Last season, Miles Sanders’ ADP fell throughout July, and he temporarily dropped behind Jordan Howard before launching again in the final run-up to the season. In 2018, Nick Chubb’s ADP fell consistently throughout draft season as it became clear that Carlos Hyde was going to begin the season as the starter. Chubb wasn’t even the second Cleveland running back selected, as drafters assumed the Browns would continue to deploy their ace receiving back, Duke Johnson.
These two RBs were our recommended plays, and each of them generated win rates above 14%.
It’s time to look at why the research pushed us in those directions and what it says for 2020.
Rookie RBs In Redraft
Last season, Dave Caban looked at the impact of rookies in redraft, and he found that rookie RBs, while more viable than WRs, still don’t hit as often as you might like. Updated with 2019 included, 32 rookie RBs have scored 160 or more points since 2008,[1] and 19 of those backs were selected in the first two rounds of the reality draft that summer.
On the other hand, perhaps rookies are most valuable when you need it the most. If rookies routinely emerge in the fantasy playoffs, they’ll carry teams to titles. If rookies score in late-season bunches, then they’ll be more valuable than players with similar full-season point totals.
Using the RotoViz Screener and pulling up all rookie seasons since 2008, we can quickly see that 15 RBs have scored 100 or more points in Weeks 12 through 17. Seven of those backs scored more points during those final six weeks than they had over the previous 11. This encouraging trend fits with Brian Malone’s argument that rookie RBs are key in the fantasy playoffs.
| PLAYER | TEAM | SEAS | Weeks 12-17 | Weeks 1-11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 2017 | 133.8 | 183.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 2018 | 133 | 252.8 |
| Alfred Morris | WAS | 2012 | 130.9 | 127.1 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 2015 | 123.7 | 88.1 |
| Eddie Lacy | GB | 2013 | 117.9 | 126.6 |
| Miles Sanders | PHI | 2019 | 113.9 | 106.8 |
| Steve Slaton | HOU | 2008 | 112 | 163.9 |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 2008 | 111.6 | 194.9 |
| Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 2013 | 110.2 | 109.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 2016 | 107.2 | 220.3 |
| Jordan Howard | CHI | 2016 | 107 | 125.2 |
| Doug Martin | TB | 2012 | 106.7 | 206.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 2017 | 105.4 | 191.8 |
| Jamaal Williams | GB | 2017 | 103.7 | 39.1 |
| Javorius Allen | BAL | 2015 | 100.4 | 48.5 |
| Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 2009 | 98.3 | 99.7 |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 2014 | 97.4 | 117.5 |
| Roy Helu | WAS | 2011 | 91.8 | 77.1 |
| Tashard Choice | DAL | 2008 | 90.3 | 8.4 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | 2018 | 89.8 | 104.5 |
Chubb was not one of those 100-point backs, but he posted an impressive 90 points over the final six weeks. Sanders was. His 113 points ranked sixth overall in this time frame. For Zero RB owners, Chubb and Sanders were just what the doctor ordered.
Of course, it’s not just how many points a rookie scores but how much those points cost. In Rookies are the Key to Fantasy Titles, But Not in the Way You Might Think, Blair Andrews provides the essential insight.
I investigated Clyde Edwards-Helaire yesterday – why he was a strong pick and how to profit from his two discount options – but at the very top we’re looking at only the rookie seasons from Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. We have more examples of rookie runners in the Round 3 to 6 range, and they’ve largely underperformed. This fits with the insights from FFPC guru Monty Phan, who warns us to be even more leery than usual of players like Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins.
Two Rookie RBs Poised to Win Leagues in 2020
Footnotes
| ↑1 | Roughly the back end of the RB2 tier. |
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