Second-Year Wide Receivers Are Still the Most Overpowered Cheat Code in Fantasy Football: 2 Simple Thresholds Reveal the Top Breakout Candidates

Corbin Young
July 10, 2021

Corbin Young uses the RotoViz tools and a couple of simple metrics to find the top Year 2 wide receiver breakout candidates for 2021.

Last season, we enjoyed several talented rookie wide receivers in Tee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, and Brandon Aiyuk. But we know that Year 2 is when receivers truly shine. Given how strong last year’s rookie class turned out to be, we have a right to be excited about the possibility of sophomore breakouts.

About a year ago, Blair Andrews wrote about wide receiver age and opportunity. Blair notes that players earn a positive change in target market share and raw targets between their first and second years. Furthermore, finding receivers who scored 100 fantasy points and entered the league at 21 years old provides us with additional firepower.

Below, we see the win rates for wide receivers who scored 100 points in the previous season, based on their age in the previous season.

21-year-old rookies who scored 100 points in Year 1 — as long as they play in at least one game in Year 2 — have best ball win rates north of 10% as sophomores. So who are 2021’s breakout candidates?

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Corbin Young

These 2 Teams with New Starters Could Provide Massive Fantasy Value: Small Gap Backfields to Watch Closely During the Preseason

Corbin Young August 11, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with a dominant veteran and potential breakouts to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

A Dominant Veteran and Some Breakout Backs: 2 Big Gap Backfields and Offenses To Target

Corbin Young July 18, 2024

Last time we looked at small gap running backs and identified some undervalued veterans and young backs based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two big gap backfields, including a veteran joining a new high-powered offense and a breakout running back valued similarly to last season. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates…...

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Veterans and Young Running Backs: 2 Small Gap Backfields Offer Opportunities for a Variety of Strategic Approaches

Corbin Young July 8, 2024

Last time, we looked at small gap running backs on two teams with new offensive coordinators to identify undervalued players based on their ADP. Today we’ll cover two more small gap running backs, including a veteran and a younger option. The idea of small gap and big gap RBs comes from Jack Miller’s research on the win and hit rates for big or small gap backs,…...