A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about the importance of wide receiver efficiency and found that we want to target efficient WRs who are going into their second or (to a lesser degree) third NFL season. This isn’t a new idea – Blair Andrews wrote about it last year in The Wrong Read No. 59 – but the extent to which efficient, inexperienced WRs outperform their inefficient counterparts remains shocking. As you can see in the chart below, the difference is especially glaring for rookie WRs.
Conveniently, the 2019 WR draft class had one of the best opening acts in history, and players like A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel are flying off the board early as a result. Because of that, this offseason is the perfect time to take advantage of how the public has historically undervalued rookie-year efficiency at WR. The 2018 WR class really came on last year too, with D.J. Moore establishing himself as a WR1 and other options like Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and D.J. Chark posting solid WR2 numbers. These performances are exactly what was needed to allow savvy fantasy owners to take full advantage of this market inefficiency.
Today, we’ll use the RotoViz Screener to identify 15 WRs who were in their first or second season in 2019 and posted positive receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (reFPOE). These are often the difference-making WRs whose breakout can win you your best ball leagues.
