PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

Matt Jones
January 21, 2020

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get one crack at the North course before the weekend, which is significantly shorter — and easier. Each golfer that makes the cut will also get three cracks at the South course. If you want to see an in-depth breakdown of the courses, check out last year’s preview article.

Expected Birdies

Name	Salary	Expected Birdies	Predicted - <125	Birdie or Better (<125)	Predicted - 125 to 150	Birdie or Better (125 to 150)	Predicted - 150 to 175	Birdie or Better (150 to 175)	Predicted - 175 to 200	Birdie or Better (175 to 200)	Predicted - 200+	Birdie or Better (200+)	Total Holes
Rory McIlroy	11600	3.64	5	0.23	2	0.22	2	0.17	1	0.17	4	0.38	6429
Jon Rahm	11300	3.65	5	0.26	1	0.19	2	0.14	2	0.17	4	0.39	3029
Tiger Woods	10800	3.63	5	0.28	1	0.24	1	0.19	3	0.14	4	0.35	2689
Justin Rose	10300	3.46	5	0.25	1	0.21	1	0.16	3	0.16	4	0.34	9589
Xander Schauffele	10100	3.43	5	0.26	1	0.19	2	0.14	2	0.13	4	0.34	3615
Hideki Matsuyama	9900	3.55	5	0.28	0	0.22	2	0.17	3	0.16	4	0.33	6986
Rickie Fowler	9700	3.37	5	0.25	0	0.19	2	0.16	3	0.15	4	0.34	11589
Gary Woodland	9500	3.24	5	0.22	1	0.19	2	0.15	2	0.15	4	0.33	11103
Tony Finau	9300	3.35	5	0.19	2	0.18	2	0.18	1	0.18	4	0.37	7349
Patrick Reed	9200	3.28	4	0.23	1	0.2	2	0.15	2	0.14	5	0.32	9443
Sungjae Im	9100	3.76	4	0.26	1	0.17	2	0.19	2	0.16	5	0.37	2108
Jason Day	9000	3.48	5	0.25	1	0.2	2	0.16	2	0.17	4	0.34	9530
Collin Morikawa	8900	4.06	4	0.33	1	0.15	2	0.09	3	0.29	4	0.39	286
Scottie Scheffler	8800	3.86	5	0.29	1	0.31	2	0.17	2	0.17	4	0.35	374
Cameron Smith	8700	3.32	4	0.25	1	0.18	2	0.16	2	0.15	5	0.3	4351
Joaquin Niemann	8600	3.25	5	0.23	1	0.2	1	0.15	3	0.13	4	0.34	1750
Jordan Spieth	8500	3.43	4	0.25	1	0.25	2	0.17	3	0.14	4	0.35	8388
Brandt Snedeker	8400	3.29	3	0.27	2	0.21	2	0.17	2	0.13	5	0.29	12384
Marc Leishman	8300	3.08	5	0.22	0	0.18	2	0.16	3	0.14	4	0.31	12376
Matthew Wolff	8200	4.03	5	0.19	1	0.15	2	0.19	2	0.32	4	0.48	175
Billy Horschel	8100	3.14	4	0.23	1	0.2	2	0.15	3	0.16	4	0.32	11083
Ryan Palmer	8000	3.31	5	0.24	1	0.21	2	0.15	2	0.16	4	0.32	11451
Lanto Griffin	7900	3.36	5	0.22	1	0.2	2	0.15	2	0.17	4	0.35	1588
Francesco Molinari	7900	3.06	3	0.27	2	0.16	2	0.16	2	0.12	5	0.27	4702
Cameron Champ	7800	3.26	5	0.18	2	0.18	3	0.21	0	0.21	4	0.35	1573
Emiliano Grillo	7800	3.15	4	0.23	1	0.22	2	0.16	3	0.15	4	0.31	4985
Jason Kokrak	7700	3.2	5	0.21	1	0.17	2	0.15	2	0.15	4	0.34	10901
Byeong Hun An	7700	3.09	5	0.2	1	0.2	2	0.14	2	0.14	4	0.33	3640
Bud Cauley	7600	3.24	4	0.22	1	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.12	5	0.33	7299
Russell Knox	7600	3	3	0.22	2	0.2	2	0.16	2	0.11	5	0.27	8893
Phil Mickelson	7500	3.38	5	0.25	0	0.2	2	0.17	3	0.14	4	0.35	10553
Bubba Watson	7500	3.34	5	0.23	2	0.17	2	0.16	1	0.18	4	0.33	10290
Joel Dahmen	7400	3.14	4	0.23	1	0.21	2	0.14	3	0.13	4	0.34	2894
