The Best Rookie Running Back Landing Spots: Vacated RB Expected Points

Blair Andrews
April 23, 2020

The early portions of 2020 rookie drafts are expected to be filled with exciting running backs. But the outlooks for our favorite backs depend a lot on which teams draft them. One straightforward way to determine which landing spots are best is to look at which teams have the most available opportunity. In what follows, I’ll explore vacated RB expected points (EP) to find the best landing spots for the top 2020 RB prospects.

Several NFL teams made big moves in their backfields, trading for or signing stars. Others let their top RBs from last season walk in free agency, or used them to upgrade other positions in the trade market. Vacated EP evaluates these moves in terms of the number of 2019 expected points that moved from one team to another.

For example, when Arizona traded David Johnson to Houston, his 127 EP from 2019 move along with him. Arizona is now 127 EP “under budget,” as it were. They might choose to spend that surplus opportunity on a rookie RB, making any draftee an attractive fantasy asset. Houston, on the other hand, is now 127 EP over budget. Austerity measures are likely on the horizon, and they should consider a hiring freeze. Any RB that Houston drafts^[1]It is Bill O’Brien after all. may have a hard time carving out early opportunity.

Vacated RB Expected Points

The chart below shows the net vacated RB EP for every team after trades and free agent moves.

Membership Required

You must be a member to access this content.

View Membership Levels

Already a member? Log in here

Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	It is Bill O’Brien after all.

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

What’s included in your subscription??

Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
- A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
Revolutionary Tools
- Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
Groundbreaking Articles
- RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
Weekly Projections
- Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
Expert Rankings
And a whole lot more…

Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

Shane Waldron Wasn’t the Only Problem in Chicago, But Can a New Playcaller Unlock Caleb Williams? The Wrong Read, Week 11

Blair Andrews November 16, 2024

Welcome to The Wrong Read. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to try to understand how an upcoming matchup might play out in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be when trying to pass? How much will they be able to run the ball? It’s impossible to…...