The Bills and Vikings completed a blockbuster deal that sent 26-year-old star WR Stefon Diggs to the Bills for a package of picks. Diggs was rumored to have wanted out of Minnesota since the middle of last season, as the Vikings shifted to a run-centric offense. At first glance, the transition to Josh Allen and the Bills is far from a dream landing spot, especially considering that receivers often struggle after switching teams. However, as I detail below, Diggs offers a reasonably high floor, with the potential for an elite ceiling.
Stefon Diggs in 2019
Despite the absence of Adam Thielen, the Vikings’ shift to a run-centric offense limited Diggs’ opportunity in 2019. Diggs had only 95 targets, ranking 34th in the league.
However, the Weekly Stat Explorer indicates that Diggs operated as more of an alpha receiver than his raw target total would suggest.
| Player | Tgt | Tgt Shr | Yards | Yd/Tgt | AirYards | AirYards Share |
| Stefon Diggs | 93 | 22% | 1129 | 12.1 | 1412 | 55% |
| Terry McLaurin | 93 | 23% | 919 | 9.9 | 1304 | 47% |
| Courtland Sutton | 126 | 26% | 1112 | 8.8 | 1407 | 43% |
| Michael Thomas | 186 | 33% | 1725 | 9.3 | 1489 | 41% |
| John Brown | 115 | 26% | 1060 | 9.2 | 1644 | 40% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 133 | 26% | 1035 | 7.8 | 1678 | 40% |
| Tyreek Hill | 88 | 22% | 860 | 9.8 | 1188 | 39% |
| Allen Robinson | 153 | 27% | 1147 | 7.5 | 1658 | 38% |
| Julio Jones | 156 | 26% | 1394 | 8.9 | 1908 | 38% |
Despite his low target total and 22% target share, Diggs led the entire NFL in team Air Yards Share at 55%, higher than notable target hog Michael Thomas. Furthermore, Diggs was hyper-efficient on his limited opportunities, as noted by his 12.1 yards per target mark. The Pass Location tool within the NFL Stat Explorer details how Diggs managed this.
Diggs operated as an elite deep threat, catching 17 of 30 deep targets for 657 yards and five touchdowns. This equated to 112.7 PPR points, 53% of his 2019 total. His 2.23 PPR points per target put him in Dave Caban’s regression danger zone. However, Diggs was in the regression danger zone in Dave’s initial article and has now joined the following list of wide receivers to complete the feat at least twice: Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, and Jermaine Kearse. If there is a group of wide receivers capable of avoiding regression, this list is a good place to start. Perhaps more significantly, Diggs will likely see an increase in volume and has already proven to be more than just an elite deep threat.