Harris English	7400	3.09	5	0.21	0	0.19	2	0.15	3	0.15	4	0.33	11451
Sebastian Munoz	7300	3.58	5	0.26	0	0.2	2	0.15	3	0.17	4	0.36	2349
Keegan Bradley	7300	3.17	5	0.22	0	0.19	2	0.17	3	0.15	4	0.32	11899
Matt Jones	7300	3.14	5	0.22	0	0.16	2	0.13	3	0.14	4	0.34	11238
Rory Sabbatini	7200	3.31	3	0.24	2	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.15	5	0.32	11747
Nick Watney	7200	3.26	5	0.24	0	0.19	2	0.16	3	0.14	4	0.33	11562
Lucas Glover	7200	3.17	5	0.22	0	0.17	2	0.15	3	0.14	4	0.34	10354
Talor Gooch	7200	3.09	5	0.21	0	0.18	2	0.16	3	0.15	4	0.32	2360
Denny McCarthy	7100	3.48	4	0.26	1	0.2	2	0.15	3	0.15	4	0.38	2478
Cameron Tringale	7100	3.27	3	0.23	2	0.18	2	0.14	1	0.11	6	0.3	13037
Danny Lee	7100	3.24	3	0.24	2	0.19	2	0.17	2	0.13	5	0.31	9407
Sam Burns	7100	3.21	5	0.22	1	0.2	2	0.13	2	0.15	4	0.33	1461
Brendan Steele	7100	3.08	5	0.21	1	0.18	1	0.14	3	0.14	4	0.33	11269
Sam Ryder	7000	3.47	5	0.28	0	0.2	2	0.15	3	0.12	4	0.34	2729
Cameron Davis	7000	3.45	5	0.24	2	0.16	1	0.16	2	0.19	4	0.35	1322
Dylan Frittelli	7000	3.25	5	0.27	0	0.17	2	0.14	3	0.11	4	0.32	1561
Pat Perez	7000	3.21	3	0.24	2	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.13	5	0.3	11080
Jhonattan Vegas	7000	3.11	5	0.21	1	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.15	4	0.33	10028
Sepp Straka	6900	3.52	5	0.25	1	0.25	1	0.13	3	0.17	4	0.34	1380
J.B. Holmes	6900	3.29	5	0.22	2	0.18	1	0.15	2	0.16	4	0.33	10719
Tom Hoge	6900	3.23	3	0.24	2	0.2	2	0.17	2	0.14	5	0.3	6077
Carlos Ortiz	6900	3.18	5	0.22	0	0.16	2	0.14	3	0.14	4	0.34	4288
Harold Varner III	6900	3.16	5	0.22	1	0.18	1	0.15	3	0.13	4	0.34	5825
Scott Stallings	6900	3.01	5	0.21	0	0.16	2	0.14	3	0.13	4	0.32	10924
Grayson Murray	6800	3.38	5	0.22	1	0.18	2	0.16	2	0.15	4	0.38	2779
Kyle Stanley	6800	3.27	4	0.23	1	0.18	2	0.15	2	0.13	5	0.32	10640
Adam Schenk	6800	3.26	5	0.24	1	0.19	1	0.14	3	0.13	4	0.33	2950
Beau Hossler	6800	3.24	5	0.24	0	0.18	2	0.16	3	0.13	4	0.33	3098
Michael Thompson	6800	3.1	3	0.21	2	0.19	2	0.17	2	0.13	5	0.3	9996
Sung Kang	6800	3	5	0.23	0	0.16	2	0.14	3	0.13	4	0.3	7511
Luke List	6700	3.3	5	0.21	2	0.16	2	0.14	1	0.16	4	0.37	6319
Keith Mitchell	6700	3.25	5	0.2	1	0.21	2	0.14	2	0.15	4	0.37	2764
Kevin Streelman	6700	3.18	4	0.22	1	0.18	2	0.15	2	0.13	5	0.32	13115
Bill Haas	6700	3.1	4	0.22	1	0.19	2	0.13	2	0.12	5	0.3	12704
Bronson Burgoon	6700	3.1	5	0.22	0	0.17	2	0.15	3	0.12	4	0.33	3388
Kevin Tway	6700	3.08	5	0.2	1	0.17	2	0.12	2	0.15	4	0.34	5114
C.T. Pan	6700	2.92	3	0.21	2	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.11	5	0.29	3961
Maverick McNealy	6600	4.21	5	0.25	1	0.18	1	0.21	3	0.25	4	0.46	371
Matthew NeSmith	6600	3.6	4	0.25	1	0.22	2	0.16	2	0.12	5	0.36	374
Wyndham Clark	6600	3.55	5	0.22	2	0.19	2	0.13	1	0.17	4	0.41	1420
Chesson Hadley	6600	3.32	4	0.24	1	0.19	2	0.15	2	0.15	5	0.32	7020
Charley Hoffman	6600	3.28	5	0.23	0	0.19	2	0.15	3	0.15	4	0.34	13297
Jimmy Walker	6600	3.21	5	0.24	0	0.19	2	0.15	3	0.13	4	0.32	12559
