The Tour is heading South of the border for the World Golf Championship – Mexico Championship. This is a no-cut event with a very small field. At the moment, we have just over 70 committed golfers. Ownership in weeks like this is relatively flat, and it’s very difficult to get a guy at low ownership that’s worth playing. With that being said, we need to be even sharper with our decision making if we’re going to have an edge this week.^[1]There’s no Expected Birdies piece this week, unfortunately, since something happened with the code that I’ve yet to fix.

Buy or Sell

Dustin Johnson ($11,000) is one of the more talked about golfers heading into the week. He also comes into the week with the second-highest price. DJ will surely need a top-five finish in order to pay off his salary and ownership combination. The simulator only gives him the ninth-best chance at a top-five finish in the entire field. He’s coming off of a top 10 in a stronger, larger field. Matching the field’s ownership or being slightly underweight is the stance I’m taking on him, so we’ll call it a soft sell. 

Over/Under

Scottie Scheffler ($7,100) – o/u 27.5

Scheffler got into the field thanks to the reshuffle in the OWGR. He’s now climbed up to 51st in the world. Scheffler seemed to lose his way a bit at the Waste Management and Farmers, but he took a couple of weeks off and came back at the Genesis Invitational to finish in the top 30. Scheffler lost strokes in at least two Strokes Gained categories during his pair of missed cuts, but gained strokes everywhere last week. The simulator puts him in the top 20 more often than not, so I will take the under on him this week. 

Mid-Range Matchup

Paul Casey ($8,700) vs. Collin Morikawa ($8,500)

Getting the $8,000 range correct is always important in WGC fields. More balanced lineups typically have a better chance at being unique in these events because of people’s desire to jam in the studs. The PRK model has the youngster with the edge, as well. Since the PRK feeds into the simulator, the sim results go heavily towards Morikawa’s side. He has more than twice the win equity, T5 equity, and T20 equity as Casey. 

*The heatmap is just a color-coded representation of their form relative to the field during each time frame. Golfers that are brighter green as you go further to the left (more recent) are trending in the right direction.

Cash Locks

• Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200)
• Carlos Ortiz ($6,600)

So far this year, the cash locks are 12/14 made cuts and 7/14 have finished inside of the Top 25.

Image Credit: Ben Warden/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Dustin Johnson.