The second major of the year is here, and the tour is heading back to The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island for this year’s PGA Championship. As usual, we’re in a yardage arms race so the scorecard will read over 7,800 yards. PGA Championships have slowly morphed more into U.S. Open setups with their length. It’s worth noting, obviously, that the yardage number on the scorecard isn’t always the yardage they’ll actually play. But it’s noteworthy because it is over 130 yards longer than the previous longest major. Rory McIlroy ($11,500) demolished the field here last time around and is coming off a win, so *insert rocket emoji here*. 

Volatility Report

I’m testing out a new section in the article this week. During the main COVID-induced lockdown I did some podcasts where I spoke about how volatility affects a golfer’s range of outcomes. In thinking about it more and more, I’ve gone back and forth on how to quantify it. So, I’d rather show you, the reader, how I’m looking at volatility and you can draw your own conclusions from the visuals. I’m measuring volatility with the standard deviation of scoring over different time frames. This isn’t my interpretation of how volatile golfers are and it’s not subjective. It’s just what the numbers say as far as scoring deviation for a given golfer. 

In theory, we want golfers that are on the right side of the chart here. Whether you want to target the top half or the bottom half is more a matter of personal preference. As you go higher on the y-axis, golfers are becoming more and more volatile. I’m of the mindset that we should be targeting the more consistent golfers that are in this price range, i.e. less volatile. 

As we go down to the mid-range, we’re looking for upside. Sam Burns ($7,500) comes in with excellent form and is one of the highest-rated golfers in this price tier. These golfers are naturally more volatile than the stud range and we want to embrace that volatility in GPPs. 

PGA Championship - Perfect Lineup Percentages