Peter Uihlein	6600	3.13	5	0.22	1	0.16	1	0.17	3	0.14	4	0.31	2500
Doc Redman	6500	3.81	5	0.34	0	0.16	2	0.17	3	0.18	4	0.32	448
Harry Higgs	6500	3.25	5	0.2	1	0.25	1	0.15	3	0.16	4	0.34	393
Henrik Norlander	6500	3.23	4	0.22	1	0.15	2	0.15	2	0.13	5	0.32	2375
Lucas Bjerregaard	6500	3.17	5	0.28	2	0.15	1	0.12	2	0.09	4	0.29	125
Max Homa	6500	3.09	5	0.22	0	0.15	2	0.12	3	0.14	4	0.33	2557
Stewart Cink	6500	3.08	4	0.24	1	0.19	2	0.17	3	0.14	4	0.29	10275
Bo Hoag	6500	3.07	4	0.18	1	0.12	2	0.1	2	0.1	5	0.36	450
D.J. Trahan	6500	2.96	5	0.2	0	0.17	2	0.15	3	0.12	4	0.32	5083
Steve Stricker	6400	3.69	3	0.28	2	0.26	1	0.15	2	0.16	6	0.31	4348
Scott Harrington	6400	3.48	5	0.26	1	0.18	2	0.11	2	0.13	4	0.38	391
Austin Cook	6400	3.38	4	0.19	1	0.2	2	0.17	2	0.18	5	0.35	2906
Peter Malnati	6400	3.23	3	0.25	2	0.19	2	0.15	1	0.14	6	0.27	5676
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	6400	3.18	3	0.22	2	0.2	2	0.11	2	0.15	5	0.32	1380
Chase Seiffert	6400	3.16	5	0.23	0	0.22	2	0.2	3	0.12	4	0.31	341
Martin Laird	6400	3.16	5	0.22	0	0.17	2	0.15	3	0.14	4	0.34	11995
Patrick Rodgers	6400	3.09	5	0.2	1	0.18	2	0.14	2	0.14	4	0.33	5814
Brandon Wu	6300	3.55	4	0.36	1	0.11	2	0.11	2	0.11	5	0.32	70
Hank Lebioda	6300	3.37	4	0.28	1	0.17	2	0.2	3	0.14	4	0.32	1379
Xinjun Zhang	6300	3.25	5	0.25	0	0.19	2	0.15	3	0.15	4	0.32	1409
Jason Dufner	6300	3.19	4	0.25	1	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.12	5	0.29	11151
Anirban Lahiri	6300	3.18	4	0.25	1	0.18	2	0.15	2	0.12	5	0.29	4444
Roger Sloan	6300	3.15	4	0.21	1	0.21	2	0.13	2	0.12	5	0.32	2197
Patton Kizzire	6300	3.05	4	0.23	1	0.19	2	0.17	3	0.13	4	0.31	5272
Tim Wilkinson	6300	2.95	3	0.26	2	0.19	1	0.13	2	0.11	6	0.24	4255
Rob Oppenheim	6300	2.93	3	0.25	2	0.18	2	0.13	1	0.13	6	0.24	2304
Aaron Baddeley	6200	3.31	4	0.24	1	0.18	2	0.14	2	0.14	5	0.32	11315
Robby Shelton	6200	3.29	4	0.3	1	0.22	2	0.11	2	0.11	5	0.29	391
J.J. Spaun	6200	3.19	4	0.23	1	0.2	2	0.15	2	0.13	5	0.3	4045
Mackenzie Hughes	6200	3.16	5	0.24	0	0.16	2	0.14	3	0.13	4	0.33	4401
Richy Werenski	6200	3.15	4	0.21	1	0.19	2	0.14	2	0.13	5	0.32	3914
Zac Blair	6200	3.08	3	0.25	2	0.18	1	0.15	1	0.11	7	0.24	5671
Kramer Hickok	6200	3.08	4	0.19	1	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.14	5	0.32	1374
Seung-Yul Noh	6200	3.07	5	0.22	0	0.18	2	0.15	3	0.13	4	0.32	7501
Fabian Gomez	6200	3.05	3	0.23	2	0.17	2	0.15	2	0.12	5	0.29	8175
Robert Streb	6200	2.97	4	0.22	1	0.18	2	0.14	3	0.14	4	0.3	9121
Joseph Bramlett	6200	2.77	5	0.19	0	0.19	2	0.12	3	0.11	4	0.31	1381
Sebastian Cappelen	6200	2.71	5	0.24	1	0.11	1	0.1	3	0.03	4	0.3	303
Kristoffer Ventura	6100	3.4	5	0.19	1	0.22	2	0.25	2	0.24	4	0.31	283
Tyler McCumber	6100	3.3	5	0.23	2	0.22	2	0.11	1	0.17	4	0.32	375
Matt Every	6100	3.23	4	0.24	1	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.13	5	0.3	8094
Dominic Bozzelli	6100	3.2	5	0.23	0	0.21	2	0.14	3	0.15	4	0.33	3221
Cameron Percy	6100	3.17	4	0.23	1	0.18	2	0.15	2	0.11	5	0.31	5147
