The 3 and Out uses a number of RotoViz apps to uncover significant workload changes; league, team, and player-specific trends; and hidden but powerful statistics.
Welcome to the second 2020 edition of The 3 and Out! On a weekly basis, we’ll use the RotoViz tools, my weekly research, and some of my favorite resources to find key pieces of information relating to teams, players, and matchups. Specifically, I’ll highlight a key team, player, and upcoming opponent specific takeaway.
This week’s edition will look at the 16 teams we didn’t get to in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals
| PLAYER | GM | SNAP | SNAP/GM | TARGET | TARGET SHARE | RUSH ATT | RUSH SHARE | OPPS | OPPS SHARE | EP/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 6% | 35 | 67% | 41 | 28% | 15 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 23% | 0 | 0% | 22 | 15% | 18 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 20 | 10 | 12 | 13% | 2 | 4% | 14 | 10% | 9 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 55 | 28 | 13 | 14% | 0 | 0% | 13 | 9% | 11 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 49 | 25 | 11 | 12% | 0 | 0% | 11 | 8% | 11 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 11% | 0 | 0% | 10 | 7% | 10 |
| John Ross | 2 | 57 | 29 | 7 | 7% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 5% | 6 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 7% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 5% | 7 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 6% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 4% | 5 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 |
TEAM TAKEAWAY
Cincinnati has been one of the fastest-paced teams in 2020, averaging just 22.7 seconds per play. The team has recorded 166 offensive plays, passing on 66% of them. Unfortunately, the Bengals are winless and have been outscored by their opponents 51 to 43. Rookie quarterback Joe Burrow rose to the occasion on the national stage this past Thursday. He wasn’t able to lead his team to victory, but he did throw for three touchdowns and over 300 yards. He’s added 65 yards and one touchdown as a rusher. Unfortunately for Joe Mixon owners, Burrow leads the team in rushing touchdowns. Making matters worse for Mixon is the fact that he’s averaging 4.2 points below expectation per game and just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. He did get off to a slow start in 2019, but his odds of returning on a first-round ADP are dwindling.
PLAYER TAKEAWAY
A.J. Green has managed just 16 fantasy points this season despite being targeted a team-high 22 times for a league-leading 338 air yards. This workload provided Green with the eighth-most expected points of all wide receivers playing in Weeks 1 and 2, but he failed to make the most of them, converting only 36% of his targets. To be fair, and as highlighted by his gaudy air yards total, he’s been targeted at distances that often result in weaker reception percentages.
OPPONENT TAKEAWAY
If Mixon is going to validate his 2020 ADP, this could be the week he turns things around. His opponent, Philadelphia, has allowed an RB to score 15 points (or close enough) in each of its five most recent games.
Top RB Scorers vs. PHI by Week, Last 5 Games
| Player | Team | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | RecYd | RecTD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | WAS | 16 | 66 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 18.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 13 | 47 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 15.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 17 | 92 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 20.7 |
| Peyton Barber | WAS | 17 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.9 |
| Darrell Henderson | LAR | 12 | 81 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 20.1 |
| Average | 15 | 63 | 1 | 3 | 25.4 | 0 | 17.84 |
Cleveland Browns
| PLAYER | GM | SNAP | SNAP/GM | TARGET | TARGET SHARE | RUSH ATT | RUSH SHARE | OPPS | OPPS SHARE | EP/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 35 | 18 | 2 | 4% | 32 | 52% | 34 | 29% | 15 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 36 | 18 | 8 | 14% | 23 | 38% | 31 | 26% | 14 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 55 | 28 | 16 | 29% | 0 | 0% | 16 | 14% | 13 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 52 | 26 | 9 | 16% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 8% | 7 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 56 | 28 | 6 | 11% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 5% | 6 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 9% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 4% | 4 |
| Harrison Bryant | 2 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 7% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 3% | 3 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 9% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 5% | 7 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 16 | 16 | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% | 2 |
| Stephen Carlson | 1 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 2% | 1 |
TEAM TAKEAWAY
Cleveland bounced back against the Bengals after getting bludgeoned by Baltimore to open the season. The Browns have run 136 plays while averaging 25 seconds per snap and passing 51% of the time. In neutral game script, the team rushed on 54% of plays. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have been heavily involved in the team’s offense, with Chubb’s coming, on average, when the team is down by one point and Hunt’s when the team is down by seven and a half. Baker Mayfield completed just 54% of passes against the Ravens but improved against the Bengals with 70% of his attempts converting to receptions. In two games as a Brown, Austin Hooper has seen six targets, caught four for 37 yards, and failed to find the end zone. Hooper did draw three third-quarter targets when the Browns were ahead of the Bengals by a touchdown. Perhaps his output can increase if the Browns find themselves in more neutral game scripts.
PLAYER TAKEAWAY
Odell Beckham Jr. scored 17 points last week, but his tenure with the Browns has been disappointing when compared to the high hopes dynasty owners had for him upon his departure from New York. Eli Manning is often maligned, but he got much more out of Beckham than Mayfield has.
OPPONENT TAKEAWAY
Mayfield should remain hot against a Washington defense that has allowed opposing passers to pour on the points. The team’s defense has allowed QBs to pass for an average of 295 yards, three touchdowns, and 30 fantasy points in its last five games.
