Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 16 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Tony Pollard reminds us not to give up on our theses so soon.
You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB stars. This weekly column will help you unearth waiver wire gems before they start to shine. Along the way we’ll also look at changing depth chart situations to help you find trade targets and make informed start/sit decisions.
We’ll focus on opportunity (snaps, carries, and targets), expected points (EP), and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE), using RotoViz apps like the RotoViz Screener, the Weekly Stat Explorer, and the NFL Stat Explorer to find key trends and insights.
Be sure to check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake fell behind Chase Edmonds in both rushing and receiving in Week 15, and was also less effective. Edmonds has now had at least 7.0 reEP in five consecutive games.
However, this is the first time he’s had more ruEP than Drake in a game in which they’ve both been active. If this is a changing of the guard, I’m here for it. But I’d be even more here for Eno Benjamin getting some run for the final two weeks of the season, especially considering the matchup currently on tap.
Atlanta Falcons
Nothing to see here.[1]
Ito Smith has been officially named the starter. Unfortunately, it turns out Ito Smith is Alfred Blue.
Carolina Panthers
Rodney Smith might sound like a familiar name. However, you’re probably confusing him with Rodney Anderson, the Oklahoma RB drafted by the Bengals. Or maybe Rod Smith, the former Cowboys fullback. Or maybe Rodney Smith, the former Vikings wide receiver who now plays in the CFL.
But this Rodney Smith, a rookie RB who signed with the Panthers as a UDFA, is a distinct entity. This Rodney Smith had two 1,000-yard rushing seasons at Minnesota, including one with 23 catches. This Rodney Smith supposedly runs a 4.41 forty at 210 pounds.
With Christian McCaffrey looking doubtful for Week 16, and the Panthers apparently no longer trusting Mike Davis to carry the load — at least in the receiving game — look for Smith to build on this mini breakout.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott was a late inactive, which gave Tony Pollard a chance to finally show what he could do with the backfield to himself. He did not disappoint.
Pollard finished as the top-scoring RB of the week, and the only RB to manage the EP double-double (double-digit points in both rushing EP and receiving EP). Pollard was a RotoViz favorite all offseason, and for much of the year it looked like he would disappoint us. But remember, if your thesis on a player appears to be wrong, it probably just means you don’t have a long enough time horizon.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers has looked like something approaching a true workhorse RB over the past few weeks. Unfortunately he left Week 15 with an ankle injury, and has already been ruled out for the fantasy Super Bowl. In games Akers has missed, Henderson has looked almost like an RB2.
Footnotes
| ↑1 | If you really want to know how bad it was, three different RBs carried the ball for Atlanta. Two of them finished the game with negative yards. Ito Smith led the team with six carries for 24 yards. The 10 targets directed at Falcons RBs — if you count Keith Smith — gained a total of nine yards combined. I told you there was nothing to see. |
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