numbers game based on three levers: 1) Player Projections, 2) Ownership, and 3) Roster Construction. Depending on your contest selection (cash, small-field GPP, large-field GPP), you will need to pull these three levers to different degrees. Generally, in cash games we optimize for median projection, while in GPPs we focus on ceiling projection, ownership, and correlation.
In GPP tournaments, we don’t necessarily need the highest possible score, rather we just need the highest score compared to our opponents. This is where leverage comes into play. The question I ask myself to gain leverage on the field is: “How can I exploit how the rest of the field is going to construct rosters?” I am not telling you to necessarily fade all of the chalk. But I am saying that if you decide to fade certain chalk, then you can gain leverage by constructing a roster based on the scenarios that the chalk fails. Does another player on the same team score instead? Does the entire offense fail? Does the opponent run up the score?
The degree to which you should exploit leverage depends on your contest selection. I primarily play small-field GPPs (100-1000 entries) on FanDuel, so will mostly discuss leverage in this context. A key point about small-field GPPs is that player ownership often condenses on to the best plays. Essentially, the chalk gets even chalkier and the risky plays are much lower owned.
Note: I am publishing this article before weekend news and ownership projection changes.
