Ultimate Zero RB Watch List – AFC Week 4: Rex Burkhead Explodes, Edwards-Helaire Emerges, and 5 Key Stashes for Deep Leagues

Shawn Siegele
September 30, 2020

Shawn Siegele looks at big games from Rex Burkhead and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, worries about the collapsing value of Ravens running backs, and offers five deep RB stashes for deep-league owners. Enjoy the ride as he breaks down the workload for AFC backfields ahead of Week 4.

Our goal with the Zero RB Watch List is to help you locate RB breakouts and waiver adds before they happen, but this column isn’t just for Zero RB owners. We’re just as focused on key changes to the usage profiles for high-end backs. Understanding workloads is key to making tough redraft and dynasty trades.

The RotoViz Screener and NFL Stat Explorer provide a smorgasbord of data as we dive into the advanced stats on a team-by-team basis. Much of the focus is on how RBs score their points. We use expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) along with carries, targets, snaps, and red zone touches to better understand each player’s workload.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s hard to understate how completely the Ravens running game has collapsed as a fantasy force over the first three weeks of 2020. During this stretch, only one back has managed a game with even 10 Expected Points (EP). That was Mark Ingram in Week 2. He overperformed his volume and appeared to again be a low-end starter. That proved to be a mirage as he followed up with a 3.0 point game. Swallowed up by Kansas City defenders, he was liberally subbed for J.K. Dobbins in the receiving game and Gus Edwards as a rusher.

In 2019, the Ravens’ vaunted offense ranked No. 3 in ruEP to the RB position, but those numbers have fallen from 15.6 EP/G to 11.4 in 2020. Most games won’t look like their debacle against the Chiefs, but it’s hard to see where all the value will suddenly come from. Dobbins led in snaps (43%) and yet only earned five opportunities. That four of them were targets is encouraging, but expanded use in the passing game would probably require unlikely deficits and the continued inability of Lamar Jackson to hook up with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews.

For deep league owners, Edwards trails Ingram by only 18 snaps and eight carries on the season. He’s been the more impressive runner and would have RB2 upside if anything happened to the starter.

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Shawn Siegele

Author of the original Zero RB article and 2013 NFFC Primetime Grand Champion. 11-time main event league winner. 2015, 2017, 2018 titles in MFL10 of Death.

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