John Huh	6100	3.13	3	0.21	2	0.2	2	0.17	1	0.13	6	0.27	10191
Ryan Brehm	6100	3.09	5	0.2	2	0.12	2	0.16	1	0.17	4	0.33	1495
Michael Gellerman	6100	3.06	4	0.2	1	0.18	2	0.17	3	0.21	4	0.28	323
Scott Brown	6100	3.05	3	0.23	2	0.17	2	0.16	2	0.13	5	0.29	10475
Chris Stroud	6100	3.04	3	0.23	2	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.12	5	0.28	12205
Jim Herman	6100	3.04	4	0.22	1	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.14	5	0.28	7504
Nelson Ledesma	6100	2.84	5	0.19	1	0.11	1	0.21	3	0.14	4	0.29	282
Doug Ghim	6100	2.81	3	0.26	2	0.25	2	0.04	2	0.13	5	0.24	250
Isaiah Salinda	6000	3.51	5	0.2	2	0.13	2	0.16	1	0.17	4	0.44	159
Ben Taylor	6000	3.27	5	0.26	0	0.16	2	0.16	2	0.17	5	0.26	321
Brandon Hagy	6000	3.26	5	0.2	2	0.17	2	0.15	1	0.14	4	0.37	1510
Jamie Lovemark	6000	3.26	5	0.24	1	0.16	2	0.16	2	0.13	4	0.33	5304
Vincent Whaley	6000	3.23	5	0.22	1	0.15	1	0.07	3	0.06	4	0.43	268
Trey Mullinax	6000	3.19	5	0.21	2	0.16	2	0.14	1	0.18	4	0.34	3416
K.J. Choi	6000	3.12	3	0.26	2	0.19	1	0.17	1	0.12	7	0.24	8692
Graham DeLaet	6000	3.12	5	0.22	0	0.19	2	0.15	3	0.15	4	0.32	8668
John Senden	6000	3.12	3	0.22	2	0.19	2	0.14	2	0.15	5	0.3	9101
Kevin Stadler	6000	3.1	3	0.22	2	0.19	2	0.16	2	0.13	5	0.3	6363
Michael Gligic	6000	3.1	5	0.23	0	0.15	2	0.18	3	0.15	4	0.28	305
Rhein Gibson	6000	3.05	5	0.23	0	0.16	2	0.13	3	0.15	4	0.29	1182
Hunter Mahan	6000	3.04	5	0.23	0	0.18	2	0.15	3	0.12	4	0.3	11062
Mark Anderson	6000	2.94	3	0.21	2	0.17	2	0.14	2	0.12	5	0.29	2185
Rafael Campos	6000	2.91	5	0.22	0	0.22	2	0.11	3	0.12	4	0.3	320
Satoshi Kodaira	6000	2.85	3	0.17	2	0.19	2	0.14	1	0.1	6	0.26	1821
Vince Covello	6000	2.82	5	0.22	0	0.22	2	0.12	3	0.03	4	0.36	250
Martin Trainer	6000	2.61	5	0.17	1	0.15	1	0.09	3	0.09	4	0.31	1187
Will Gordon	6000	2.42	5	0.15	1	0.1	2	0.15	2	0.1	4	0.26	125
Chris Baker	6000	2.11	3	0.14	2	0.1	2	0.12	2	0.06	5	0.23	216

Standouts

If you look at the $9,000-plus range, the golfers are relatively close in Expected Birdies. Sungjae Im ($9,100) has a slight lead while Jon Rahm ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,600), and Tiger Woods ($10,800) are essentially tied right behind him.

Collin Morikawa ($8,900) and Matthew Wolff ($8,200) are two of the brightest young stars on Tour and it’s easy to see why when you look at their Expected Birdies. They are in just a handful of golfers that are over four Expected Birdies per round in the entire field. The duo also happens to be in the $8,000 range, making them rather easy to fit into your lineups.

In the under $7,500 range, we have a few familiar young guys paired with one of the oldest competitive guys on Tour. Maverick McNealy ($6,600), Doc Redman ($6,500), and Sebastian Munoz ($7,300) are joined by Steve Stricker ($6,400) with some of the highest upside in this range.

Image Credit: Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Collin Morikawa.

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