We have a three-course rotation for the first time this PGA DFS season. The American Express is played on La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course.[1] Each of the golfers in the field will get a crack at each course before playing the Stadium Course for a second time in the final round. That means 54 holes from each guy that you roster even if they go on to miss the cut.
Three’s A Crowd …
La Quinta Country Club was the easiest course on the PGA Tour schedule last season. It’s a par 72 that plays about 7,060 yards. It’s the only course over the past two seasons that has allowed an average of 5-plus birdies or better per round for each golfer.
The Nicklaus Tournament Course isn’t far behind. It has been the second easiest course on tour each of the last two seasons. The Nicklaus Course is a par 72 as well but plays about 100 yards longer at 7,159 yards on the scorecard. That 100-yard difference doesn’t make it any more difficult, though, as the field has averaged 4.9 birdies or better per round.
Lastly, the Stadium Course is a par 72 that is just 7,113 yards. It’s not a tough course, by any stretch of the imagination. In 2019, the Stadium Course played 1.2 strokes more difficult than the Nicklaus course and 1.5 strokes tougher than La Quinta CC. As you can see from our Splits App, this tournament provides more scoring opportunities than the average track.
Introducing Expected Birdies
I wrote about the thought process behind proximity predictions last week. Now we’re going to put them into a more actionable format. Over this past weekend, I discussed the idea of Expected Birdies with RV alum Anthony Amico and he helped me get it off the ground. This week’s field has Version 1.0 in the table below. I included the total number of holes as a way to gauge how confident you should be in each projection, but more on that in a bit.
| Name | Salary | Expected Birdies | Predicted - <125 | Birdie or Better (<125) | Predicted - 125 to 150 | Birdie or Better (125 to 150) | Predicted - 150 to 175 | Birdie or Better (150 to 175) | Predicted - 175 to 200 | Birdie or Better (175 to 200) | Predicted - 200+ | Birdie or Better (200+) | Total Holes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | 11500 | 2.98 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.33 | 11482 |
| Sungjae Im | 11000 | 3.13 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 0.17 | 6 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.36 | 2072 |
| Paul Casey | 10700 | 3.00 | 5 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.31 | 6925 |
| Tony Finau | 10500 | 2.78 | 6 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.37 | 7314 |
| Byeong Hun An | 10300 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 3622 |
| Charles Howell III | 10100 | 2.70 | 5 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 15094 |
| Kevin Kisner | 9900 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.29 | 10162 |
| Billy Horschel | 9700 | 2.74 | 5 | 0.23 | 2 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.32 | 11066 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 9500 | 3.42 | 5 | 0.27 | 4 | 0.27 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.3 | 338 |
| Cameron Champ | 9300 | 2.72 | 6 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.18 | 2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.35 | 1537 |
| Francesco Molinari | 9200 | 2.85 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 0.15 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.27 | 4685 |
| Jason Kokrak | 9100 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.34 | 10884 |
| Matthew Wolff | 9000 | 2.87 | 5 | 0.19 | 4 | 0.12 | 3 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 0.5 | 140 |
| Abraham Ancer | 8900 | 2.75 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.32 | 3572 |
| Brendon Todd | 8800 | 2.50 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 5479 |
| Phil Mickelson | 8700 | 3.04 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.35 | 10535 |
| Brian Harman | 8600 | 2.67 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.3 | 12210 |
| J.T. Poston | 8500 | 2.86 | 5 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.19 | 4 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.32 | 4157 |
| Alex Noren | 8400 | 2.49 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.15 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.33 | 1765 |
| Ryan Moore | 8300 | 2.87 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 0.22 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.29 | 11564 |
| Lucas Glover | 8200 | 2.71 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.34 | 10337 |
| Russell Knox | 8100 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.27 | 8857 |
| Chez Reavie | 8000 | 2.77 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.27 | 10125 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 7900 | 2.80 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 10237 |
| Andrew Putnam | 7800 | 2.86 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 0.21 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.28 | 3485 |
| Kevin Na | 7800 | 2.79 | 5 | 0.24 | 0 | 0.23 | 6 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.29 | 11102 |
| Zach Johnson | 7700 | 2.91 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 0.21 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.28 | 12783 |
