Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s ability to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number.
So far in this four-part touchdown regression article series, we discussed the 1. WRS primed to score more touchdowns in 2019, which includes a WR whose ADP has climbed nearly 20 spots since that article was published three weeks ago, 2. Fool’s Gold WRS due for positive TD regression who won’t actually score more, and 3. WRS that will experience negative TD regression, one of whom is a generational talent whose production may take a nose dive.
On 4th down, we’ll take a look at the WRS who are due for negative touchdown regression in 2019, but will actually continue to score a lot of touchdowns. These are WRS that may look like fades at the surface due to regression, but whose situations come together in a way that will allow them to sustain the production.
Wide Receivers Who Scored More Touchdowns Compared to Expectation in 2018
The following are WRs who saw 50-plus targets in 2018 and over-performed their predicted touchdown total by at least 1.0 touchdowns
| Rank | PLAYER | reTRGS | reYDS | reTDS | Expected reTDS | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonio Brown | 169 | 1297 | 15 | 7.322 | -7.678 |
| 2 | John Ross | 58 | 210 | 7 | 1.045 | -5.955 |
| 3 | Mike Williams | 66 | 664 | 10 | 4.127 | -5.873 |
| 4 | Calvin Ridley | 92 | 821 | 10 | 4.914 | -5.086 |
| 5 | Davante Adams | 169 | 1386 | 13 | 7.945 | -5.055 |
| 6 | Anthony Miller | 54 | 423 | 7 | 2.584 | -4.416 |
| 7 | Zay Jones | 102 | 652 | 8 | 3.611 | -4.389 |
| 8 | Tyler Lockett | 71 | 965 | 10 | 6.174 | -3.826 |
| 9 | Kenny Stills | 64 | 553 | 7 | 3.374 | -3.626 |
| 10 | Stefon Diggs | 148 | 1021 | 9 | 5.642 | -3.358 |
| 11 | Tyreek Hill | 137 | 1479 | 12 | 8.98 | -3.02 |
| 12 | Chris Conley | 52 | 334 | 5 | 1.985 | -3.015 |
| 13 | Trey Burton | 77 | 569 | 6 | 3.33 | -2.67 |
| 14 | Josh Reynolds | 53 | 402 | 5 | 2.449 | -2.551 |
| 15 | Cooper Kupp | 56 | 566 | 6 | 3.561 | -2.439 |
| 16 | David Moore | 52 | 445 | 5 | 2.762 | -2.238 |
| 17 | Curtis Samuel | 65 | 494 | 5 | 2.949 | -2.051 |
| 18 | Chris Godwin | 95 | 842 | 7 | 5.025 | -1.975 |
| 19 | Larry Fitzgerald | 112 | 734 | 6 | 4.065 | -1.935 |
| 20 | Marvin Jones | 62 | 508 | 5 | 3.083 | -1.917 |
| 21 | A.J. Green | 77 | 694 | 6 | 4.205 | -1.795 |
| 22 | DeAndre Hopkins | 163 | 1572 | 11 | 9.319 | -1.681 |
| 23 | Antonio Callaway | 81 | 586 | 5 | 3.401 | -1.599 |
| 24 | Robby Anderson | 93 | 752 | 6 | 4.419 | -1.581 |
| 25 | Doug Baldwin | 73 | 618 | 5 | 3.721 | -1.279 |
| 26 | Kendrick Bourne | 66 | 487 | 4 | 2.888 | -1.112 |
| 27 | Julian Edelman | 108 | 850 | 6 | 4.925 | -1.075 |
| 28 | Demaryius Thomas | 89 | 677 | 5 | 3.942 | -1.058 |
