Running Back Draft Age Is Still Exploitable And It Provides an Earlier, Larger Edge Than You Might Think, The Wrong Read, No. 72

Blair Andrews
June 10, 2021

Blair Andrews revisits his research on running back draft age. Do younger RBs still provide an edge? Where does that edge come from? And which RBs should we be targeting in redraft and trading for in dynasty?

We know, when looking for fantasy wide receiver prospects, younger is generally better. Does this hold for running back prospects? In the Wrong Read, No 30, I found a strong advantage to chasing younger RB prospects. Is this still the case, or has the NFL caught up?

Draft Age and Early Career Running Back Fantasy Production

In our look at WRs, we compared average PPR points per season based on draft age. In at least one way, that method biases the results, because players with more seasons have a greater impact on the averages. Of course, that might not be a bad thing. If players who are drafted at a younger age go on to longer (and more productive) careers, we want to know that. But it’s not the exact question we are trying to answer.

Instead, let’s focus on early career productivity — how does draft age impact fantasy scoring over the first two years of a player’s career? My dataset includes every RB who entered the NFL between 2000 and 2019 (to ensure we have two years of data) and recorded an offensive stat in at least one game. The results, as at WR, are striking.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Can Cleveland Throw in the Weather? The Wrong Read, Week 12 – Thursday Night Preview

Blair Andrews November 21, 2024

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...