| Harris English | 7700 | 2.71 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.33 | 11417 |
| Denny McCarthy | 7600 | 2.93 | 5 | 0.25 | 2 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.38 | 2443 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 7600 | 2.81 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.32 | 11713 |
| Daniel Berger | 7500 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.21 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 6406 |
| Brendan Steele | 7500 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 11235 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 7400 | 3.07 | 5 | 0.26 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.36 | 2313 |
| Scott Piercy | 7400 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.31 | 11460 |
| Aaron Wise | 7300 | 2.97 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.36 | 2548 |
| Danny Lee | 7300 | 2.82 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.31 | 9390 |
| Bud Cauley | 7300 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.33 | 7264 |
| Nate Lashley | 7200 | 2.70 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.33 | 1927 |
| Joel Dahmen | 7200 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.21 | 6 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.34 | 2894 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 7200 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.34 | 4253 |
| Adam Long | 7200 | 2.47 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.12 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.29 | 1586 |
| Austin Cook | 7100 | 2.70 | 5 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.34 | 2889 |
| Talor Gooch | 7100 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.21 | 3 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.31 | 2326 |
| Henrik Norlander | 7100 | 2.61 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.15 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.33 | 2341 |
| Cameron Tringale | 7100 | 2.58 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.3 | 13002 |
| Brian Stuard | 7100 | 2.52 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.25 | 10776 |
| Ryan Armour | 7000 | 2.83 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.18 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.25 | 4204 |
| Harold Varner III | 7000 | 2.72 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.34 | 5807 |
| Kyle Stanley | 7000 | 2.67 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 10622 |
| Brian Gay | 7000 | 2.63 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.21 | 6 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.23 | 11090 |
| Nick Taylor | 7000 | 2.60 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.17 | 6 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.32 | 7351 |
| Si Woo Kim | 7000 | 2.55 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.16 | 5 | 0.13 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 5494 |
| Harry Higgs | 6900 | 2.97 | 5 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.32 | 376 |
| Wyndham Clark | 6900 | 2.88 | 6 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.41 | 1402 |
| Cameron Davis | 6900 | 2.79 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.34 | 1287 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | 6900 | 2.72 | 6 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.12 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.32 | 107 |
| Kevin Streelman | 6900 | 2.58 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 13097 |
| Brice Garnett | 6900 | 2.50 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.3 | 5453 |
| Doc Redman | 6800 | 3.32 | 5 | 0.35 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.3 | 412 |
| Russell Henley | 6800 | 2.86 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.3 | 8945 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 6800 | 2.70 | 5 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.33 | 3353 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 6800 | 2.60 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.33 | 9992 |
| Richy Werenski | 6800 | 2.52 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.32 | 3897 |
| Tyler Duncan | 6800 | 2.38 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.11 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.31 | 2948 |
| Bo Hoag | 6800 | 2.11 | 5 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.12 | 6 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 450 |
| Nick Watney | 6700 | 2.90 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 11526 |
| Stewart Cink | 6700 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.19 | 4 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.29 | 10257 |
| Hudson Swafford | 6700 | 2.82 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 7356 |
| Kevin Chappell | 6700 | 2.76 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 10450 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 6700 | 2.60 | 5 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.36 | 338 |
| D.J. Trahan | 6700 | 2.56 | 5 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.32 | 5048 |
| Bill Haas | 6700 | 2.52 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.3 | 12688 |
| Jimmy Walker | 6600 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 12541 |
| Beau Hossler | 6600 | 2.87 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.33 | 3081 |
