After a few weeks with debut courses on Tour we’re back with a familiar venue in TPC Deere Run. We’re looking at a 7,100-yard par-71 course out in Illinois for the John Deere Classic as our last stop before The Open Championship. The course features bentgrass greens that are around tour average at 6,000 square feet. The course is dotted with 78 bunkers and four water hazards. For more about the course, head over to yesterday’s article.
Checking the Chalk
The trio of golfers all the way at the top of the field have a combined age of 63 years old. Viktor Hovland ($10,900), Collin Morikawa ($10,700), and Matthew Wolff ($10,500) are the most expensive golfers in the field this week. From a recent form perspective and a raw talent perspective, it’s hard to argue against any of these guys. All Hovland has done is set the US Open amateur scoring record and make four straight cuts since the start of June. Six of his past eight rounds have been in the 60s. His other two rounds? 70 exactly. Morikawa was a lip-out away from a playoff last week with eventual winner Wolff. These guys are young, and they are good. Morikawa is at the top of the heap in my pricing model with an expected $11,700 price tag.
Joaquin Niemann ($10,200) might seem like the forgotten man here in his second year but he’s being talked up plenty and could be the highest owned of these young guys this week. Over his past four events, Niemann has hit at least two-thirds of his GIR in every start, including two straight events over 80% now. Out of those 16 rounds, 12 have wound up in the 60s.
Zach Johnson ($9,600) is the course history darling. Dating back to 2012, he has made every cut in his seven tries and has a victory to go along with four other top-5 finishes in that span. He’s been so-so lately, though, as he hasn’t hit more than 60% of his greens in regulation since the Wells Fargo back in the first week of May. From a fit perspective, he obviously makes sense here but the fact that he hasn’t finished in the DK bonus since April is concerning.
GPP Plays
Sungjae Im ($9,700) has been all that was advertised, as well, through the start of the 2019 season. He’s had his share of ups and downs but he has strung five straight cuts together including finishes inside of the top 21. In each of his past four starts, he’s been scoring well. Im has had at least three rounds in the 60s over that span. He’s a great upside play this week if he can continue to string birdies together like that. My pricing model has Im at $10,000 so we are getting a fair bit of value here.
We might be staying on him too long, but Cameron Tringale ($7,700) makes sense again this week. He has continued his solid tee-to-green game, gaining an average of 2.74 strokes in that category over his past five starts. That’s more than 3 strokes better than his average in our database. 
tringale
Peter Malnati ($7,900) is another interesting play this week. Malnati has made a half dozen straight cuts now and has hit over 60% of GIR over that span. During that span, he’s gaining 2.5 strokes tee-to-green compared to his average of -1.78 in his previous 117 events in our database. That’s been accompanied by hitting an average of an extra 1.5 greens per round.
Cash Locks
So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 45/50 (90%) made cuts, 34/50 (68%) top 30s, and 15/50 (30%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:
- Collin Morikawa ($10,700)
- Sungjae Im ($9,700)
Ownership Projections and Model Results - John Deere Classic
Final run of ownership projections| Name | DK$ | Avg | Model Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Hovland | 10900.00 | 21.5 | 0.91 |
| Collin Morikawa | 10700.00 | 16.5 | 1.00 |
