We know the course, we know the main players. There’s not really much to talk about as far as “intros” go this week. There’s something about this week that’s comforting. It was great to see Augusta in the late Fall, but nothing compares with an April nap while watching the Masters!
Checking the Chalk
Jordan Spieth ($9,400) seems to be back. Even during his slump, people played him at Augusta. With him rounding into form, the sky’s the limit for his ownership. Spieth will likely see at least 30% ownership in most GPPs this week. Historically, we’d like to target golfers in the mid-range that are in the bottom half of ownership. Spieth is intriguing, and it’s impossible to suggest an outright fade of him given his recent form and history here. Patrick Reed ($9,300) checks all of the boxes from our game theory series, though, and will be in a large chunk of my builds this weekend.
Paul Casey ($7,700) and Daniel Berger ($8,500) look like they’ll also be highly owned once lock rolls around. Sandwiched between those two, we see Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,100) with the next highest PRK Score. If one (or both) of Casey or Berger were to fail, Fitzpatrick is a great price pivot.
The Perfect Lineup
I wanted to switch things up a bit this week and share the results of the “perfect lineups.” For the uninitiated, the “perfect lineup percentages” come from my simulator. I run 5,000 iterations of each tournament and for each simulation, I see what the “perfect” lineup would have been.
Perfect Lineup Results
Name | Salary | Perfect Lineup % |
---|---|---|
Bryson Dechambeau | 10800 | 0.239 |
Jon Rahm | 11000 | 0.213 |
Justin Thomas | 10600 | 0.193 |
Tony Finau | 9100 | 0.172 |
Daniel Berger | 8500 | 0.169 |
Patrick Cantlay | 9800 | 0.168 |
Xander Schauffele | 10000 | 0.163 |
Webb Simpson | 9000 | 0.156 |
Will Zalatoris | 7300 | 0.156 |
Patrick Reed | 9300 | 0.147 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | 8100 | 0.144 |
Dustin Johnson | 11500 | 0.136 |
Corey Conners | 6900 | 0.135 |
Viktor Hovland | 8700 | 0.129 |
Joaquin Niemann | 7400 | 0.119 |
Scottie Scheffler | 8400 | 0.117 |
Sungjae Im | 8600 | 0.116 |
Jason Kokrak | 6900 | 0.114 |
Brooks Koepka | 9200 | 0.111 |
Jordan Spieth | 9400 | 0.109 |
Max Homa | 7100 | 0.105 |
Paul Casey | 7700 | 0.103 |
Rory Mcilroy | 10200 | 0.101 |
Tyrrell Hatton | 8900 | 0.1 |
Ryan Palmer | 6500 | 0.094 |
Abraham Ancer | 7400 | 0.092 |
Collin Morikawa | 9600 | 0.092 |
Si Woo Kim | 6700 | 0.091 |
Jason Day | 7500 | 0.086 |
Cameron Smith | 8200 | 0.085 |
Brian Harman | 6800 | 0.084 |
Hideki Matsuyama | 8300 | 0.082 |
Harris English | 7300 | 0.079 |
Matt Jones | 6300 | 0.076 |
Shane Lowry | 7000 | 0.075 |
Carlos Ortiz | 6500 | 0.07 |
Louis Oosthuizen | 7500 | 0.067 |
Adam Scott | 7600 | 0.066 |
Billy Horschel | 7200 | 0.065 |
Lee Westwood | 8800 | 0.064 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 6700 | 0.061 |
Tommy Fleetwood | 8000 | 0.059 |
Zach Johnson | 6300 | 0.057 |
Justin Rose | 7200 | 0.057 |
Lanto Griffin | 6400 | 0.056 |
Brendon Todd | 6200 | 0.055 |
Kevin Na | 6500 | 0.054 |
Kevin Kisner | 6700 | 0.053 |
Matthew Wolff | 7100 | 0.053 |
Sergio Garcia | 7900 | 0.049 |
Ian Poulter | 6800 | 0.047 |
Matt Wallace | 6400 | 0.045 |
Mackenzie Hughes | 6300 | 0.042 |
Larry Mize | 6000 | 0.038 |
Stewart Cink | 6100 | 0.034 |
Sebastian Munoz | 6600 | 0.034 |
Danny Willett | 6600 | 0.033 |
Gary Woodland | 6800 | 0.033 |
Dylan Frittelli | 6700 | 0.032 |
Bubba Watson | 7800 | 0.03 |
Michael Thompson | 6100 | 0.029 |
Matt Kuchar | 6800 | 0.027 |
C.t. Pan | 6400 | 0.025 |
Victor Perez | 7000 | 0.025 |
Tyler Strafaci | 6200 | 0.023 |
Francesco Molinari | 7000 | 0.022 |
Joe Long | 6000 | 0.021 |
Martin Laird | 6300 | 0.02 |
Bernd Wiesberger | 6400 | 0.02 |
Cameron Champ | 6600 | 0.019 |
Sandy Lyle | 6000 | 0.019 |
Robert Streb | 6000 | 0.019 |
Charl Schwartzel | 6300 | 0.018 |
Phil Mickelson | 6600 | 0.017 |
Jose Maria Olazabal | 6000 | 0.015 |
Marc Leishman | 6900 | 0.013 |
Hudson Swafford | 6200 | 0.013 |
Henrik Stenson | 6200 | 0.012 |
Jim Herman | 6000 | 0.009 |
Brian Gay | 6200 | 0.008 |
Jimmy Walker | 6200 | 0.007 |
Robert Macintyre | 6500 | 0.006 |
Ian Woosnam | 0 | 0.005 |
Fred Couples | 6100 | 0.003 |
Vijay Singh | 6100 | 0.002 |
Bernhard Langer | 6100 | 0 |
Ollie Osborne | 6100 | 0 |
Mike Weir | 6100 | 0 |