| Charley Hoffman | 6600 | 2.85 | 5 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.34 | 13262 |
| Patton Kizzire | 6600 | 2.77 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.31 | 5254 |
| Peter Malnati | 6600 | 2.72 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.28 | 5658 |
| Michael Thompson | 6600 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.3 | 9978 |
| Scott Stallings | 6600 | 2.59 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 10890 |
| Max Homa | 6600 | 2.52 | 5 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.15 | 4 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 2522 |
| Sam Ryder | 6500 | 3.12 | 5 | 0.28 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.34 | 2695 |
| Scott Harrington | 6500 | 2.89 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.39 | 374 |
| Tom Hoge | 6500 | 2.80 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.3 | 6041 |
| Andrew Landry | 6500 | 2.77 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.27 | 3311 |
| Jason Dufner | 6500 | 2.76 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.29 | 11116 |
| Greg Chalmers | 6500 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.25 | 9455 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 6500 | 2.62 | 5 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 5781 |
| Roger Sloan | 6500 | 2.51 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.21 | 6 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.32 | 2179 |
| Kramer Hickok | 6500 | 2.45 | 5 | 0.19 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.31 | 1356 |
| Steve Stricker | 6400 | 2.93 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.26 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.31 | 4348 |
| Xinjun Zhang | 6400 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 1392 |
| Adam Schenk | 6400 | 2.82 | 5 | 0.24 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.33 | 2916 |
| Martin Laird | 6400 | 2.72 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.34 | 11977 |
| Luke List | 6400 | 2.71 | 6 | 0.21 | 3 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.37 | 6302 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6400 | 2.67 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.32 | 11297 |
| Cameron Percy | 6400 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.31 | 5129 |
| Fabian Gomez | 6400 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 8139 |
| Troy Merritt | 6400 | 2.62 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.3 | 9751 |
| Rob Oppenheim | 6400 | 2.48 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.13 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.24 | 2286 |
| Chase Seiffert | 6300 | 2.98 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.35 | 305 |
| Chesson Hadley | 6300 | 2.81 | 5 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.19 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.32 | 6985 |
| Ben Martin | 6300 | 2.80 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.3 | 7522 |
| Grayson Murray | 6300 | 2.77 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.37 | 2743 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6300 | 2.71 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 4411 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 6300 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 7501 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 6300 | 2.66 | 5 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.16 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.33 | 4385 |
| David Hearn | 6300 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.24 | 0 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.26 | 11819 |
| Josh Teater | 6300 | 2.61 | 5 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.34 | 8292 |
| John Huh | 6300 | 2.58 | 5 | 0.21 | 0 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.17 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.27 | 10156 |
| Zac Blair | 6300 | 2.56 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.24 | 5636 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 6300 | 2.39 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.11 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.32 | 1344 |
| Maverick McNealy | 6200 | 3.30 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.45 | 337 |
| Hank Lebioda | 6200 | 3.15 | 5 | 0.28 | 3 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.31 | 1343 |
| Sepp Straka | 6200 | 3.09 | 5 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.34 | 1344 |
| Robby Shelton | 6200 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.28 | 1 | 0.21 | 5 | 0.12 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.3 | 374 |
| Brandon Hagy | 6200 | 2.66 | 6 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.17 | 3 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.37 | 1479 |
| Chris Stroud | 6200 | 2.65 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.28 | 12188 |
| Scott Brown | 6200 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.29 | 10460 |
| James Hahn | 6200 | 2.60 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.31 | 8024 |
| Tim Wilkinson | 6200 | 2.51 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.13 | 2 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.24 | 4219 |
| Wes Roach | 6200 | 2.50 | 5 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 6 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.32 | 2734 |