| Matthew Wolff | 10500.00 | 15.5 | 0.81 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 10200.00 | 28.5 | 0.85 |
| Lucas Glover | 9800.00 | 9.0 | 0.80 |
| Sungjae Im | 9700.00 | 21.6 | 0.83 |
| Zach Johnson | 9600.00 | 13.5 | 0.70 |
| Charles Howell III | 9500.00 | 11.1 | 0.80 |
| Brian Harman | 9400.00 | 13.5 | 0.72 |
| Daniel Berger | 9300.00 | 5.3 | 0.71 |
| Ryan Moore | 9200.00 | 13.7 | 0.75 |
| Sam Burns | 9100.00 | 11.1 | 0.77 |
| Wyndham Clark | 9000.00 | 14.7 | 0.83 |
| Kevin Tway | 8900.00 | 11.3 | 0.77 |
| Kyle Stanley | 8800.00 | 9.5 | 0.62 |
| Bud Cauley | 8700.00 | 7.8 | 0.73 |
| Ryan Palmer | 8600.00 | 9.6 | 0.70 |
| Nate Lashley | 8500.00 | 10.8 | 0.84 |
| Joel Dahmen | 8400.00 | 16.0 | 0.69 |
| Scott Brown | 8300.00 | 15.5 | 0.69 |
| Martin Laird | 8200.00 | 5.5 | 0.66 |
| Jason Dufner | 8100.00 | 7.0 | 0.70 |
| Nick Watney | 8000.00 | 2.7 | 0.70 |
| Peter Malnati | 7900.00 | 10.5 | 0.75 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 7900.00 | 6.0 | 0.74 |
| J.T. Poston | 7800.00 | 10.7 | 0.73 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 7800.00 | 7.9 | 0.61 |
| Cameron Tringale | 7700.00 | 16.5 | 0.79 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 7700.00 | 15.5 | 0.81 |
| Talor Gooch | 7700.00 | 4.5 | 0.76 |
| Danny Lee | 7600.00 | 9.2 | 0.65 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 7600.00 | 6.5 | 0.74 |
| Cameron Champ | 7600.00 | 3.4 | 0.52 |
| Sam Ryder | 7500.00 | 16.5 | 0.69 |
| Troy Merritt | 7500.00 | 13.7 | 0.73 |
| Denny McCarthy | 7500.00 | 8.9 | 0.75 |
| Pat Perez | 7500.00 | 5.4 | 0.67 |
| Harold Varner III | 7400.00 | 9.6 | 0.68 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 7400.00 | 7.5 | 0.78 |
| Brian Stuard | 7400.00 | 6.0 | 0.75 |
| Nick Taylor | 7400.00 | 1.5 | 0.73 |
| Ryan Armour | 7300.00 | 4.4 | 0.65 |
| Joey Garber | 7300.00 | 3.7 | 0.62 |
| Sepp Straka | 7300.00 | 3.6 | 0.67 |
| Beau Hossler | 7300.00 | 3.3 | 0.62 |
| Austin Cook | 7300.00 | 2.0 | 0.59 |
| Johnson Wagner | 7200.00 | 11.0 | 0.71 |
| Doc Redman | 7200.00 | 5.1 | 0.73 |
| Shawn Stefani | 7200.00 | 1.8 | 0.69 |
| Brice Garnett | 7200.00 | 1.2 | 0.63 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 7200.00 | 1.1 | 0.66 |
| Hank Lebioda | 7100.00 | 12.0 | 0.74 |
| Roger Sloan | 7100.00 | 5.0 | 0.65 |
| Russell Henley | 7100.00 | 2.8 | 0.59 |
| Matt Jones | 7100.00 | 1.5 | 0.72 |
| Andrew Landry | 7100.00 | 1.2 | 0.60 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 7100.00 | 0.8 | 0.64 |
| Michael Thompson | 7000.00 | 4.3 | 0.75 |
| Andres Romero | 7000.00 | 2.4 | 0.59 |
| Scott Stallings | 7000.00 | 1.7 | 0.64 |
| Luke Donald | 7000.00 | 1.7 | 0.59 |
| Adam Long | 7000.00 | 1.5 | 0.66 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 7000.00 | 0.9 | 0.68 |
| Robert Streb | 6900.00 | 2.6 | 0.60 |
| Matt Every | 6900.00 | 1.9 | 0.70 |
| Peter Uihlein | 6900.00 | 1.7 | 0.62 |
| Zack Sucher | 6900.00 | 1.1 | 0.58 |
| Kramer Hickok | 6900.00 | 0.9 | 0.63 |
| David Hearn | 6900.00 | 0.8 | 0.59 |
| Bill Haas | 6900.00 | 0.7 | 0.57 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 6800.00 | 1.8 | 0.73 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 6800.00 | 1.6 | 0.66 |
| Trey Mullinax | 6800.00 | 1.4 | 0.65 |
| Seamus Power | 6800.00 | 1.3 | 0.49 |
| Wes Roach | 6800.00 | 0.9 | 0.65 |
| Adam Schenk | 6800.00 | 0.8 | 0.65 |
| Roberto Diaz | 6800.00 | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| Adam Svensson | 6700.00 | 5.9 | 0.64 |
| Dominic Bozzelli | 6700.00 | 2.7 | 0.61 |
| Josh Teater | 6700.00 | 2.3 | 0.66 |
| Curtis Luck | 6700.00 | 1.7 | 0.55 |
| Roberto Castro | 6700.00 | 1.5 | 0.54 |
| Fabian Gomez | 6700.00 | 1.5 | 0.54 |
| Alex Prugh | 6700.00 | 0.8 | 0.64 |
