With the 12th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders selected Henry Ruggs III and got the wide receiver ball rolling. In total, six WRs were drafted.
Since 2010, 32 WRs have been drafted in Round 1. Of these 32 pass catchers, 43% (14) managed to score more than 10 points per game (PPG) in their rookie season. This group averaged 13.8 games played, 103 targets, 865 yards, 7 touchdowns, a target share of 18 percent, and 13.8 PPG. This gives us an idea of what we can reasonably expect from a successful rookie campaign.
| PLAYER | SEAS | Games | Targets | Recs | Yards | TDS | RecMS | PPR | PPR/GM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2014 | 12 | 130 | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 0.22 | 297 | 24.8 |
| Julio Jones | 2011 | 12 | 95 | 54 | 959 | 8 | 0.16 | 204 | 17 |
| Mike Evans | 2014 | 15 | 123 | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 0.24 | 245 | 16.3 |
| A.J. Green | 2011 | 15 | 115 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 0.22 | 218 | 14.5 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2014 | 16 | 145 | 73 | 1008 | 9 | 0.27 | 228 | 14.2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2014 | 10 | 69 | 53 | 550 | 3 | 0.11 | 139 | 13.9 |
| Amari Cooper | 2015 | 16 | 130 | 72 | 1082 | 6 | 0.22 | 216 | 13.5 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 16 | 92 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 0.15 | 209 | 13.1 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2014 | 16 | 128 | 65 | 982 | 6 | 0.22 | 200 | 12.5 |
| DeVante Parker | 2015 | 8 | 50 | 26 | 494 | 3 | 0.09 | 93 | 11.7 |
| Justin Blackmon | 2012 | 16 | 132 | 64 | 865 | 5 | 0.23 | 185 | 11.6 |
| Dez Bryant | 2010 | 12 | 73 | 45 | 561 | 6 | 0.13 | 137 | 11.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 2019 | 14 | 71 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 0.17 | 146 | 10.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 2018 | 16 | 82 | 55 | 788 | 2 | 0.15 | 160 | 10 |
| Kendall Wright | 2012 | 15 | 103 | 63 | 612 | 4 | 0.19 | 149 | 9.9 |
| Tavon Austin | 2013 | 13 | 69 | 40 | 418 | 4 | 0.14 | 127 | 9.8 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2013 | 16 | 77 | 45 | 469 | 4 | 0.14 | 150 | 9.4 |
| Corey Coleman | 2016 | 10 | 73 | 33 | 413 | 3 | 0.13 | 93 | 9.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2013 | 16 | 91 | 52 | 802 | 2 | 0.15 | 144 | 9 |
| Will Fuller | 2016 | 14 | 92 | 47 | 630 | 2 | 0.16 | 122 | 8.7 |
| Michael Floyd | 2012 | 15 | 86 | 45 | 562 | 2 | 0.14 | 113 | 7.5 |
| Corey Davis | 2017 | 11 | 65 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 0.13 | 72 | 6.5 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2010 | 10 | 39 | 22 | 283 | 2 | 0.07 | 62 | 6.2 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2019 | 7 | 24 | 12 | 105 | 2 | 0.04 | 39 | 5.6 |
| Jon Baldwin | 2011 | 11 | 53 | 21 | 254 | 1 | 0.11 | 52 | 4.8 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2015 | 13 | 44 | 23 | 279 | 1 | 0.07 | 57 | 4.4 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2015 | 11 | 39 | 18 | 225 | 1 | 0.06 | 48 | 4.4 |
| Josh Doctson | 2016 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0.01 | 9 | 4.3 |
| Mike Williams | 2017 | 9 | 23 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 21 | 2.3 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2016 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0.01 | 3 | 1.3 |
| John Ross | 2017 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.4 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 2012 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
As you can see, there exists a strong relationship between receiving market share and PPG. Of course, a player’s talent level and NFL ability are likely major factors in his utilization and this does seem to be supported within the listing. However, if there’s an argument supporting the notion that Kelvin Benjamin is a better receiver or more talented than and DeAndre Hopkins or Demaryius Thomas, I’ve yet to think of it. Benjamin benefited massively from a target share of 27%. In 2014, the Panthers only other WR drawing more than 40 targets was Jericho Cotchery. Greg Olsen did see 123 targets, but the team didn’t have a pass-catching RB and lacked significant options outside of the previously mentioned players.
In short, if a rookie WR is going to make an immediate impact, the odds are high that he’ll be doing so in an offense lacking an established WR corps. Let’s take a look at the situations in which the 2020 class of Round 1 WRs finds themselves.
