We’re back again this week and heading to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. The scoring won’t be quite as easy this week as we have a number of changes compared to La Quinta and The American Express. You can check out the Expected Birdies for this week which also has a link to last year’s course preview if you want a deeper dive into specific stats for the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Scoring Breakdown

Buy or Sell

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is confirmed good at golf. McIlroy’s raw score of -2.28 puts him in elite company and he has a perfect 100 PRK score relative to the field. Golfers with a score of 80 or higher have accounted for 42% of the wins on tour despite only making up 10% of the total golfers making starts. McIlroy also happens to be ninth in Expected Birdies this week. His 38% Birdie or Better Percentage from 200-Plus Yards is one of the top marks in the field. McIlroy’s a buy because of his win equity, but you’ll need to do some dumpster diving to afford him.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900) is shaping up as one of the highest owned golfers of the week. His price tag is very palatable. Matsuyama is seventh in PRK with an 85 and 13th in expected birdies. He’s nothing if he’s not consistent. Matsuyama gained strokes everywhere but the greens at The American Express last week. Seven of his past eight starts have resulted in a 16th place finish or better. Depending on how much chalk you’re willing to eat in your lineup he’s a buy, but there’s a strong game theory case to be made for a fade if his ownership hits the stratosphere. 

Over/Under

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention at least one of the Over/Unders we did on Bogey Free this week. We set Rickie Fowler’s ($9,700) finishing position at 15.5. I took the under for a couple of reasons. He has an 88 from the PRK model this week, for one. That puts him in very solid company, historically. Golfers in that group finish in the top 10 25% of the time and in the Top 20 39% of the time. He’s coming off of a T10 finish last week and has been in solid form over the past year. Fowler has made all but two cuts in the 20 events since his last start here. 

Mid-Range Matchups

Matchup No. 1: Collin Morikawa ($8,900) vs. Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)

As far as the PRK Model is concerned, this couldn’t be much closer. Morikawa comes in with an 87 in PRK this week. Scheffler? Also an 87. Expected Birdies has this as a razor-thin matchup, as well. Morikawa is second in Expected Birdies (4.06) compared to Scheffler who’s fourth (3.86). With such a tight matchup, I’m going to lean on our Splits App. We’re dealing in small samples with both of these golfers, but Morikawa has averaged over two more strokes gained tee-to-green on courses longer than 7,400 yards. 

Matchup No. 2: Harris English ($7,400) vs. Keegan Bradley ($7,300)

These two golfers are both being talked about quite a bit throughout the industry. They will each likely soak up a fair bit of ownership in their own right, so it’s important to figure out who’s going to finish higher this week. English has a significant advantage in PRK. He comes in just under 83. Bradley, on the other hand, comes in with a PRK Score of 64. He’s going to have to overcome some pretty rough historical trends if he wants to take down English. Golfers in Bradley’s group have finished in the top 20 about a quarter of the time compared to those in English’s group who have hit that mark nearly 40% of the time. 

GPP Play

As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, Maverick McNealy ($6,600) pops up in the Expected Birdies metric once again. He has undeniable DK scoring upside even if his finish position doesn’t always reflect it. McNealy is 29th in DK scoring over the past 50 rounds despite only having one top 20 finish in that timeframe. 

Cash Locks

• Collin Morikawa ($8,900)
• Cameron Tringale ($7,100)

Here’s the rundown of cash locks to date in 2020:

Farmers Insurance Open - Model & Ownership Results

Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.