James Robinson Redeems the Rookie RBs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us So Far in 2020

Blair Andrews
November 24, 2020

Blair Andrews discusses a disturbing development for Alvin Kamara, details the continuing dominance of James Robinson, and locates a WR breakout that’s occurring well under the fantasy radar.

I’m moving the explanation of Expected Points (EP) and Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) to the end of the article this week, but it’s always a good refresher for new readers. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I’m also including more of the data and discussion above the paywall this week, although the key WR breakout takeaway is still for subscribers only.

As we’re now finished with the FFPC regular season, this seems like a good time to review the season from an EP perspective. Who are the leaders, and who do we expect to continue to lead the way? Who do the numbers suggest could be a breakout fantasy playoff performer? With these questions in mind, let’s look at the season long data:^[1]I’ve included Week 11 data at the end of the article.

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Player	Team	Pos	Games	EP	FPOE	ruEP	ruFPOE	reEP	reFPOE	msRuEP	msReEP	msEP	PPR

Player	Team	Pos	Games	EP	FPOE	ruEP	ruFPOE	reEP	reFPOE	msRuEP	msReEP	msEP	PPR
Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	10	200.5	56.9	81.3	20.3	119.1	36.7	42.5%	21.9%	26.7%	257.4
Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	9	182.7	-16.6	110.4	-19.2	72.1	2.8	77.2%	12.0%	24.5%	166.1
Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	9	181.9	63.4	139.5	51.4	42.3	12.1	75.7%	11.6%	33.1%	245.3
Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	10	180.1	20.4	0	0	178.7	21.8	0.0%	30.5%	24.3%	200.5
Josh Jacobs	LV	RB	10	170.7	-1.5	127	2.4	43.6	-3.8	75.6%	8.8%	25.7%	169.2
Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	9	160.9	2.3	131.5	12.7	29.5	-10.5	82.4%	6.4%	25.8%	163.2
Davante Adams	GB	WR	8	157.3	55.4	0	0	157.3	55.4	0.0%	35.5%	28.3%	212.7
DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	WR	10	156.3	30.9	0	0	156.3	30.9	0.0%	29.1%	23.5%	187.2
Mike Davis	CAR	RB	10	154.8	-0.4	69.8	-6.9	84.9	6.6	51.7%	16.4%	23.7%	154.4
Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	10	154.7	47.5	8.7	3.3	146	44.2	8.8%	24.1%	21.0%	202.2

Showing 1 to 10 of 508 entries

Leaders

Alvin Kamara has a nearly 20-point lead in total EP over the No 2. player, Ezekiel Elliott. If Week 11 is any indication of the way this offense will look over the coming weeks, he may have difficulty maintaining that lead. Kamara only handled less than 28% of the Saints rushing EP and just over 3% of their receiving EP. Taysom Hill accounted for more than half of the Saints ruEP, and when he did throw, he targeted Michael Thomas. Thomas, for his part, ranks fifth in market share of receiving EP on the season. The second half of the Saints’ season is very likely to feature slightly less Kamara, and slightly more Thomas.

We spend a lot of time talking about the breakout rookie WRs in this space, but we don’t often discuss the rookie RBs. In part that’s because the rookie RBs have largely disappointed, with one notable exception: James Robinson leads all players in msRuEP. Robinson is currently the RB3 on the season, though he trails the RB2 Dalvin Cook by about 70 PPR points. Much of that can be accounted for by his meager 10.4% market share of reEP, which keeps his overall EP from rising to truly elite levels.^[2]Cook’s 11.6% share of reEP is not much better, but he’s made up for it with a league-leading 63.4 total FPOE.

Breakout Watch

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Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	I’ve included Week 11 data at the end of the article.
↑2	Cook’s 11.6% share of reEP is not much better, but he’s made up for it with a league-leading 63.4 total FPOE.

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Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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