6 Years In And Freak Score Is Still Finding You Touchdowns

Matt Spencer
March 12, 2021

Freak Score is our home grown size adjusted speed metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects. Unlike many other measures for an NFL prospect’s size/athleticism profile, the Freak Score incorporates player height. Since its inception 6 years ago the NFL has seen a great many changing trends, but the Freak Score has remained a top predictor.

The Freak Score tool was established to help us identify players such as D.K. Metcalf or Chase Claypool who looked primed to enter the NFL as touchdown magnets. The metric is scaled to make it more user friendly with a range of 1-100. Currently, Calvin Johnson sets our scale at 100, and he’s unlikely to be dethroned.

I decided to revisit the metric to see how well it has held up over the years, with a few key questions in mind:

How accurate has the metric really been?
Over the years the NFL has seen shifting team trends. Do we need to update the formulation for Freak Score?
Can we apply Freak Score to other positions?

Finding the Next Metcalf and Claypool

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Matt Spencer

Machine Learning Approach to Football Analytics with JavaScript

DFS Insights for the Week 5 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis

Matt Spencer October 7, 2023

Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you could catch up here. This week we made major upgrades to the analysis. Methodology (In-Brief) Aggregated projections from six sources for the first five weeks Collected the actual results of the first four weeks. Collected information…...

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DFS Insights for the Week 4 Slate with K-Means Cluster Analysis

Matt Spencer September 28, 2023

Welcome back to the series! In the previous installment, we dissected the strategies that worked for Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season retroactively using k-means clustering. If you missed it, you can catch up on our initial entry here. Now, armed with insights from the first three weeks, we’re ready to tackle Week 4 and recommend a robust player pool for DFS success. Methodology…...

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Unpacking Week 2: K-Means Clustering for DFS Insights

Matt Spencer September 19, 2023

In this article we’ll explore the power of k-means clustering analysis to figure out how we could have taken down the slate the most effectively. By isolating the projected Vegas spread, game total, matchup, projected points, salary, risk, and reward, we should be able to uncover some insights to help us in the coming weeks. Week 2 of the NFL season brought us a plethora…...