Putting 2019 in Context: It Was a Really Weird Year for Late-Round Running Backs and Wide Receivers

Jack Miller
January 20, 2020

In the first two parts of this series, we looked at running backs and wide receivers picked in Rounds 3-6 of best ball drafts in 2019 and talked about what your strategy should be in those rounds in 2020. Today, we’re going to do the same thing for RBs and WRs drafted in Round 10 or later.

How did late-round RBs do in 2019?

Not good.

Kind of.

RBs drafted in Round 10 or later this year had an average win rate of 7.2%, whereas the 2015-18 average was 7.8%. Scoring was down 20.0%.

However, the 2019 median (7.4%) was actually higher than the 2015-18 median (7.2%). Best ball win rates usually have a positive skew, which means the average is normally higher than the median because of a few guys who post extraordinarily high win rates. Those guys are your difference-makers; James Conner and Alvin Kamara are two recent examples. The histogram below shows the frequency of different win rate groups from 2015-18.

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Jack Miller

Mind the Gap: Relative ADP at Running Back and the Psychology of Overconfidence

Jack Miller May 24, 2021

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Strength in Numbers: Endgame, or a List of 5 Things That Matter for 2021

Jack Miller December 30, 2020

Welcome back to Strength in Numbers, a weekly article in which we go over the most actionable takeaways from every NFL weekend in a concise, numbers-heavy format. We did it. We have reached the end. Alvin Kamara had one of the greatest fantasy performances of all time in Week 16, scoring six touchdowns in a blowout win over Minnesota. It could’ve been seven too, if not for…...

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Strength in Numbers: Jalen Hurts Is the King of Everything and 7 Other Things That Matter From Week 15

Jack Miller December 22, 2020

Welcome back to Strength in Numbers, a weekly article in which we go over the most actionable takeaways from every NFL weekend in a concise, numbers-heavy format. We have entered championship week. It’s time for you to lock in. Make sure everyone in your team’s locker room is feeling good going into what is surely the most important week of their lives. We’re judged by the…...