| Cameron Davis | 6700.00 | 0.8 | 0.59 |
| Tom Hoge | 6600.00 | 2.3 | 0.60 |
| Stewart Cink | 6600.00 | 1.6 | 0.67 |
| Ted Potter Jr. | 6600.00 | 0.9 | 0.45 |
| Chris Stroud | 6600.00 | 0.9 | 0.53 |
| Ollie Schniederjans | 6600.00 | 0.8 | 0.54 |
| Ryan Blaum | 6600.00 | 0.7 | 0.61 |
| Tyler Duncan | 6600.00 | 0.7 | 0.60 |
| Brandon Harkins | 6600.00 | 0.7 | 0.55 |
| D.J. Trahan | 6500.00 | 1.2 | 0.71 |
| Sam Saunders | 6500.00 | 1.2 | 0.55 |
| Chad Campbell | 6500.00 | 1.2 | 0.46 |
| John Catlin | 6500.00 | 1.0 | 0.46 |
| Justin Suh | 6500.00 | 0.7 | 0.63 |
| Ben Crane | 6500.00 | 0.7 | 0.58 |
| Ben Silverman | 6500.00 | 0.1 | 0.58 |
| Jim Knous | 6500.00 | 0.1 | 0.60 |
| Martin Piller | 6500.00 | 0.1 | 0.56 |
| Alex Cejka | 6500.00 | 0.1 | 0.45 |
| Michael Kim | 6400.00 | 2.2 | 0.46 |
| Chase Wright | 6400.00 | 1.4 | 0.61 |
| Richy Werenski | 6400.00 | 1.3 | 0.50 |
| Arjun Atwal | 6400.00 | 1.3 | 0.49 |
| David Lingmerth | 6400.00 | 0.7 | 0.63 |
| Scott Langley | 6400.00 | 0.7 | 0.50 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6400.00 | 0.7 | 0.49 |
| Brendon Todd | 6400.00 | 0.1 | 0.49 |
| Sang-Moon Bae | 6400.00 | 0.1 | 0.49 |
| Tyrone Van Aswegen | 6300.00 | 2.3 | 0.52 |
| Robert Garrigus | 6300.00 | 2.3 | 0.50 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 6300.00 | 0.9 | 0.29 |
| Whee Kim | 6300.00 | 0.8 | 0.32 |
| Derek Fathauer | 6300.00 | 0.7 | 0.46 |
| Kelly Kraft | 6300.00 | 0.7 | 0.44 |
| Julian Etulain | 6300.00 | 0.1 | 0.54 |
| Cody Gribble | 6300.00 | 0.1 | 0.51 |
| Anders Albertson | 6300.00 | 0.1 | 0.48 |
| Boo Weekley | 6200.00 | 1.4 | 0.62 |
| Austin Connelly | 6200.00 | 1.1 | 0.12 |
| Billy Hurley | 6200.00 | 0.7 | 0.46 |
| Tom Lovelady | 6200.00 | 0.7 | 0.46 |
| Smylie Kaufman | 6200.00 | 0.7 | 0.00 |
| George McNeill | 6200.00 | 0.1 | 0.57 |
| John Senden | 6200.00 | 0.1 | 0.49 |
| J.J. Henry | 6200.00 | 0.1 | 0.46 |
| Chris Thompson | 6200.00 | 0.1 | 0.46 |
| Jose De Jesus Rodriguez | 6200.00 | 0.1 | 0.46 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.58 |
| Ricky Barnes | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.56 |
| Parker McLachlin | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.50 |
| Hunter Mahan | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.49 |
| Austen Truslow | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.46 |
| Brady Schnell | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.45 |
| Seth Reeves | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.44 |
| Will Claxton | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.39 |
| Daniel Chopra | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.39 |
| Kris Blanks | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.34 |
| John Chin | 6100.00 | 0.1 | 0.33 |
| Dylan Meyer | 6000.00 | 1.1 | 0.59 |
| Steve Allan | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.29 |
| Chad Collins | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.50 |
| Fredrik Jacobson | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.48 |
| Kyle Jones | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.47 |
| Jim Herman | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.45 |
| Tim Herron | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.44 |
| Martin Trainer | 6000.00 | 0.2 | 0.43 |
| Chris Couch | 6000.00 | 0.1 | 0.51 |
| Dicky Pride | 6000.00 | 0.1 | 0.48 |
| Brian Davis | 6000.00 | 0.1 | 0.47 |
| Darin Fisher | 6000.00 | 0.1 | 0.29 |
| Ryan Vermeer | 6000.00 | 0.0 | 0.38 |
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Zach Johnson.
—
NFL subscribers, the time to get into PGA DFS is now! For a limited time, upgrade your subscription by adding a 2019 Rest of Season PGA subscription at a $10 discount. Click here for details!
