The Tour heads over to the RBC Heritage this week for a surprisingly strong field the week after a major. The course is a familiar one in Harbour Town Golf Links. It’s a 7,100-yard par 71. The greens are small and there’s not a premium on distance, which means this is a course unlike many others that tour golfers will face throughout the season.

Checking The Chalk

As things stand at the time of this writing, Webb Simpson ($10,700) and Brian Harman ($8,700) look like they’ll be the golfers that come in with the most ownership.

Simpson is No. 9 in the world, comes in with the fourth-best PRK Score, and is a week removed from a T12 in the most recent major. He checks both boxes for the stud range. We take ownership considerations seriously here, but with a historical 60.3% ceiling rate, it may be worth it to eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere.

Harman has been playing excellent golf lately. The lefty hasn’t missed a cut since November and has three straight T12 finishes or better on his recent form resume. In this range, Harman checks only two of the three boxes, which makes him an easy fade for me at this ownership/price combination.

What The Optimizer is Telling Us

If I basically lock Simpson and exclude Harman from the run of the optimizer, we get an interesting exposure list. I limited the max exposure to 70% and introduced a bit (5%) of randomness.

Based on this season’s results so far, it’s hard to argue with most of the names on this list. Chesson Hadley ($6,300) is probably the biggest surprise, but he is coming off of a couple solid finishes in his last two starts.

Perfect Lineup Percentage - RBC Heritage