Sony Open Proximity Predictions – PGA DFS

Matt Jones
January 7, 2020

Our PGA DFS season is continuing with the Sony Open in Waialae Country Club. Waialae is a Par 70 that plays a bit over 7,000 yards. If you’re interested in the typical course preview, you can check out last year’s version but we’re switching it up this year.

One of the ways we (attempt to) identify who’s going to do well at a given course is by looking at the proximity of approach shots at that course. We check “how the course plays” by looking at historical examples of where those approach shots come from and we try and identify golfers with a good fit based on that. Those numbers, though, assume that every golfer in the field is seeing the same distribution of approach distances.

Why Do We Care?

The methodology for figuring this out is reasonably simple. I took every golfer that has teed it up on the PGA Tour over the last 10 years and looked at their driving stats. That information went into a simulator and took a sampling of 150 predicted drives for each hole and found the average approach shot that a golfer would face given that driving distance.^[1]This isn’t an absolutely perfect representation, but it gets us very close to the actual results from prior years.

As you can see in the graph, there’s a spike around 125-140 and then a larger spike of shots coming from 175-200. If we just assume that distribution for every golfer on Tour, we’re obviously going to be wrong. The type of approach shots Colt Knost^[2]one of the shortest hitters on Tour will see compared to Rory McIlroy^[3]not one of the shortest aren’t comparable. Anyone who’s ever watched or played golf understands this, but for some reason, people choose to ignore these differences.

Proximity Predictions

This section will certainly evolve as the season goes on. I figured I’d give you guys access to how I’m looking at the stats so you can do your own digging. The table below has “Predicted” columns for different distances. The “Birdie or Better” columns tell you the percent of the time that a golfer cards a birdie or better from a particular distance. These are just estimates but should give you a better feel for where these shots are coming from and which golfer is likely to see shots that go along with their strengths or weaknesses.

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Name	Salary	Predicted - <125	Birdie or Better (<125)	Predicted - 125 to 150	Birdie or Better (125-150)	Predicted - 150 to 175	Birdie or Better (150 to 175)	Predicted - 175 to 200	Birdie or Better (175 to 200)	Predicted - 200+	Birdie or Better (200+)
Justin Thomas	12000	5	26%	3	22%	4	21%	3	23%	1	41%
Webb Simpson	11100	2	22%	5	22%	2	18%	6	13%	1	37%
Patrick Reed	10800	3	24%	4	25%	3	14%	5	15%	1	32%
Hideki Matsuyama	10500	4	26%	3	26%	3	18%	5	16%	1	35%
Collin Morikawa	10300	4	37%	3	14%	3	9%	5	30%	1	39%
Matt Kuchar	9900	2	28%	4	19%	3	16%	6	13%	1	30%
Sungjae Im	9600	3	26%	4	17%	3	18%	5	16%	1	36%
Joaquin Niemann	9400	5	24%	3	20%	3	15%	4	12%	1	33%
Marc Leishman	9200	4	20%	3	14%	3	19%	5	20%	1	31%
Charles Howell III	9100	5	22%	2	20%	4	17%	4	17%	1	32%
Abraham Ancer	9000	2	23%	5	18%	2	17%	6	12%	1	34%
Corey Conners	8900	5	26%	2	22%	3	16%	5	15%	1	30%
Alex Noren	8800	5	22%	2	15%	3	11%	5	9%	1	35%
Kevin Kisner	8700	2	24%	4	24%	3	14%	6	10%	1	28%
Brandt Snedeker	8600	2	26%	4	22%	3	18%	6	11%	1	29%
Cameron Smith	8500	2	24%	5	18%	2	19%	6	14%	1	30%
Chez Reavie	8400	2	26%	4	20%	3	19%	6	14%	1	29%
Brendon Todd	8300	2	23%	3	18%	2	15%	7	5%	2	27%
Brian Harman	8200	2	21%	4	19%	3	16%	6	12%	1	33%
J.T. Poston	8100	3	28%	4	20%	3	16%	5	15%	1	32%
Andrew Putnam	8000	2	29%	4	23%	3	20%	6	13%	1	31%
Sebastian Munoz	7900	5	25%	2	20%	3	14%	5	17%	1	39%
Brian Stuard	7900	2	26%	3	24%	2	17%	7	10%	2	27%
Aaron Wise	7800	5	24%	2	16%	4	13%	4	24%	1	38%
Russell Knox	7800	2	25%	4	17%	3	18%	6	7%	1	30%
Carlos Ortiz	7700	5	22%	2	15%	3	14%	5	11%	1	34%
Dylan Frittelli	7700	4	27%	3	16%	3	15%	5	11%	1	32%
Rory Sabbatini	7600	3	26%	4	24%	2	14%	6	15%	1	33%
Emiliano Grillo	7600	3	27%	4	16%	3	17%	5	12%	1	32%
Ryan Palmer	7500	5	28%	2	27%	4	15%	4	16%	1	30%
Lanto Griffin	7500	5	25%	3	20%	3	14%	4	19%	1	40%
Kevin Na	7500	2	25%	4	25%	2	13%	7	11%	1	30%
Zach Johnson	7400	2	28%	4	18%	2	12%	7	14%	1	27%
Pat Perez	7400	2	32%	4	18%	3	20%	6	11%	1	25%
Vaughn Taylor	7400	2	29%	4	23%	3	16%	6	14%	1	32%
Daniel Berger	7300	5	19%	2	20%	3	17%	5	10%	1	35%
Shugo Imahira	7300	3	NA	4	NA	3	NA	5	NA	1	NA
Brian Gay	7200	2	28%	3	17%	2	16%	7	8%	2	27%
Matt Jones	7200	4	24%	3	17%	3	12%	5	14%	1	36%
Keegan Bradley	7200	5	19%	2	20%	3	16%	5	17%	1	30%
Scott Piercy	7100	3	22%	4	19%	3	15%	5	15%	1	32%
Joel Dahmen	7100	3	21%	4	22%	3	15%	5	15%	1	34%
Russell Henley	7100	3	27%	4	20%	3	16%	5	13%	1	26%
Kyle Stanley	7000	3	27%	4	21%	2	15%	6	8%	1	31%
Ryan Armour	7000	2	25%	4	24%	1	17%	8	11%	1	25%
Bud Cauley	6900	4	26%	3	18%	3	14%	5	13%	1	38%
Brice Garnett	6900	2	22%	5	20%	2	16%	6	8%	1	31%
Fabian Gomez	6900	2	23%	4	22%	3	15%	6	11%	1	31%
Sung Kang	6900	3	23%	4	20%	3	13%	5	14%	1	34%
Patton Kizzire	6900	3	19%	4	19%	3	16%	5	14%	1	33%

Showing 1 to 50 of 139 entries

Image Credit: Dannie Walls/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama.

Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	This isn’t an absolutely perfect representation, but it gets us very close to the actual results from prior years.
↑2	one of the shortest hitters on Tour
↑3	not one of the shortest

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