| Mark Anderson | 6200 | 2.44 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 2185 |
| Doug Ghim | 6200 | 2.18 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.25 | 5 | 0.04 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.22 | 232 |
| Tyler McCumber | 6100 | 2.84 | 6 | 0.22 | 3 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.3 | 339 |
| Matt Every | 6100 | 2.74 | 5 | 0.24 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.3 | 8062 |
| Hunter Mahan | 6100 | 2.74 | 5 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.3 | 11062 |
| Sam Burns | 6100 | 2.71 | 5 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.19 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.33 | 1426 |
| Rhein Gibson | 6100 | 2.64 | 5 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.29 | 1164 |
| Ricky Barnes | 6100 | 2.63 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 11674 |
| Michael Gellerman | 6100 | 2.62 | 5 | 0.18 | 3 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.28 | 305 |
| Isaiah Salinda | 6100 | 2.60 | 6 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.13 | 3 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 142 |
| Robert Streb | 6100 | 2.59 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.18 | 6 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.3 | 9103 |
| Ben Crane | 6100 | 2.59 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.15 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.25 | 10140 |
| Ryan Brehm | 6100 | 2.56 | 6 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.12 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.33 | 1461 |
| Joseph Bramlett | 6100 | 2.54 | 5 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.2 | 3 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.31 | 1363 |
| Mark Hubbard | 6100 | 2.50 | 5 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.16 | 6 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 4069 |
| Sebastian Cappelen | 6100 | 2.20 | 5 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.11 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 267 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 6000 | 3.04 | 5 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.3 | 265 |
| Ben Taylor | 6000 | 2.88 | 5 | 0.27 | 3 | 0.16 | 4 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 0.26 | 303 |
| Sam Saunders | 6000 | 2.83 | 5 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.34 | 5507 |
| Vince Covello | 6000 | 2.80 | 5 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 0.03 | 1 | 0.39 | 233 |
| J.J. Spaun | 6000 | 2.69 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.3 | 4028 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 6000 | 2.68 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.33 | 7509 |
| Kevin Stadler | 6000 | 2.61 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.16 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.3 | 6345 |
| John Senden | 6000 | 2.59 | 5 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.19 | 5 | 0.14 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 0.3 | 9084 |
| Michael Gligic | 6000 | 2.56 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.16 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.25 | 269 |
| Rafael Campos | 6000 | 2.56 | 5 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.09 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.31 | 302 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 6000 | 2.53 | 5 | 0.21 | 4 | 0.24 | 3 | 0.04 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.25 | 125 |
| Mark Wilson | 6000 | 2.33 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | 6 | 0.13 | 2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 8233 |
| Nelson Ledesma | 6000 | 2.32 | 5 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.11 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 0.29 | 266 |
| Martin Trainer | 6000 | 2.16 | 5 | 0.17 | 4 | 0.15 | 3 | 0.09 | 1 | 0.09 | 1 | 0.31 | 1170 |
| Vincent Whaley | 6000 | 2.09 | 5 | 0.18 | 4 | 0.13 | 3 | 0.06 | 1 | 0.07 | 1 | 0.44 | 232 |
| Chris Baker | 6000 | 1.61 | 5 | 0.13 | 1 | 0.1 | 5 | 0.11 | 2 | 0.06 | 1 | 0.19 | 198 |
Standouts
The outliers seem like Scottie Scheffler ($9,500), Doc Redman ($6,800), and Maverick McNealy ($6,200). To be totally frank, we don’t know nearly enough about this trio to feel confident in the sample and, therefore, the prediction. They may be worth a GPP flier because of these numbers but they won’t be gracing the cash lock section just yet.
In the top tier, Sungjae Im ($11,000) has the highest expected birdie count. We have plenty of reason to be confident in him. If not for a boneheaded triple-bogey on Sunday, Im would’ve been in the top 10 at the Sony Open.
Sebastian Munoz ($7,400) is at a very reasonable price this week and this course seems to fit what he does well. He’s joined by Scott Piercy ($7,400) and Denny McCarthy ($7,600) in the mid-$7,000 range with a seemingly high upside.
If you’re going bargain hunting with this metric, Sam Ryder ($6,500) seems like an interesting target. He’s one of just a couple of golfers under $7,000 with more than three expected birdies per round combined with reasonable sample size.
Image Credit: Speed Media/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Sungjae Im.
Footnotes
| ↑1 | twice |
|---|
