Shawn Siegele and Sam Wallace flex their dynasty draft muscles in a friendly competition to select the best 2021 superflex startup rosters.
With the 2020 regular season completed, dynasty startup season is just around the corner. In the Dynasty Draft-Off series, Sam Wallace and I have created a fun exercise to see who can craft the best lineups. We’ll alternate picks. Sam has the six teams with odd picks in Round 1. I have the evens. We’re not just focusing on the best picks but trying to create the best teams.
Throughout the mock we’ll debate our picks, make the case for our selections, analyze draft tactics, and discuss team construction. In the process, we’ll attack the key dynasty questions for the 2021 offseason.
- After a good season for young quarterbacks and the increased attention on hybrid QBs in fantasy, how many signal-callers will join Round 1? Where will the second tier start to come off the board, and what will owners need to do to protect themselves at this all-important position.
- Alvin Kamara enjoyed the third-best win rate among first-round RBs in the last four years. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley spent most of the year injured. Barkley is the youngest. McCaffrey still has the most upside. Who will be the top RB in 2021?
- Davante Adams, fresh from a historic campaign, looks to rise to No. 1 at the WR position at age 28. Can he hold off the young guns looking to take the thrown?
- Derrick Henry joined a select group of RBs to rush for 2,000 yards, but the lack of receptions still limited his upside. At age 27, his well into the range where RB trade values tend to collapse. Just how far will he fall in dynasty?
- The WR position dominated in 2020 with the RB Dead Zone creating zombie rosters for RB-heavy squads. How will the early rounds play out at the two positions?
- Travis Kelce posted one of the best win rates ever at the tight end position, and rostering an elite TE was often the difference between winning and losing in 2020. The combination of stud QBs and elite TEs acted as rocket fuel in 2020 and a new type of Zero RB drafter reaped the rewards. How crucial is this position to dynasty team construction, and how should drafters balance upside and age in startups?
Join Sam and me as we debate players and discuss tactics in the 2021 Dynasty Draft-Off. As always, our dynasty content is geared to helping you create the Permanent Championship Window.
As the Draft-Off begins with a breakdown of Round 1, let’s pull up the 2020 FFPC Superflex startup ADP.
A couple of quick notes:
- Six QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, and a second tier went off the board early in Round 3.
- Three of the first five picks were RBs, and that position accounted for half of the first round.
- Michael Thomas was the only WR to make an appearance in Round 1, and only four more WRs went in Round 2. Even the third round demonstrated little WR enthusiasm.
We’re not including 2021 rookies in this startup, but the world famous Dynasty Command Center Rookie Guide goes deeper than any other fantasy source. Pre-order yours today.
Round 1
1.01 Patrick Mahomes
1.02 Kyler Murray
At 23 years old and offering the best combination of rushing and passing value, Murray offers the most upside of any fantasy asset. He’s also the riskiest player to go in the top five.
Murray entered the Week 11 contest with Seattle averaging 32.4 points per game. He injured his shoulder against the Seahawks and scored only 19.3 the rest of the way.
Although it obviously limited his effectiveness both as a passer and rusher, Murray downplayed the injury, and it wasn’t the only cause of his decline. According to our advanced strength of schedule tool, Murray faced the third-easiest schedule through 10 weeks but the NFL’s hardest schedule over those final seven games.
This unfortunate confluence of events led to a staggering decline in efficiency.
| Player | EP | FPOE | PaEP | PaFPOE | ruEP | ruFPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1-10 | 22.8 | 9.6 | 15.9 | 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Week 11-17 | 21.7 | -2.4 | 17.2 | -1.8 | 4.5 | -0.6 |
Over the first 10 weeks, Murray averaged more expected fantasy points as a rusher (ruFPOE) than Lamar Jackson. With his blinding speed, he managed to more than double the expected outcome, scoring a total of 13.3 PPG solely as a ball carrier. During the late-season collapse, those rushing points dried up. His ruEP dropped to 4.5 and he underperformed even that.
Overall, Murray went from averaging 9.6 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) to underperforming his volume by 2.4 PPG. To create a split where Murray lost 13 PPG, we can guess that he struggled in all categories. Though he passed a little more frequently, his total EP also dropped by a point.
The 2020 season raised plenty of questions about the Cardinals’ overall tactics and Kliff Kingsbury’s ability as a game manager. Their lack of creativity in deploying DeAndre Hopkins also threw up red flags. Arizona has work to do in the offseason, but Murray’s upside is too enticing to ignore.
